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Prediction markets for Order

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

18.26%chance

5522494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20673

5320

Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?

Jul 5, 3:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4418027

OptionProbability

Other US citizen

Political underling

Member of the press

Political commentator who isn't a formal member of the press

State governor

Member of congress

Political rival

State supreme court judge

Former US president

Supreme court judge

38

23

22

21

11

10

9

7

7

6

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.57%chance

5212004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8319

3970

Trump Legal Immigration Action During Second Term (What actions in bills/executive orders will be taken before 2029?)

Nov 14, 5:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65359

OptionProbability

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives an H1B visa or green card

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives a green card

15

11

Is the sibling birth order effect on homosexuality real?

Oct 4, 3:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.35%chance

453132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1324

822

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

Feb 27, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.03%chance

312454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1229

575

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

Jan 18, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.98%chance

272170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

955

Will Manifold allow sub-1% limit orders by EOY 2026?

Aug 14, 5:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.57%chance

101652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2523

396

Will USPS reject at least 100,000 mail ballots due to Trump's executive order in 2026?

Sep 1, 10:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.46%chance

101497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1972

507

Will Trump reverse Biden's order on making all federally funded research open access?

Nov 22, 7:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.63%chance

5609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1579

633

Will we be able to order our own customizable lab grown living things, by 2035?

Dec 16, 3:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 PM

60.45%chance

14436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

988

971

Will the consistency of the First Order Theory beyond Higher Order Set Theory be determined by EOY 2050?

Jun 20, 3:17 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

39.02%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

800

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