OptionProbability
Relase a model that places in the top 5 on the OpenRouter monthly rankings
Release the weights of Grok 2 (not mini)
Build more datacenters
Significantly improve X feed algorithm
Publicly advocate for AI safety
Release model that is praised for it's ability to predict future
Add prediction markets into X
Merge/be acquired/acquire/found another Elon's company
100
90
76
37
14
9
5
xAI
Anthropic
OpenAI
Google/DeepMind
Moonshot AI
Other
DeepSeek
Alibaba
Cloaked model not revealed before resolution date
Meta
Mistral
4
3
2
1
Google
oak.ai
99
0
Google DeepMind
82
2028
2025
2027
2026
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Will not happen in any of the given years.
2024
17
16
6
OptionVotes
YES
NO
137
73