OptionVotes
YES
NO
2327
662
2641
379
1235
810
1098
911
OptionProbability
In 2025: [US soldiers deployed to Iran] or [US military operation in Mexico]
In 2028: [Newsom wins US presidential election] or [Ocasio-Cortez wins US presidential election]
By end of 2026: [Macron ceases to be president of France] or [Xi Jinping ceases to be leader of China]
[Mamdani named Time’s 2025 Person of the Year] or [Ocasio-Cortez wins 2028 US presidential election]
In 2025: [China launches full-scale invasion of Taiwan] or [war declared between India and Pakistan]
In 2025: [Mamdani named Time’s Person of the Year] or [Kirk named Time’s Person of the Year]
In 2025: [Altman named Time’s Person of the Year] or [Huang named Time’s Person of the Year]
22
19
6
4
3
142
70
71
69
122
82
