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OpenRouter News

    Prediction markets for OpenRouter

    Taalas high speed inference chip (props)

    Mar 13, 1:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    17750

    OptionProbability

    Second model release by 2027-01-01

    Model with ≥30B parameters by 2027-01-01

    Partnership with AWS, Google Cloud, or Azure by 2028-01-01

    Model API price <10% of OpenRouter by 2028-01-01

    Three distinct models by 2027-07-01

    Chip released ≤90 days after a model release by 2028-01-01

    Model with ≥120B parameters by 2027-07-01

    At least 2 competitors launch model-specific inference ASICs by 2028-01-01

    ASIC inference hardware market ≥$50B annually by 2030-01-01

    ≥10k tokens/sec on ≥120B model by 2027-07-01

    Ten distinct models by 2028-01-01

    Model with ≥390B parameters by 2028-01-01

    Any Taalas chip available for direct consumer purchase by 2028-01-01

    Any consumer hardware running ≥10B model at ≥1000 tok/s by 2028-01-01

    Model API price <1% of OpenRouter by 2028-01-01

    ≥10k tokens/sec on ≥390B model by 2028-01-01

    ≥5 distinct models priced <10% of OpenRouter by 2028-01-01

    Taalas annual revenue ≥$1B by 2029-01-01

    77

    53

    50

    47

    46

    45

    37

    32

    28

    24

    24

    24

    24

    21

    19

    17

    17

    11

    Is Pony Alpha a new GLM model?

    Feb 8, 5:45 AMJan 1, 5:44 AM
    98.42%chance
    5672

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    768

    70

    OptionProbability

    2028

    2025

    2027

    2026

    2029

    2030

    2031

    2032

    2033

    Will not happen in any of the given years.

    2024

    17

    16

    16

    14

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    2

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    137

    73

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