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Prediction markets for Opening Ceremony

What will occur during the reign of King Charles III? 🤴🇬🇧👑

Mar 19, 2:45 AMDec 26, 7:59 AM

747166

OptionProbability

The death of Jimmy Carter

The Paris Olympics closing ceremony

The release of the iPhone 16

Both the 2024 US & UK General Elections

Bitcoin reaches $100k

2025 [resolves on Jan 1st]

Elon Musk has another child

The war in Ukraine comes to an end

GTA 6 release

A Category 5 hurricane hits the US

The launch of GPT-5

The death of Joe Biden

Weak AGI achieved, as defined by the resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

Peak Oil Demand

The Enhanced Games opening ceremony

Man’s return to the moon

EV sales in the USA overtake ICE

Will Smith attends the Oscars

A "superintelligent oracle" achieved, as defined by the resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

AGI is achieved as judged by Manifold

Bitcoin falls to $30k

Female US President

Donald Trump goes to jail

Prince William and Kate divorce

100

100

100

100

100

99

99

91

87

84

82

82

58

52

46

43

42

40

34

25

20

17

7

6

Will the 2028 Summer Olympics be cancelled or moved out of LA?

Jun 9, 9:59 PMJul 20, 12:00 AM

9%chance

133978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3180

314

Will Trump threaten to move the 2028 Olympics out of LA?

Jun 9, 6:18 PMJul 14, 10:59 PM

43.42%chance

15911

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

What will be the status of the Los Angeles Metro D (Purple) Line Extension by the 2028 Summer Olympics?

Dec 31, 4:24 AMJul 15, 6:59 AM

3869

OptionProbability

Section 3 open

Section 2 open

Section 1 open

No sections fully open

46

32

14

9

Which world leaders will attend the Grand Egyptian Museum opening on July 3, 2025?

May 28, 8:19 PMJul 2, 10:00 PM

4371

OptionProbability

President Emmanuel Macron

President Alberto Fernández

President Joko Widodo

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern

Prime Minister Scott Morrison

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

President Cyril Ramaphosa

Chancellor Friedrich Merz

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador

President Moon Jae-in

President Jair Bolsonaro

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida

President Xi Jinping

Prime Minister Narendra Modi

President Vladimir Putin

34

33

31

31

28

27

26

24

24

24

23

22

20

13

13

10

🥇 2028 Olympics: Will the President of the United States attend the Opening Ceremony?

Jan 31, 5:58 PMFeb 17, 6:59 AM

85.58%chance

7306

OptionVotes

NO

YES

313

59

Will Sanremo 2026 be broadcast by RAI?

Mar 8, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 12:00 AM

87.08%chance

6217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

260

39

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