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Prediction markets for operation

By when will a second Starship / Super Heavy launch tower be operational?

Jun 10, 1:50 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

48227565

OptionProbability

Flight 15

Flight 12

2026-04-01

2024-09-01

2025-01-01

2025-07-01

Flight 7

2025-03-01

Flight 10

2026-01-01

Flight 11

99

98

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

140174415

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

2024

2025

71

14

4

3

3

3

1

1

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.28%chance

215110789

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13048

3140

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.18%chance

8611268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1816

965

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5.26%chance

2411233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11928

1118

Will a space hotel be operational before 2035?

Nov 7, 8:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.07%chance

9510712

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2222

1191

Will China launch a military operation against Taiwan in 2026?

Feb 3, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.79%chance

479194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3035

329

Will MNX still be operating at EOY 2026?

Feb 18, 8:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90%chance

458422

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2856

100

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30.73%chance

764207

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1281

1116

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.45%chance

274056

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1236

809

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

Jun 22, 3:16 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

52.83%chance

181437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1093

868

When will Queenslink be operational?

Nov 6, 5:00 AMJan 2, 4:46 AM

00

OptionProbability

2028-2031

2032-2035

2036-2039

2039-2042

Later than 2042 or never

20

20

20

20

20

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