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Prediction markets for OpenAI Operator

Top OSWorld score in 2025?

Feb 28, 6:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1020457

Will the GitHub Copilot Litigation Succeed?

Dec 8, 2:52 AMDec 7, 5:00 AM

10.08%chance

12410434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4399

1460

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

17.63%chance

496222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4593

1443

Computer-use AI agent gets scammed / falls victim to a phishing attack, in 2025?

Jan 23, 6:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.16%chance

333791

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2010

498

Will Figure AI be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

May 18, 6:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69%chance

213692

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1492

670

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.31%chance

213007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1720

738

Will I find practical use for agents like OpenAI's Operator in 2025?

Apr 10, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55%chance

252690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

Will Microsoft successfully build a nuclear power plant before OpenAI claims to have AGI?

Jan 9, 5:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.5%chance

522073

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

865

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Will either OpenAI or Anthropic move their main operations away from the US by EOY 2029?

Nov 17, 5:44 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

12.38%chance

5466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

266

38

Will OpenAI release a high-quality AI generated movie by the end of 2028?

Nov 19, 1:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20%chance

13377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

954

When will OpenAI’s Operator be available to Plus users?

Feb 1, 3:33 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6179

OptionProbability

May 2025

Other

April 2025

March 2025

June 2025

July 2025

August 2025

September 2025

October 2025

November 2025

December 2025

21

18

8

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

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