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Prediction markets for Operation Level Up

Will the NSF budget for FY 2026 be below $6 billion?

Feb 21, 8:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.36%chance

1817866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1900

459

Will Extropic be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

May 18, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8%chance

6016771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3391

295

Will Twitter claim to be profitable before 2027?

Jun 17, 5:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62.99%chance

696356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1304

767

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

26.63%chance

1003598

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1892

1395

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.55%chance

261714

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

926

Will Nestlé publicly apologize for its role in past human rights abuses by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.93%chance

7345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

832

Will any Amazon Web Services data center be nationalized by any country by 2030?

Mar 5, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.46%chance

17245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

995

Will a Level 4 autonomous vehicle service be operating publicly in at least five major cities globally by EOY 2025?

Oct 29, 8:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

85.99%chance

7205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

248

40

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

49.1%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

1035

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Grasberg block cave restarts by mid-2026?

Nov 19, 3:22 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

47.04%chance

261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1061

943

Will the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe have cabinet level or above meeting before end year 2026?

Feb 7, 8:25 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

52.49%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

190

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