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Orbiter News

When will Starship complete an orbit?

Feb 4, 11:06 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

174148423

OptionProbability

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-04-01

February 2024

March 2024 or earlier

April 2024 or earlier

May 2024 or earlier

June 2024 or earlier

July 2024 or earlier

August 2024 or earlier

September 2024 or earlier

October 2024 or earlier

November 2024 or earlier

December 2024 or earlier

January 2025 or earlier

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2026-02-01

Before 2026-03-01

67

57

47

37

27

17

7

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

75%chance

18253982

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2063

1170

Will Starship fly to orbit more times before Artemis II, than SLS ever flies?

Oct 16, 3:48 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

4%chance

1924377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4899

204

Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?

Mar 24, 7:01 AMJan 7, 12:59 PM

76.83%chance

7322059

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1312

870

Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.82%chance

4710871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1882

49

[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.72%chance

255089

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5187

5054

SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?

Apr 28, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.72%chance

274647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2117

545

Will Elon Musk ever orbit or walk on the Moon?

Apr 1, 9:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.94%chance

392891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2555

1803

1GW of solar power in Earth orbit by EOY 2031?

Nov 8, 3:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.67%chance

252646

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1507

1493

Will Jeff Bezos ever orbit or walk on the Moon?

Mar 25, 9:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.87%chance

361712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2521

1710

Will there be an inflatable space habitat in orbit before 2030?

Jan 27, 6:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.8%chance

501245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

950

Will a human reach Venus orbit before 2051?

Aug 27, 3:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.16%chance

10184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

991

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