OpenAI Operator News

Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?

Sep 8, 10:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.21%chance

815736539

OptionVotes

YES

8882

1142

What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3233729

OptionProbability

<10%

10-20%

20-30%

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

60-70%

70-80%

80-90%

≥90%

Will the GitHub Copilot Litigation Succeed?

Dec 8, 2:52 AMDec 7, 5:00 AM

7.52%chance

12411624

OptionVotes

YES

5589

1347

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

10.48%chance

7310686

OptionVotes

YES

6576

1130

Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?

Aug 6, 8:03 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

18.25%chance

598915

OptionVotes

YES

5218

3860

Will Microsoft successfully build a nuclear power plant before OpenAI claims to have AGI?

Jan 9, 5:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.11%chance

542139

OptionVotes

YES

1045

875

Will OpenAI and Anthropic both have moved off Unix-based operating systems by end of 2027?

Nov 6, 12:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45%chance

16782

OptionVotes

YES

351

171

Will either OpenAI or Anthropic move their main operations away from the US by EOY 2029?

Nov 17, 5:44 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

10%chance

7517

OptionVotes

YES

300

Will OpenAI release a high-quality AI generated movie by the end of 2028?

Nov 19, 1:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.11%chance

14487

OptionVotes

YES

1213

928

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

Will OpenAI cease operations or acquired for less than $500 billion before 2040?

Jul 27, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.68%chance

334

OptionVotes

YES

129

2027 Frontier AI Lab props

Oct 13, 2:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

Will any single AI lab hold the #1 position on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index for at least 70 consecutive days during 2027?

Will Anthropic's Q4 2027 GAAP revenue exceed OpenAI's by >20%?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI report positive GAAP operating income in any quarter of 2027?

Will a lab other than OpenAI or Anthropic lead the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index for 30 consecutive days in 2027?

OpenAI Operator News

Prediction markets for OpenAI Operator

Prediction markets for OpenAI Operator

Prediction markets for OpenAI Operator

Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?

What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?

Will the GitHub Copilot Litigation Succeed?

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?

Will Microsoft successfully build a nuclear power plant before OpenAI claims to have AGI?

Will OpenAI and Anthropic both have moved off Unix-based operating systems by end of 2027?

Will either OpenAI or Anthropic move their main operations away from the US by EOY 2029?

Will OpenAI release a high-quality AI generated movie by the end of 2028?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Will OpenAI cease operations or acquired for less than $500 billion before 2040?

2027 Frontier AI Lab props

Latest stories