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Prediction markets for Operation Level Up

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1918907

OptionProbability

170-175

165-170

175-180

160-165

180-185

≥185

155-160

<155

23

21

18

13

9

9

4

2

Will Twitter claim to be profitable before 2027?

Jun 17, 5:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

47.92%chance

726917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

959

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

24.24%chance

1013752

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1843

1542

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.23%chance

281788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

980

Alcoa's aluminum segment 2026 production exceeds 2.3 Mt (2,300 kt)

Jan 12, 7:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.24%chance

9400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

730

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

1027

Impala Platinum Mimosa PGM 6E Production 2027

Jan 30, 7:51 PMMar 1, 12:00 AM

52.6%chance

3170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

949

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Grasberg block cave restarts by mid-2026?

Nov 19, 3:22 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

47.59%chance

273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1049

953

Northam Platinum Zondereinde PGM Concentrate Production 2027

Jan 30, 7:51 PMMar 1, 12:00 AM

47.35%chance

265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

948

Impala Platinum Rustenburg PGM 6E Production 2027

Jan 30, 7:51 PMMar 1, 12:00 AM

47.09%chance

160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

943

Impala Platinum Bafokeng PGM 6E Production 2026 ≥ 540,000 ozt

Jan 30, 7:51 PMMar 1, 12:00 AM

47.09%chance

160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

943

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