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Prediction markets for Operate App

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

86.58%chance

275033

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2328

593

When will a regular person be able to use AI to answer phone calls for them?

Mar 20, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

423600

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2026

Before 2025

Before 2024-07-01

Before 2024-10-01

87

80

79

59

56

0

0

0

Trump's first cabinet member fired, failed, or resigned Pete Hegseth?

Apr 21, 8:52 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

42.45%chance

382737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

TikTok sale announced before 2026?

Jul 9, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.97%chance

262280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will Grindr crash near Anaheim CA when the "Maga Invasion" and "Mini Gay Days" happen at Disneyland, February 28, 2026?

Dec 1, 1:38 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

29.28%chance

11927

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1554

643

Will DeepSeek remain available on US iOS App Store until January 1, 2026? (no ban or removal)

Jan 27, 2:10 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

90.19%chance

35855

OptionVotes

NO

YES

303

33

MCRE Resources (Perak) receives approval to resume operations in 2025?

Nov 21, 4:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.61%chance

4613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

949

Will BlueSky have at least 3 million active users in the last 7 days by the end of 2025?

Sep 29, 11:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

8273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

73

Which Company will be the first to sell 100.000 humanoid robots capable of household tasks?

Jan 6, 5:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16267

OptionProbability

X1

Other

Tesla

Unitree

Figure

UBTech

XPeng Robotics

Mentee

Open AI

Xiaomi

Galbot

Samsung

Amazon

Boston Dynamics

LG

Honda

Agility Robotics

21

16

13

12

12

9

5

3

2

2

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

At the end of 2030 which company will be worth more Coinbase (COIN) or Robinhood (Hood)?

Jun 11, 9:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6130

OptionProbability

Robinhood (HOOD)

Coinbase (COIN)

56

44

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

Mar 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

570

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

66

60

46

44

16

Will the first AI to achieve 90% accuracy at interview APPS problems primarily use text?

Oct 2, 2:59 PMOct 10, 6:59 AM

82.86%chance

266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

43

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