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Prediction markets for OpenAI Operator

What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1713464

OptionProbability

30-40%

40-50%

20-30%

50-60%

10-20%

60-70%

<10%

70-80%

80-90%

≥90%

20

17

16

12

10

7

6

6

3

2

Will the GitHub Copilot Litigation Succeed?

Dec 8, 2:52 AMDec 7, 5:00 AM

9.58%chance

12410624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4589

1439

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

15.73%chance

536624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4982

1365

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Sep 28, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.74%chance

122974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1067

937

Will Microsoft successfully build a nuclear power plant before OpenAI claims to have AGI?

Jan 9, 5:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.5%chance

532129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

865

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.19%chance

211719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1987

795

Will there be a new AI Startup primarily focused on using AI models for computer control before the end of March?

Mar 4, 2:01 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

39.68%chance

141178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

741

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.64%chance

10746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

680

Will either OpenAI or Anthropic move their main operations away from the US by EOY 2029?

Nov 17, 5:44 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

10%chance

7517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will OpenAI release a high-quality AI generated movie by the end of 2028?

Nov 19, 1:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.11%chance

14487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1213

928

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

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