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Prediction markets for OpenAI GPT

Will the leaked OpenAI "GPT 5.6 Sol" proof that nonsofic groups exist be verified as correct?

Aug 1, 6:35 AMAug 1, 6:31 AM

97.6%chance

1014031

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6376

157

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date

Aug 8, 7:45 PMDec 31, 8:44 PM

3612813

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before 2026

Before February 2026

Before March 2026

Before April 2026

Before May 2026

Before June 2026

Before July 2026

Before August 2026

Before September 2026

39

35

30

6

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will OpenAI release a model called GPT-5o in 2026?

Mar 28, 5:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

5011418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8649

787

GPT 7 (OpenAI) release date

Sep 5, 4:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

374098

OptionProbability

Before January 2028

Before December 2027

Before November 2027

Before October 2027

Before September 2027

Before August 2027

Before June 2027

Before July 2027

Before May 2027

Before April 2027

Before March 2027

Before February 2027

Before January 2027

83

80

76

71

66

53

30

30

27

23

16

12

4

GPT 6.1+ (OpenAI) release date

Sep 9, 5:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

162339

OptionProbability

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-12-16

Before 2026-12-01

Before 2026-11-16

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-10-16

Before 2026-10-01

94

88

78

67

47

36

3

Will OpenAI's autonomous agent be based on GPT-4?

Feb 25, 12:27 PMMar 3, 2:59 PM

33.96%chance

261629

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1562

359

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

8940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?

Apr 25, 1:46 AMOct 1, 10:59 PM

10.58%chance

10816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

419

66

Will it be revealed that OpenAI seek approval from the US government before releasing GPT-4 by the end of 2026?

Feb 17, 1:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.97%chance

17407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

243

101

Will a US entity force OpenAI to delete any mainline GPT models by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 11:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.38%chance

9238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

283

155

OpenAI will acheive market dominance with GPT (AKA monopoly) and then INCREASE prices within the next 10 years

Jul 18, 6:19 AMJul 25, 6:59 AM

27.28%chance

495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

61

Do OpenAI's o*-series models share a common lineage with GPT-4o?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMDec 31, 7:38 AM

55.24%chance

231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

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