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Prediction markets for Orbiter

When will Starship complete an orbit?

Feb 4, 11:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

168130583

OptionProbability

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-02-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-09-01

February 2024

March 2024 or earlier

April 2024 or earlier

May 2024 or earlier

June 2024 or earlier

July 2024 or earlier

August 2024 or earlier

September 2024 or earlier

October 2024 or earlier

November 2024 or earlier

December 2024 or earlier

January 2025 or earlier

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

84

83

72

70

62

55

28

24

16

10

5

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2026?

Apr 16, 11:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1.17%chance

13261939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5055

27

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

73.6%chance

18053773

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1970

1202

Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?

Mar 24, 7:01 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

65%chance

6411861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

880

Will Starship launch to orbit at least 7 times before the end of 2025?

Feb 8, 5:09 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.48%chance

379053

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3417

31

Will Starship launch to orbit at least 6 times before the end of 2025?

Feb 2, 1:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.01%chance

427523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2654

22

Will Starship fly to orbit more times before Artemis II, than SLS ever flies?

Oct 16, 3:48 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

87.55%chance

107350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2652

377

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

Apr 28, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

253850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1383

759

Will Elon Musk ever orbit or walk on the Moon?

Apr 1, 9:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.49%chance

382780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2295

1877

Will there be an inflatable space habitat in orbit before 2030?

Jan 27, 6:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.8%chance

501245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

950

Will Jeff Bezos ever orbit or walk on the Moon?

Mar 25, 9:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.15%chance

341112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2044

1924

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2051?

Aug 27, 3:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.16%chance

10184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

991

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