OpenAI O1 News

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

397377

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

Will a single model have all the upsides o1-style RL with none of the downsides at 2027?

Nov 20, 5:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

59.19%chance

143877

OptionVotes

YES

1204

830

When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]

Jul 30, 3:46 PMJan 1, 4:44 PM

61672

OptionProbability

Before 2035

Before 2034

Before 2033

Before 2032

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2026

When will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]

Jul 30, 3:41 PMJul 30, 3:31 PM

111459

OptionProbability

Before H2 2030

Before H1 2030

Before H2 2029

Before H1 2029

Before H2 2028

Before H1 2028

Before H2 2027

Before H1 2027

Before H2 2026

Before H1 2026

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

Feb 6, 11:09 PMFeb 6, 10:38 PM

101408

OptionProbability

5.4

5.5

5.6

6.5

5.7

5.8

5.9

100

Will anyone be removed from "OpenAI o1 Contributions" by 2027, if the page still exists?

Sep 13, 4:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.67%chance

6440

OptionVotes

YES

1027

974

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10138

OptionProbability

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

GSD at work LLC receives $500+ in total payments through OpenAI marketplace/routing system by end-2027?

Aug 16, 9:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.4%chance

4133

OptionVotes

YES

114

Two+ of OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind adopt new MonitorBench for monitor-aware evasion by '27?

Apr 14, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

OpenAI O1 News

Prediction markets for OpenAI O1

Prediction markets for OpenAI O1

Prediction markets for OpenAI O1

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Will a single model have all the upsides o1-style RL with none of the downsides at 2027?

When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]

When will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

Will anyone be removed from "OpenAI o1 Contributions" by 2027, if the page still exists?

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

GSD at work LLC receives $500+ in total payments through OpenAI marketplace/routing system by end-2027?

Two+ of OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind adopt new MonitorBench for monitor-aware evasion by '27?

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