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Prediction markets for OPTIS

Will there be over 1000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2026?

Jun 16, 9:26 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

11.05%chance

15365461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2837

353

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?

Oct 13, 9:55 PMDec 31, 1:29 PM

16.41%chance

7112016

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2257

443

Will an Optimus robot walk on Mars before a human?

May 11, 2:15 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

69.36%chance

508291

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1630

359

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Nov 18, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

64.14%chance

282011

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

654

Will Tesla Optimus robot commit a crime before year 2028? 🦾

May 23, 2:42 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

23.45%chance

201852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

900

Will Antarctica be connected to high-speed fiber optic cable by the end of 2026?

Jun 12, 6:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.58%chance

201372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1800

555

Will reading in the schools be optional by 2060?

Dec 22, 12:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.81%chance

17836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

895

Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

Feb 6, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.18%chance

24785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1114

947

Will my Agile Space Industries options be worth something?

Apr 6, 7:41 PMApr 2, 5:59 AM

63.02%chance

5540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2308

1435

Will "Optimistic Assumptions, Longterm Planning, an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 18, 3:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

34.3%chance

3187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1177

367

LWCW 2026 keynote speaker [ADD OPTIONS]

Aug 8, 9:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Eliezer Yudkowksy

Zvi Mowshowitz

Tim Urban

Joscha Bach

Scott Alexander

Duncan Sabien

Other

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

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