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Prediction markets for Opus

Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan?

Jul 20, 12:59 PMAug 9, 3:59 AM

1.06%chance

163159742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9667

103

Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?

Jul 29, 9:28 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

83.36%chance

9864079

OptionVotes

NO

YES

22379

4468

Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?

May 19, 1:01 AMSep 1, 1:00 AM

72%chance

6610642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1604

624

Opus 4 revived by EoY 2026?

Jul 5, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.48%chance

112241

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2251

444

Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?

Jul 1, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.66%chance

6865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

541

Will "Did Claude 3 Opus align itself via gradient h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 22, 3:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

72.05%chance

11782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1472

93

Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3?

Jul 1, 1:28 AMJul 1, 1:16 AM

52.64%chance

7499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

949

Will "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 29, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.8%chance

9460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

739

Will "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 11, 4:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.62%chance

5415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

996

Will "Claude Opus 4.6 is Driven" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 7, 6:43 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.56%chance

5237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1208

970

Will "Opus 4.6 Reasoning Doesn't Verbalize Alignmen..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 11, 8:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "Insights into Claude Opus 4.5 from Pokémon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 6:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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