Orb News

When will Starship complete an orbit?

Feb 4, 11:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

171147638

OptionProbability

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-02-01

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-04-01

February 2024

March 2024 or earlier

April 2024 or earlier

May 2024 or earlier

June 2024 or earlier

July 2024 or earlier

August 2024 or earlier

September 2024 or earlier

October 2024 or earlier

November 2024 or earlier

December 2024 or earlier

January 2025 or earlier

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-01-01

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

74.04%chance

18153882

OptionVotes

YES

1998

1192

Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?

Mar 24, 7:01 AMJan 7, 12:59 PM

77.94%chance

7220926

OptionVotes

YES

1370

853

Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.05%chance

429710

OptionVotes

YES

1842

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

Apr 28, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.63%chance

264278

OptionVotes

YES

1660

658

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

Nov 20, 12:03 AMApr 4, 11:59 AM

243255

OptionProbability

The web will not substantially improve before 2032

WeChat

Appflowy

Agregore Browser

There wont be one next web. Web browsers of the future will run many protocols, competently, which are fairly well integrated, and for which there is no obvious general purpose winner

Orca Sandbox or something derived from it

The current web will reform before a transition can occur

Ad4m

Brave Browser

Replit

Something from Epic Games

Anytype

Logseq

Horizon Worlds

Modular Web

Playbit

VRChat

Discord

Flutter

Welkin

Gopher

Fuchsia OS

The Zed editor

emacs

World App (the one with the orbs)

X.com

roblox

Will Elon Musk ever orbit or walk on the Moon?

Apr 1, 9:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.4%chance

382841

OptionVotes

YES

2505

1816

1GW of solar power in Earth orbit by EOY 2031?

Nov 8, 3:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.67%chance

252646

OptionVotes

YES

1507

1493

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.01%chance

202129

OptionVotes

YES

5675

3743

Will Jeff Bezos ever orbit or walk on the Moon?

Mar 25, 9:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.28%chance

351612

OptionVotes

YES

2424

1756

Will there be an inflatable space habitat in orbit before 2030?

Jan 27, 6:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.8%chance

501245

OptionVotes

YES

1040

950

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2051?

Aug 27, 3:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.16%chance

10184

OptionVotes

YES

1005

991

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When will Starship complete an orbit?

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?

Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

Which project will become the next web? (ie, replacing http/html/js)

Will Elon Musk ever orbit or walk on the Moon?

1GW of solar power in Earth orbit by EOY 2031?

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Will Jeff Bezos ever orbit or walk on the Moon?

Will there be an inflatable space habitat in orbit before 2030?

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2051?

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