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Prediction markets for OpenAI Operator

What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3128620

OptionProbability

<10%

10-20%

20-30%

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

60-70%

70-80%

80-90%

≥90%

71

8

5

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

Will the GitHub Copilot Litigation Succeed?

Dec 8, 2:52 AMDec 7, 5:00 AM

7.52%chance

12411624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5589

1347

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

26.23%chance

637472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3396

1772

Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?

Aug 6, 8:03 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

16.95%chance

342680

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2726

1335

US government nationalizes OpenAI or Anthropic before 2029?

Jul 20, 3:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.29%chance

162142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2267

441

Will Microsoft successfully build a nuclear power plant before OpenAI claims to have AGI?

Jan 9, 5:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.5%chance

532129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

865

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.96%chance

131199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1689

592

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Will either OpenAI or Anthropic move their main operations away from the US by EOY 2029?

Nov 17, 5:44 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

10%chance

7517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will OpenAI release a high-quality AI generated movie by the end of 2028?

Nov 19, 1:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.11%chance

14487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1213

928

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Will OpenAI cease operations or acquired for less than $500 billion before 2040?

Jul 27, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.68%chance

334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

129

78

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