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Prediction markets for Opus

Will Claude 3.5 Opus be available via API by end of 2025?

Oct 22, 9:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.01%chance

5525367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9901

101

Claude Opus 4.5's METR-50 time horizon

Nov 24, 8:26 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

6410431

OptionProbability

2h-3h

3h-4h

4h-5h

5h-6h

6h-7h

< 2h

7h-8h

>=8h

44

41

7

4

2

1

1

1

Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?

Mar 10, 12:34 PMMar 11, 3:59 AM

5.51%chance

2310079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4205

460

Claude Opus wrong to terminate conversation?

Aug 15, 7:57 PMDec 31, 8:51 PM

20.99%chance

574160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1940

515

Will Claude Opus 4.5 still be considered frontier by end of year?

Nov 26, 8:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.18%chance

353637

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3030

330

Opus 4.5's METR time horizon beats Gemini 3.0 Pro's?

Nov 24, 7:29 PMDec 31, 7:28 PM

77.68%chance

202718

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1866

536

How many parameters does the new possibly-SOTA large language model, Claude 3 Opus, have?

Mar 5, 5:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25961

OptionProbability

Between 1 trillion and 1.5 trillion

Between 500 billion and 1 trillion

Between 1.5 trillion and 2 trillion

More than 2 trillion

Between 250 and 500 billion

Less than 250 billion

44

21

21

8

5

1

Claude 3 Opus model weights publicly available by EOY 2030?

Jul 1, 9:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.67%chance

5765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1747

572

Opus 4.5's METR time horizon beats GPT-5.1's?

Nov 24, 7:26 PMJan 1, 4:15 AM

86.73%chance

12648

OptionVotes

NO

YES

256

39

Will "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 29, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.31%chance

6275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

760

METR releases Claude 4.5 Opus results before Gemini 3 results?

Nov 24, 1:55 AMDec 24, 1:55 AM

40.01%chance

9156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 11, 4:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.08%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

989

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