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Prediction markets for Opus

Which model will have a higher ECI score end of November, Opus 5.5 or GPT-6 Astra?

Sep 28, 10:35 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

175462

OptionProbability

GPT 6 Astra

Opus 5.5

60

40

Opus 4 revived by EoY 2026?

Jul 5, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.79%chance

145210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4457

224

Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3?

Jul 1, 1:28 AMJul 1, 1:16 AM

14.46%chance

142663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2432

411

Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?

Jul 1, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.74%chance

7915

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1897

527

Will "Did Claude 3 Opus align itself via gradient h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 22, 3:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

75.63%chance

12848

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1511

79

An open weight model beats Opus 4.7 by EOY26

Jun 28, 2:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.44%chance

11555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

277

36

A 70B model beats Opus 4.7 on LMArena

Jun 28, 1:21 PMApr 1, 1:29 PM

6476

OptionProbability

Before Apr 2027

Before Mar 2027

Before Feb 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Dec 2026

Before Nov 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Sep 2026

Before Oct 2026

80

46

40

15

14

11

0

0

0

Will "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 29, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.8%chance

9460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

739

Will "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 11, 4:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.62%chance

5415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

996

Will "Claude Opus 4.6 is Driven" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 7, 6:43 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.56%chance

5237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1208

970

Will "Opus 4.6 Reasoning Doesn't Verbalize Alignmen..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 11, 8:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "Insights into Claude Opus 4.5 from Pokémon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 6:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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