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OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
World capital other than London appears on screen
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond drinks a martini
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Death of a Bond love interest
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Nazis (neo- counts)
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Orgy
Canada is shown on screen
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A hamburger appears on screen
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
Bond goes to space
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Bond plays Russian roulette
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
Pirates
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
The fourth wall is broken
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Citizen Kane
Schindler's List
The Godfather
Casablanca
Raging Bull
Singin in the Rain
Vertigo
The Shawshank Redemption
Gone with the Wind
The Wizard of Oz
City Lights
The Sound of Music
West Side Story
Lawrence of Arabia
Bridge on the River Kwai
Treasure of the Sierra Madre
King Kong (original)
Bonnie and Clyde
Midnight Cowboy
The Philadelphia Story
It Happened One Night
The Graduate
To Kill a Mockingbird
All About Eve
The Maltese Falcon
One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest
Dr Strangelove
Jaws
Star Wars
Psycho
2001 A Space Odyssey
Sunset Boulevard
The General
On The Waterfront
It's a Wonderful Life
Some Like it Hot
The Grapes of Wrath
ET the Extra Terrestrial
Mr Smith Goes to Washington
Double Indemnity
Apocalypse Now
Godfather Part II
Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (original animated)
Annie Hall
A Streetcar Named Desire
Rear Window
Taxi Driver
The Deer Hunter
M*A*S*H*
North by Northwest
Rocky
The Gold Rush
Sullivan's Travels
Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring
Chinatown
High Noon
Intolerance
Nashville
Shane
Duck Soup
Network
The African Queen
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf
Unforgiven
The Searchers
Saving Private Ryan
A Clockwork Orange
Cabaret
Tootsie
Do The Right Thing
American Graffiti
Pulp Fiction
12 Angry Men
Platoon
Silence of the Lambs
Titanic
The Sixth Sense
Goodfellas
Toy Story
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
In the Heat of the Night
Modern Times
The Wild Bunch
Spartacus
A Night at the Opera
Swing Time
Sophie's Choice
The Last Picture Show
The Best Years of our Lives
All the President's Men
Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans
Easy Rider
Bringing Up Baby
Yankee Doodle Dandy
The Apartment
Forrest Gump
Blade Runner
Ben-Hur
The French Connection
97
97
96
96
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96
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56
47
OptionProbability
Alphabet/Google (if they undo order to sell Chrome)
Other
Dedicated Nonprofit formed to manage
World Wide Web Consortium
New Co (Ran by ex-Google exec)
Microsoft
Oracle
Meta (fka Facebook)
OpenAI
IBM
Apple
Amazon
Mozilla
Opera
Salesforce
Steam/Valve
Epic
-ignore-
76
8
7
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
High Noon
The Gold Rush
Sophie's Choice
Goodfellas
The French Connection
Pulp Fiction
The Last Picture Show
Do The Right Thing
Blade Runner
Yankee Doodle Dandy
Toy Story
Ben-Hur
The General
On The Waterfront
It's a Wonderful Life
Chinatown
The Grapes of Wrath
ET the Extra Terrestrial
To Kill a Mockingbird
Mr Smith Goes to Washington
Double Indemnity
The Maltese Falcon
Godfather Part II
One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest
Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (original animated)
Annie Hall
Bridge on the River Kwai
The Best Years of our Lives
Treasure of the Sierra Madre
The Sound of Music
King Kong (original)
Bonnie and Clyde
Midnight Cowboy
The Philadelphia Story
Shane
It Happened One Night
A Streetcar Named Desier
Rear Window
Intolerance
Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring
West Side Story
Taxi Driver
The Deer Hunter
M*A*S*H*
North by Northwest
Jaws
Rocky
Nashville
Duck Soup
Sullivan's Travels
American Graffiti
Cabaret
Network
The African Queen
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf
Unforgiven
Tootsie
A Clockwork Orange
Saving Private Ryan
The Shawshank Redemption
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
Silence of the Lambs
In the Heat of the Night
Forrest Gump
All the President's Men
Modern Times
The Wild Bunch
The Apartment
Spartacus
Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans
Titanic
Easy Rider
A Night at the Opera
Platoon
12 Angry Men
Bringing Up Baby
The Sixth Sense
Swing Tie
Raging Bull
Singin in the Rain
Vertigo
City Lights
The Searchers
Psycho
2001 A Space Odyssey
Sunset Boulevard
The Graduate
Dr Strangelove
Some Like it Hot
Schindler's List
The Wizard of Oz
Apocalypse Now
Star Wars
All About Eve
Lawrence of Arabia
Gone with the Wind
Casablanca
The Godfather
Citizen Kane
66
62
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
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44
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38
34
34
34
33
32
28
27
25
19
16
OptionProbability
2027
2026
2028
2029
2030, later, or never
2025
47
25
10
9
7
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
236
126
OptionVotes
NO
YES
354
264