Operator News

OpenAI Launches ChatGPT Agent for Pro, Plus, Team Users to Browse, Run Code, Create Slides, and Connect to Gmail, GitHub

16 days ago

AI Products

OpenAI Completes Rollout of Autonomous ChatGPT Agent to Paid Users

9 days ago

By when will a second Starship / Super Heavy launch tower be operational?

Jun 10, 1:50 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

37137022

OptionProbability

Flight 15

Flight 12

2026-01-01

Flight 11

Flight 10

2024-09-01

2025-01-01

2025-07-01

Flight 7

2025-03-01

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10595151

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

Other

2029

2030

2024

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.13%chance

5415827

OptionVotes

YES

13239

9320

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5.26%chance

2411233

OptionVotes

YES

11928

1118

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

8610738

OptionVotes

YES

2046

879

Will a space hotel be operational before 2035?

Nov 7, 8:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.59%chance

9310579

OptionVotes

YES

2285

1105

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.93%chance

723463

OptionVotes

YES

1251

1187

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.74%chance

221693

OptionVotes

YES

1726

368

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?

Jun 1, 12:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

31.83%chance

241468

OptionVotes

YES

1464

683

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

Jun 22, 3:16 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.37%chance

171427

OptionVotes

YES

1104

858

Will Russia and China have an operational nuclear power plant on the moon by EOY 2040?

Mar 6, 1:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.08%chance

251348

OptionVotes

YES

1211

900

Will a satisfactory sub-quadratic attention operator be found to replace quadratic self-attention layers by 2026?

Sep 24, 2:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

54.17%chance

14587

OptionVotes

YES

1481

675

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By when will a second Starship / Super Heavy launch tower be operational?

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Will a space hotel be operational before 2035?

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

Will Russia and China have an operational nuclear power plant on the moon by EOY 2040?

Will a satisfactory sub-quadratic attention operator be found to replace quadratic self-attention layers by 2026?

Latest stories

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