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Prediction markets for Opus

Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?

May 19, 1:01 AMJan 1, 2:00 AM

95.67%chance

8516426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4700

213

Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon [old version, bad buckets]

Feb 2, 1:06 PMOct 30, 10:59 PM

2211028

OptionProbability

Other

<4h

4h - 5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

10h - 11h

98

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Opus 4 revived by EoY 2026?

Jul 5, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.79%chance

145210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4457

224

Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?

Jul 1, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.66%chance

6865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

541

Will "Did Claude 3 Opus align itself via gradient h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 22, 3:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

72.05%chance

11782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1472

93

Claude Opus 4.8 METR 50% time horizon

May 30, 6:15 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

9625

OptionProbability

18h - 20h

20h - 22h

16h - 18h

22h - 24h

Other

14h - 16h

<8h

8h - 10h

10h - 12h

12h - 14h

31

23

13

11

7

4

3

3

3

3

Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3?

Jul 1, 1:28 AMJul 1, 1:16 AM

48.69%chance

9624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

974

Will "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 29, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.8%chance

9460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

739

Will "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 11, 4:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.62%chance

5415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

996

Will "Claude Opus 4.6 is Driven" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 7, 6:43 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.56%chance

5237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1208

970

Will "Opus 4.6 Reasoning Doesn't Verbalize Alignmen..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 11, 8:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "Insights into Claude Opus 4.5 from Pokémon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 6:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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