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Prediction markets for Operate App

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Aug 3, 4:44 PMDec 30, 4:14 PM

6154414

OptionProbability

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

Pat Scott @Stralor

@vi

@retr0id

@8my41

@Quroe

@Bandors

@Cy

@Eternal

@astroblob

@zhengkyl

@AlirezaAfshan

@Celene

@AtharvPatil

50

32

27

27

26

25

21

15

15

14

14

12

11

9

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.01%chance

285333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1356

824

Will Anthropic deploy ads on Claude before 2030?

Feb 4, 3:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.31%chance

395187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2484

1666

Will Robinhood still be offering prediction markets in 2027

Jun 13, 1:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.94%chance

72109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2991

334

Will Baidu driverless cars be available to ride in London in 2026?

Dec 22, 6:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.21%chance

121109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1327

753

When will a Tesla Robovan offer its first public, autonomous ride?

Jan 29, 3:21 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

4657

OptionProbability

2030

2028

2029

Never

2027

2026

50

42

42

37

30

7

Waymo available at Rio Rancho City Hall End of 2028

Dec 12, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.14%chance

5527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1420

704

Will an ungated, fully driverless robotaxi service be available to the public in São Paulo before July 1, 2028?

Jul 15, 2:17 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

29.42%chance

4475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

914

Will desktop Anki and/or AnkiDroid have paid features by Jan 1, 2028?

Feb 3, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.73%chance

9178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

Prediction markets legalized in India by 2035?

Dec 22, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.99%chance

7157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

At the end of 2030 which company will be worth more Coinbase (COIN) or Robinhood (Hood)?

Jun 11, 9:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6130

OptionProbability

Robinhood (HOOD)

Coinbase (COIN)

56

44

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

Mar 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

570

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

66

60

46

44

16

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