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Prediction markets for Operate App

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

86.58%chance

275033

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2328

593

When will a regular person be able to use AI to answer phone calls for them?

Mar 20, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

423590

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2026

Before 2025

Before 2024-07-01

Before 2024-10-01

87

80

79

65

56

0

0

0

Trump's first cabinet member fired, failed, or resigned Pete Hegseth?

Apr 21, 8:52 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

41.06%chance

342484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will DeepSeek remain available on US iOS App Store until January 1, 2026? (no ban or removal)

Jan 27, 2:10 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

79.91%chance

33738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

50

TikTok sale announced before 2026?

Jul 9, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.45%chance

10723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

At the end of 2030 which company will be worth more Coinbase (COIN) or Robinhood (Hood)?

Jun 11, 9:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6130

OptionProbability

Robinhood (HOOD)

Coinbase (COIN)

56

44

Wich Company will be the first to sell 100.000 humanoid robots capable of houshold tasks.

Jan 6, 5:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10109

OptionProbability

Other

Figure

Open AI

XPeng Robotics

Tesla

Unitree

Mentee

Galbot

X1

Boston Dynamics

Samsung

LG

Honda

Xiaomi

Amazon

Agility Robotics

25

18

14

11

7

6

5

4

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

Mar 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

570

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

66

60

46

44

16

Will the first AI to achieve 90% accuracy at interview APPS problems primarily use text?

Oct 2, 2:59 PMOct 10, 6:59 AM

82.86%chance

266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

43

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Apr 23, 9:38 PM

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