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Opus News

Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon [old version, bad buckets]

Feb 2, 1:06 PMAug 30, 10:59 PM

2211028

OptionProbability

Other

<4h

4h - 5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

10h - 11h

98

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?

May 19, 1:01 AMJul 19, 1:00 AM

58.95%chance

496593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1198

835

Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon

Feb 20, 7:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

295891

OptionProbability

30h - 32.5h

Other

27.5h - 30h

32.5h - 35h

25h - 27.5h

35h - 37.5h

37.5h - 40h

22.5h - 25h

15h - 17.5h

17.5h - 20h

20h - 22.5h

<15h

16

15

14

13

11

10

9

5

2

2

2

1

Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?

Jul 1, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.66%chance

6865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

541

Will Anthropic release Claude Sonnet 5 and Claude Opus 5 on the same day?

Feb 8, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.85%chance

35847

OptionVotes

YES

NO

321

31

Will Anthropic release Claude Opus 5 by August 31, 2026?

Apr 29, 9:35 AMAug 31, 10:00 PM

32%chance

21800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

59

Will "Did Claude 3 Opus align itself via gradient h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 22, 3:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

63.89%chance

7691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1397

128

Will "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 29, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.8%chance

9460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

739

Will "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 11, 4:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.62%chance

5415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

996

Will "Claude Opus 4.6 is Driven" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 7, 6:43 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.56%chance

5237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1208

970

Will "Opus 4.6 Reasoning Doesn't Verbalize Alignmen..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 11, 8:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "Insights into Claude Opus 4.5 from Pokémon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 6:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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