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Prediction markets for Optimus robot

Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?

Oct 13, 9:55 PMDec 31, 1:29 PM

4.5%chance

13042341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4641

237

Will there be a working Optimus robot on Mars by the end of 2026?

Mar 15, 5:53 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

1.42%chance

188643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8337

120

Will an Optimus robot walk on Mars before a human?

May 11, 2:15 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

71.25%chance

518376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

338

Will there be a working Optimus robot on Mars by the end of 2027?

Mar 16, 5:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6.26%chance

196513

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3869

258

When will there be a news article about people taking an Optimus robot with them on camping trips?

Jul 9, 4:38 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

105671

OptionProbability

before the end of 2030

before the end of 2028

before the end of 2029

before the end of 2027

before the end of 2026

before the end of 2024

before the end of 2025

41

35

35

27

8

0

0

Will it be possible to buy Tesla Optimus humanoid robot before 2030?

Oct 5, 8:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45%chance

394669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

580

Will Tesla Optimus robot commit a crime before year 2028? 🦾

May 23, 2:42 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

20.46%chance

253275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1418

854

How much would the Tesla Optimus Robot cost to buy if it went into production?

Dec 24, 6:44 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

361766

OptionProbability

40k - 100k

25k - 40k

>100k

<=25k

54

27

16

3

Will robots (think Tesla’s Optimus) replace retail workers by 2030?

Jan 19, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.12%chance

22979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

883

Will there be a million Optimus robots by 2035?

Aug 9, 2:54 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

62.32%chance

14829

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

78

Will Tesla sell Optimus robots to the public by the end of 2027?

Jan 22, 9:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.29%chance

10128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

43

Will Tesla officially report building 10,000+ Optimus robots in 2026 (1/5 of its own 50k-100k target)?

Aug 3, 2:07 PMFeb 17, 2:06 PM

14.14%chance

526

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

70

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