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Prediction markets for OpenAI for Countries

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67%chance

8456997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143166

70518

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date

Aug 8, 7:45 PMDec 31, 8:44 PM

207697

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

Before September 2026

Before August 2026

Before July 2026

Before June 2026

Before May 2026

Before April 2026

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before 2026

Before February 2026

Before March 2026

58

54

49

44

41

37

31

25

18

9

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?

Nov 1, 12:50 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

6.58%chance

172783

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2674

766

Which countries will have a top 3 AI lab at EOY2027?

Nov 27, 6:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18955

OptionProbability

US

China

UK

EU

UAE

East/South-East Asia excl. China

Israel

97

40

19

11

4

3

2

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.64%chance

10746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

680

Which Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?

Dec 25, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8260

OptionProbability

The AI bubble will NOT pop.

China will dominate the global economy.

The trade war will broaden.

More and more governments will hit a debt limit.

China will blockade Taiwan.

80

72

66

44

3

OpenAI or Microsoft offers or provides AI infra for an LLM in China before 3/2027

Mar 22, 3:15 PMMar 2, 6:59 AM

18.66%chance

7209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

82

Will the US Government implement "Universal Basic Compute" by 2030?

Feb 10, 10:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.05%chance

9204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

35

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Will the top public OpenAI assistant rate China as more military powerful than the US in 2020?

May 27, 5:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.97%chance

242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

88

Will China or the US announce ‘AGI’ first?

Dec 18, 3:27 AMDec 18, 3:27 AM

59.84%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

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