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Prediction markets for OpenAI Operator

What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2315475

OptionProbability

20-30%

30-40%

40-50%

10-20%

50-60%

<10%

60-70%

70-80%

80-90%

≥90%

21

20

15

11

10

7

6

5

3

2

Will the GitHub Copilot Litigation Succeed?

Dec 8, 2:52 AMDec 7, 5:00 AM

7.52%chance

12411624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5589

1347

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

26.5%chance

617440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3369

1782

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.72%chance

192798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2886

346

Will Microsoft successfully build a nuclear power plant before OpenAI claims to have AGI?

Jan 9, 5:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.5%chance

532129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

865

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.19%chance

211719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1987

795

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.13%chance

121149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1639

610

Will either OpenAI or Anthropic move their main operations away from the US by EOY 2029?

Nov 17, 5:44 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

10%chance

7517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will OpenAI release a high-quality AI generated movie by the end of 2028?

Nov 19, 1:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.11%chance

14487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1213

928

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

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