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Prediction markets for OpenAI for Countries

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.02%chance

9257160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143218

70492

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date

Aug 8, 7:45 PMDec 31, 8:44 PM

329889

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

Before September 2026

Before August 2026

Before July 2026

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before 2026

Before February 2026

Before March 2026

Before April 2026

Before May 2026

Before June 2026

50

45

41

29

20

12

3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?

Nov 1, 12:50 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

6.57%chance

192787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2678

765

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.96%chance

131199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1689

592

Which countries will have a top 3 AI lab at EOY2027?

Nov 27, 6:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

191150

OptionProbability

US

China

UK

EU

UAE

East/South-East Asia excl. China

Israel

93

29

6

5

4

3

2

Will a non-Anthropic company make a Mythos-class model generally available worldwide in 2026?

Jun 13, 3:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.58%chance

15580

OptionVotes

NO

YES

244

41

Will US government action cause a non-Anthropic company to restrict availability of a model in 2026?

Jun 13, 3:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.67%chance

6249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

60

Will the US Government implement "Universal Basic Compute" by 2030?

Feb 10, 10:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.05%chance

9204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

35

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Will the top public OpenAI assistant rate China as more military powerful than the US in 2020?

May 27, 5:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.97%chance

242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

88

Will China or the US announce ‘AGI’ first?

Dec 18, 3:27 AMDec 18, 3:27 AM

59.84%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

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