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Prediction markets for Operate App

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

86.58%chance

275033

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2328

593

When will a regular person be able to use AI to answer phone calls for them?

Mar 20, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

423600

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

Before 2024-07-01

Before 2024-10-01

87

80

79

59

0

0

0

0

Will Grindr crash near Anaheim CA when the "Maga Invasion" and "Mini Gay Days" happen at Disneyland, February 28, 2026?

Dec 1, 1:38 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

16.6%chance

203094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2244

447

Trump's first cabinet member fired, failed, or resigned Pete Hegseth?

Apr 21, 8:52 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

10.06%chance

393051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

299

33

Will Anthropic deploy ads on Claude before 2030?

Feb 4, 3:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.85%chance

202222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3118

1396

Waymo available at Rio Rancho City Hall End of 2028

Dec 12, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.39%chance

4427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

756

When will a Tesla Robovan offer its first public, autonomous ride?

Jan 29, 3:21 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

2230

OptionProbability

2030

Never

2027

2028

2029

2026

50

50

42

42

42

23

Will desktop Anki and/or AnkiDroid have paid features by Jan 1, 2027?

Feb 3, 11:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65%chance

7162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

73

At the end of 2030 which company will be worth more Coinbase (COIN) or Robinhood (Hood)?

Jun 11, 9:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6130

OptionProbability

Robinhood (HOOD)

Coinbase (COIN)

56

44

Will Baidu driverless cars be available to ride in London in 2026?

Dec 22, 6:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.98%chance

3102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

961

Prediction markets legalized in India by 2035?

Dec 22, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.19%chance

599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

Mar 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

570

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

66

60

46

44

16

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