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Prediction markets for Operate App

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.01%chance

285333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1356

824

Will Anthropic deploy ads on Claude before 2030?

Feb 4, 3:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.31%chance

395187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2484

1666

When will a regular person be able to use AI to answer phone calls for them?

Mar 20, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

423600

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

Before 2024-07-01

Before 2024-10-01

87

80

79

59

0

0

0

0

Will Robinhood still be offering prediction markets in 2027

Jun 13, 1:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.73%chance

93483

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4241

236

Will Baidu driverless cars be available to ride in London in 2026?

Dec 22, 6:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.28%chance

131206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1482

675

Will Tesla's Cybercab be carrying public riders in at least 3 US metro areas by December 31, 2026?

Aug 25, 1:47 AMJan 12, 11:59 PM

96.03%chance

14678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

292

4

When will a Tesla Robovan offer its first public, autonomous ride?

Jan 29, 3:21 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

4657

OptionProbability

2030

2028

2029

Never

2027

2026

50

42

42

37

30

7

Waymo available at Rio Rancho City Hall End of 2028

Dec 12, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.14%chance

5527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1420

704

Will an ungated, fully driverless robotaxi service be available to the public in São Paulo before July 1, 2028?

Jul 15, 2:17 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

29.42%chance

4475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

914

When will a cyberattack cause a major U.S. bank or brokerage to lose its records of customer assets?

Aug 11, 1:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7159

OptionProbability

Before 2033

Before 2032

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2031

Before 2028

Before 2027

58

57

56

55

55

50

47

Prediction markets legalized in India by 2035?

Dec 22, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.99%chance

7157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

Mar 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

570

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

66

60

46

44

16

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