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Prediction markets for Operate App

Will Anthropic deploy ads on Claude before 2030?

Feb 4, 3:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.5%chance

405357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2191

1837

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.01%chance

285333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1356

824

Will Robinhood still be offering prediction markets in 2027

Jun 13, 1:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.2%chance

93693

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4031

248

When will a regular person be able to use AI to answer phone calls for them?

Mar 20, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

433605

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

Before 2024-07-01

Before 2024-10-01

87

80

79

55

0

0

0

0

Will Baidu driverless cars be available to ride in London in 2026?

Dec 22, 6:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.15%chance

152322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2570

389

Will Tesla's Cybercab be carrying public riders in at least 3 US metro areas by December 31, 2026?

Aug 25, 1:47 AMJan 12, 11:59 PM

70.32%chance

14907

OptionVotes

NO

YES

163

23

When will a Tesla Robovan offer its first public, autonomous ride?

Jan 29, 3:21 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

4657

OptionProbability

2030

2028

2029

Never

2027

2026

50

42

42

37

30

7

Waymo available at Rio Rancho City Hall End of 2028

Dec 12, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.14%chance

5527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1420

704

Will an ungated, fully driverless robotaxi service be available to the public in São Paulo before July 1, 2028?

Jul 15, 2:17 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

30.63%chance

4519

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

933

When will a cyberattack cause a major U.S. bank or brokerage to lose its records of customer assets?

Aug 11, 1:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9342

OptionProbability

Before 2033

Before 2032

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2031

Before 2028

Before 2027

58

57

56

55

55

47

18

Prediction markets legalized in India by 2035?

Dec 22, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.99%chance

7157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

Mar 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

570

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

66

60

46

44

16

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