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Prediction markets for OpenAI for Countries

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.55%chance

10358928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144964

69643

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date

Aug 8, 7:45 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

4414596

OptionProbability

Before June 2027

Before May 2027

Before April 2027

Before March 2027

Before February 2027

Before 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before 2026

Before February 2026

Before March 2026

Before April 2026

Before May 2026

Before June 2026

Before July 2026

Before August 2026

Before September 2026

Before October 2026

50

45

33

27

21

12

11

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

GPT 6.2+ (OpenAI) release date

Oct 28, 3:52 PMFeb 16, 4:59 AM

285757

OptionProbability

Before 2027-02-16

Before 2027-01-16

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2027-02-01

Before 2026-12-01

Before 2026-12-16

Before 2026-11-16

99

96

95

95

94

93

81

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.77%chance

233562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2275

637

Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?

Nov 1, 12:50 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

5.89%chance

223118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2939

748

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.39%chance

131949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2439

410

What was the motive of Abdulrahman Alfozan when placing a bug at OpenAI?

Oct 14, 4:04 AMOct 21, 4:01 AM

8308

OptionProbability

Not trying to steal secrets/IP, recording for other reasons

Acting as a spy at the direction of another corporation

Acting as a spy at the direction of a foreign country

Acting on his own initiative to steal secrets/IP

Whistleblowing/leaking

Alfozan is innocent, did not place the bug

54

30

6

5

3

2

OpenAI or Microsoft offers or provides AI infra for an LLM in China before 3/2027

Mar 22, 3:15 PMMar 2, 6:59 AM

18.66%chance

7209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

82

Will the US Government implement "Universal Basic Compute" by 2030?

Feb 10, 10:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.05%chance

9204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

35

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Will China or the US announce ‘AGI’ first?

Dec 18, 3:27 AMDec 18, 3:27 AM

59.84%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMAug 20, 7:59 PM

68.73%chance

212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

97

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