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Prediction markets for operation

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

143189174

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2025

2028

2029

2030

Other

2024

91

3

1

1

1

1

1

0

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50.18%chance

223117871

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13138

3050

Will Platreef Shaft #3 have achieved operational ore hoisting by

Apr 7, 1:26 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

78.99%chance

612379

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19913

4162

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5.22%chance

2511293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11988

1114

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.18%chance

8611268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1816

965

Will a space hotel be operational before 2035?

Nov 7, 8:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.07%chance

9510712

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2222

1191

Will MNX still be operating at EOY 2026?

Feb 18, 8:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.11%chance

5210569

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3639

46

Will China launch a military operation against Taiwan in 2026?

Feb 3, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.36%chance

509821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3113

321

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30.73%chance

764207

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1281

1116

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.23%chance

304131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1311

763

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

Jun 22, 3:16 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

52.83%chance

181437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1093

868

Will Joby Aviation start operating any aircraft commercially before the end of 2026?

Aug 13, 9:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

41.62%chance

2190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1684

1344

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