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Prediction markets for Operation Level Up

Will Tesla launch level 4 robotaxis this summer?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

15.24%chance

20343088

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1920

725

Will the NSF budget for FY 2026 be below $6 billion?

Feb 21, 8:13 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

40.27%chance

1517376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1754

546

Will Twitter claim to be profitable before 2027?

Jun 17, 5:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62.99%chance

696356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1304

767

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

26.21%chance

983383

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1883

1419

The first Anthropic-trained AI system to qualify as ASL-3 qualifies because of misuse risks rather than autonomy risks

Oct 3, 2:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

89.7%chance

212044

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1993

798

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.55%chance

261714

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

926

Will anything be done about Tencent or Vanguard?

Mar 11, 4:43 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

15.76%chance

14868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1620

820

Vote rigging scandal in UK, CA, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, DK, Sweden, Finland, or Ireland before 2027?

Dec 1, 9:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42.25%chance

21731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

941

Will Guyana suffer from the oil curse by 2035?

Jun 19, 11:54 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

30%chance

16518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

826

Will any Amazon Web Services data center be nationalized by any country by 2030?

Mar 5, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.22%chance

17239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

991

Will a Level 4 autonomous vehicle service be operating publicly in at least five major cities globally by EOY 2025?

Oct 29, 8:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.63%chance

6155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

198

51

Will the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe have cabinet level or above meeting before end year 2026?

Feb 7, 8:25 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

52.49%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

190

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