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Prediction markets for OpenAI Podcast

Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?

Jan 3, 12:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3%chance

21247440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5689

176

Will OpenAI 'Go Out of Business'...

Nov 4, 2:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

284476

OptionProbability

Dec 31st 2028 or earlier?

June 31st 2028 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2027 or earlier?

June 31st 2027 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2026 or earlier?

June 31st 2026 or earlier?

Dec 31st 2025 or earlier?

29

20

13

9

7

3

1

Will Superalignment succeed, according to a majority of Eliezer, Nate, Paul, John, David.

Oct 28, 5:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.57%chance

71249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

399

44

OpenAI proven to have killed/imprisoned Julia Galef XOR Manifold Markets mentioned in BBC News by 2026?

Oct 11, 1:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.82%chance

8608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

47

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