OptionProbability
Elon Musk publicly calls for pausing advanced AI development or joins a major AI safety treaty by December 31, 2026
Optimus Gen 3 revealed by June 30, 2026
Neuralink implants surpass 1,000 humans by December 31, 2026
Starship V3 reaches orbit by May 1, 2026
Grok Imagine #1 on Artificial Analysis video leaderboard end of March
xAI releases Grok 4.5 or Grok 5 by March 14, 2026
Elon Musk visits China by March 14, 2026
Elon Musk visits India by March 14, 2026
Elon Musk visits Norway by March 13, 2026
Starship V3 reaches orbit by March 13, 2026
Grok 4.2 reaches No.1 on LMArena Text leaderboard by March 13, 2026
Optimus Gen 3 available for public purchase before March 13, 2026
Cybercab available for public purchase before March 13 2026
16
14
5
1
0
At least 100 Cybercabs produced in 2026
At least 100 Semis produced in 2026
At least 10 Optimus V3 or later produced in 2026
Robotaxis in at least 12 states in 2026
Roadster unveiled before May 24th 2026
90
68
52
45
35