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Prediction markets for Operate App

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

86.58%chance

275033

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2328

593

Will Anthropic deploy ads on Claude before 2030?

Feb 4, 3:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.6%chance

324161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2292

1774

Will there be a new AI Startup primarily focused on using AI models for computer control before the end of March?

Mar 4, 2:01 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

39.68%chance

141178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

741

Waymo available at Rio Rancho City Hall End of 2028

Dec 12, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.14%chance

5527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1420

704

Which Company will be the first to sell 100.000 humanoid robots capable of household tasks?

Jan 6, 5:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17297

OptionProbability

Other

Tesla

X1

Figure

Unitree

UBTech

XPeng Robotics

Xiaomi

Mentee

Open AI

Galbot

Boston Dynamics

Samsung

Amazon

Agility Robotics/Agile Robots

LG

Honda

22

13

12

12

11

9

6

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

When will a Tesla Robovan offer its first public, autonomous ride?

Jan 29, 3:21 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

2230

OptionProbability

2030

Never

2027

2028

2029

2026

50

50

42

42

42

23

Will desktop Anki and/or AnkiDroid have paid features by Jan 1, 2027?

Feb 3, 11:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.75%chance

7202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

88

Will Baidu driverless cars be available to ride in London in 2026?

Dec 22, 6:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.53%chance

4202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

Will desktop Anki and/or AnkiDroid have paid features by Jan 1, 2028?

Feb 3, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.73%chance

9178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

Now Google buys Dave & Buster’s in 2036

Feb 10, 3:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.23%chance

2160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Prediction markets legalized in India by 2035?

Dec 22, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.62%chance

5109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

Mar 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

570

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

66

60

46

44

16

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