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Prediction markets for OpenAI GPT

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date

Aug 8, 7:45 PMDec 31, 8:44 PM

329889

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

Before September 2026

Before August 2026

Before July 2026

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before 2026

Before February 2026

Before March 2026

Before April 2026

Before May 2026

Before June 2026

50

45

41

29

20

12

3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will OpenAI release a model called GPT-5o in 2026?

Mar 28, 5:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.48%chance

496465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3764

863

Will OpenAI publicly release a new flagship ChatGPT model (e.g. GPT-6) by 1July 2026 (23:59 UTC)?

Feb 4, 7:17 AMJul 1, 11:58 PM

4.85%chance

193929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

443

23

Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?

Aug 9, 11:38 PMAug 1, 11:37 PM

20.7%chance

233320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1957

511

Will OpenAI's autonomous agent be based on GPT-4?

Feb 25, 12:27 PMMar 3, 2:59 PM

33.96%chance

261629

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1562

359

[Metaculus] Will OpenAI claim GPT-5 is AGI within 30 days after its release?

Oct 7, 12:41 PMJan 2, 11:00 AM

2.62%chance

10864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

93

Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on "GPT" (in the U.S.)?

Apr 25, 1:46 AMOct 1, 10:59 PM

11.92%chance

9785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

388

70

Will OpenAI publicly release a GPT-5.6 model by August 31, 2026?

Jun 15, 7:16 PMSep 1, 12:00 AM

92.52%chance

11350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

216

85

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.95%chance

5261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

319

31

OpenAI will acheive market dominance with GPT (AKA monopoly) and then INCREASE prices within the next 10 years

Jul 18, 6:19 AMJul 25, 6:59 AM

27.28%chance

495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

61

Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?

Apr 29, 9:35 AMAug 31, 10:00 PM

23%chance

676

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

81

Do OpenAI's o*-series models share a common lineage with GPT-4o?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMDec 31, 7:38 AM

55.24%chance

231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

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