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Prediction markets for Optimus robot

Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?

Oct 13, 9:55 PMDec 31, 1:29 PM

4.5%chance

10028972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4608

217

Will an Optimus robot walk on Mars before a human?

May 11, 2:15 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

71.25%chance

518376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

338

Will there be a working Optimus robot on Mars by the end of 2027?

Mar 16, 5:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6.95%chance

185622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3660

273

When will there be a news article about people taking an Optimus robot with them on camping trips?

Jul 9, 4:38 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

85372

OptionProbability

before the end of 2030

before the end of 2028

before the end of 2029

before the end of 2027

before the end of 2026

before the end of 2024

before the end of 2025

41

35

35

33

8

0

0

Will there be a working Optimus robot on Mars by the end of 2026?

Mar 15, 5:53 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.43%chance

144953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4647

215

Will it be possible to buy Tesla Optimus humanoid robot before 2030?

Oct 5, 8:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45%chance

394669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

580

Will Tesla Optimus robot commit a crime before year 2028? 🦾

May 23, 2:42 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

16.06%chance

212342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

782

What year will the 1,000,000th Tesla Optimus Humanoid Robot be built?

Sep 26, 1:58 PMDec 31, 1:29 PM

182341

OptionProbability

2030+

2028

2024-2027

2029

85

6

5

4

How much would the Tesla Optimus Robot cost to buy if it went into production?

Dec 24, 6:44 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

361766

OptionProbability

40k - 100k

25k - 40k

>100k

<=25k

54

27

16

3

Will robots (think Tesla’s Optimus) replace retail workers by 2030?

Jan 19, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.12%chance

22979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

883

Will there be a million Optimus robots by 2035?

Aug 9, 2:54 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

46%chance

12649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

Will Optimus robot be able to change a tire on a Tesla car before 2028 ?

Mar 4, 10:03 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.39%chance

9522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

100

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