OptionProbability
Second model release by 2027-01-01
Model with ≥30B parameters by 2027-01-01
Partnership with AWS, Google Cloud, or Azure by 2028-01-01
Model API price <10% of OpenRouter by 2028-01-01
Three distinct models by 2027-07-01
Chip released ≤90 days after a model release by 2028-01-01
Model with ≥120B parameters by 2027-07-01
At least 2 competitors launch model-specific inference ASICs by 2028-01-01
ASIC inference hardware market ≥$50B annually by 2030-01-01
≥10k tokens/sec on ≥120B model by 2027-07-01
Ten distinct models by 2028-01-01
Model with ≥390B parameters by 2028-01-01
Any Taalas chip available for direct consumer purchase by 2028-01-01
Any consumer hardware running ≥10B model at ≥1000 tok/s by 2028-01-01
Model API price <1% of OpenRouter by 2028-01-01
≥10k tokens/sec on ≥390B model by 2028-01-01
≥5 distinct models priced <10% of OpenRouter by 2028-01-01
Taalas annual revenue ≥$1B by 2029-01-01
77
53
50
47
46
45
37
32
28
24
21
19
17
11
OptionVotes
NO
YES
768
70
2028
2025
2027
2026
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Will not happen in any of the given years.
2024
16
14
6
2
137
73