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Prediction markets for OpenSource

Will Anthropic release a (competetive) opensource LLM in the next 3 years?

Aug 5, 5:44 PMAug 5, 5:44 PM

29.88%chance

151666

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1532

653

Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?

Feb 19, 9:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.84%chance

11975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1430

699

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