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Prediction markets for OpenAI GPT

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

Mar 16, 4:29 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

11.46%chance

739676

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2266

701

GPT 5.5 (OpenAI) release date

Dec 14, 6:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

458606

OptionProbability

Before December 2026

Before October 2026

Before November 2026

Before September 2026

Before July 2026

Before August 2026

Before June 2026

Before May 2026

Before April 2026

Before 2026

Before February 2026

Before March 2026

87

85

85

82

79

79

71

67

2

0

0

0

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date

Aug 8, 7:45 PMDec 31, 8:44 PM

207697

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

Before September 2026

Before August 2026

Before July 2026

Before June 2026

Before May 2026

Before April 2026

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before 2026

Before February 2026

Before March 2026

58

54

49

44

41

37

31

25

18

9

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?

Dec 18, 3:13 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

99%chance

293564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

10

Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?

Aug 9, 11:38 PMAug 1, 11:37 PM

41.46%chance

192131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

842

Will OpenAI's autonomous agent be based on GPT-4?

Feb 25, 12:27 PMMar 3, 2:59 PM

33.96%chance

261629

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1562

359

[Metaculus] Will OpenAI claim GPT-5 is AGI within 30 days after its release?

Oct 7, 12:41 PMJan 2, 11:00 AM

2.62%chance

10864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

93

Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?

Apr 25, 1:46 AMOct 1, 10:59 PM

11.92%chance

9785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

388

70

Will a US entity force OpenAI to delete any mainline GPT models by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 11:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.38%chance

9238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

283

155

When will OpenAI release GPT-6?

Feb 9, 1:47 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

395

OptionProbability

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

2029+ (inclusive)

82

75

50

28

OpenAI will acheive market dominance with GPT (AKA monopoly) and then INCREASE prices within the next 10 years

Jul 18, 6:19 AMJul 25, 6:59 AM

27.28%chance

495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

61

Do OpenAI's o*-series models share a common lineage with GPT-4o?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMDec 31, 7:38 AM

55.24%chance

231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

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