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Prediction markets for Orbiter

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

74%chance

18354039

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1996

1193

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.72%chance

6445633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33225

2613

Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.81%chance

5414376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2429

15

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2041?

Aug 27, 3:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.12%chance

666463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

1047

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

Apr 28, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13%chance

275029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2499

478

1GW of solar power in Earth orbit by EOY 2031?

Nov 8, 3:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.43%chance

344383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1576

1428

Will Elon Musk ever orbit or walk on the Moon?

Apr 1, 9:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.43%chance

393048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2397

1846

Will Jeff Bezos ever orbit or walk on the Moon?

Mar 25, 9:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.18%chance

371762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2571

1688

Will there be an inflatable space habitat in orbit before 2030?

Jan 27, 6:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.8%chance

501245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

950

Will a spacecraft achieve a stable orbit around a star other than the Sun prior to 2200?

Oct 7, 4:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60.47%chance

131054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1447

428

Will I ever orbit the Earth?

Mar 20, 3:00 AMMar 27, 5:59 AM

31.19%chance

23528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

879

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2051?

Aug 27, 3:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.16%chance

11259

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

869

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