OptionVotes
YES
NO
2875
598
OptionProbability
3-3.5 months
3.5-4 months
<3 months
4-4.5 months
4.5-5 months
5-5.5 months
>7 months
5.5-6 months
6-6.5 months
6.5-7 months
18
17
8
6
5
4
3
1098
911
In 2025: [Altman named Time’s Person of the Year] or [Huang named Time’s Person of the Year]
In 2028: [Newsom wins US presidential election] or [Ocasio-Cortez wins US presidential election]
By end of 2026: [Macron ceases to be president of France] or [Xi Jinping ceases to be leader of China]
[Mamdani named Time’s 2025 Person of the Year] or [Ocasio-Cortez wins 2028 US presidential election]
In 2025: [China launches full-scale invasion of Taiwan] or [war declared between India and Pakistan]
In 2025: [Mamdani named Time’s Person of the Year] or [Kirk named Time’s Person of the Year]
In 2025: [US soldiers deployed to Iran] or [US military operation in Mexico]
24
22
19
0
462
149
67
354
113
71
69
122
82
110
91