OpenAI O1 News

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.76%chance

147124531

OptionVotes

YES

14625

9119

Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?

Dec 14, 1:06 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

15.31%chance

2629485

OptionVotes

YES

23517

4252

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

376881

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025?

Mar 20, 2:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.35%chance

343752

OptionVotes

YES

1245

808

10 x State of AI Report 2024 Predictions about 2025

Oct 10, 8:29 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM

243209

OptionProbability

5. An open source alternative to OpenAI o1 surpasses it across a range of reasoning benchmarks.

6. Challengers fail to make any meaningful dent in NVIDIA’s market position.

10. A video game based around interacting with GenAI-based elements will achieve break-out status.

2. An app or website created solely by someone with no coding ability will go viral (e.g. App Store Top-100).

9. A research paper generated by an AI Scientist is accepted at a major ML conference or workshop.

3. Frontier labs implement meaningful changes to data collection practices after cases begin reaching trial.

4. Early EU AI Act implementation ends up softer than anticipated after lawmakers worry they’ve overreached.

7. Levels of investment in humanoids will trail off, as companies struggle to achieve product-market fit.

8. Strong results from Apple’s on-device research accelerates momentum around personal on-device AI.

1. A $10B+ investment from a sovereign state into a US large AI lab invokes national security review.

Does O3 use the same base model as O1? (Conditional on any OpenAI confirmation)

Jan 14, 12:36 PMDec 31, 1:00 AM

45.65%chance

131852

OptionVotes

YES

1091

916

Will "OpenAI o1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 13, 12:59 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.06%chance

71050

OptionVotes

YES

1703

917

Will a single model have all the upsides o1-style RL with none of the downsides at 2027?

Nov 20, 5:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

58.13%chance

10822

OptionVotes

YES

1178

849

Will SotA on PaperBench (Code-Dev) surpass 75% in 2025?

Apr 7, 1:59 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM

40%chance

9755

OptionVotes

YES

5735

4626

Will anyone be removed from "OpenAI o1 Contributions" by 2027, if the page still exists?

Sep 13, 4:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.67%chance

6440

OptionVotes

YES

1027

974

Will OpenAI add image generation capabilities to its o1/o3/... series models before 2026?

Jan 19, 2:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

74.58%chance

14403

OptionVotes

YES

171

Will OpenAI increase the cost of its ChatGPT o1 Pro Subscription Plan this year?

Jan 6, 11:20 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

37.12%chance

10203

OptionVotes

YES

130

OpenAI O1 News

Prediction markets for OpenAI O1

Prediction markets for OpenAI O1

Prediction markets for OpenAI O1

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025?

10 x State of AI Report 2024 Predictions about 2025

Does O3 use the same base model as O1? (Conditional on any OpenAI confirmation)

Will "OpenAI o1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Will a single model have all the upsides o1-style RL with none of the downsides at 2027?

Will SotA on PaperBench (Code-Dev) surpass 75% in 2025?

Will anyone be removed from "OpenAI o1 Contributions" by 2027, if the page still exists?

Will OpenAI add image generation capabilities to its o1/o3/... series models before 2026?

Will OpenAI increase the cost of its ChatGPT o1 Pro Subscription Plan this year?

Latest stories