Orb News

When will Starship complete an orbit?

Feb 4, 11:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

181162504

OptionProbability

Before 2027-05-01

Before 2027-04-01

Before 2027-02-01

Before 2027-03-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-12-01

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-10-01

February 2024

March 2024 or earlier

April 2024 or earlier

May 2024 or earlier

June 2024 or earlier

July 2024 or earlier

August 2024 or earlier

September 2024 or earlier

October 2024 or earlier

November 2024 or earlier

December 2024 or earlier

January 2025 or earlier

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2026-02-01

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-09-16

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

74%chance

18354039

OptionVotes

YES

1996

1193

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.5%chance

5723189

OptionVotes

YES

12515

3696

Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.76%chance

5313152

OptionVotes

YES

1962

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

Apr 28, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13%chance

275029

OptionVotes

YES

2499

478

1GW of solar power in Earth orbit by EOY 2031?

Nov 8, 3:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.1%chance

334303

OptionVotes

YES

1652

1363

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

Nov 20, 12:03 AMApr 4, 11:59 AM

243255

OptionProbability

The web will not substantially improve before 2032

WeChat

Appflowy

Agregore Browser

There wont be one next web. Web browsers of the future will run many protocols, competently, which are fairly well integrated, and for which there is no obvious general purpose winner

Orca Sandbox or something derived from it

The current web will reform before a transition can occur

Ad4m

Brave Browser

Replit

Something from Epic Games

Anytype

Logseq

Horizon Worlds

Modular Web

Playbit

VRChat

Discord

Flutter

Welkin

Gopher

Fuchsia OS

The Zed editor

emacs

World App (the one with the orbs)

X.com

roblox

Will Elon Musk ever orbit or walk on the Moon?

Apr 1, 9:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.43%chance

393048

OptionVotes

YES

2397

1846

When will Worldcoin orbs become operational in Porto Velho, Brazil?

Oct 26, 6:40 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

62183

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2026

Will Jeff Bezos ever orbit or walk on the Moon?

Mar 25, 9:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.18%chance

371762

OptionVotes

YES

2571

1688

Will there be an inflatable space habitat in orbit before 2030?

Jan 27, 6:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.8%chance

501245

OptionVotes

YES

1040

950

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2051?

Aug 27, 3:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.16%chance

11259

OptionVotes

YES

1066

869

Orb News

Prediction markets for Orb

Prediction markets for Orb

Prediction markets for Orb

When will Starship complete an orbit?

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

1GW of solar power in Earth orbit by EOY 2031?

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

Will Elon Musk ever orbit or walk on the Moon?

When will Worldcoin orbs become operational in Porto Velho, Brazil?

Will Jeff Bezos ever orbit or walk on the Moon?

Will there be an inflatable space habitat in orbit before 2030?

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2051?

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