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Prediction markets for Order

Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?

Jul 5, 3:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4418027

OptionProbability

Other US citizen

Political underling

Member of the press

Political commentator who isn't a formal member of the press

State governor

Member of congress

Political rival

State supreme court judge

Former US president

Supreme court judge

38

23

22

21

11

10

9

7

7

6

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

35.78%chance

4912818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12673

8134

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.23%chance

489899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6256

4591

Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026?

Feb 16, 5:57 PMOct 31, 5:57 PM

1%chance

86637

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6202

34

Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026?

Feb 16, 5:48 PMOct 31, 5:48 PM

1%chance

106202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6202

34

Trump Legal Immigration Action During Second Term (What actions in bills/executive orders will be taken before 2029?)

Nov 14, 5:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65359

OptionProbability

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives an H1B visa or green card

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives a green card

15

11

SOAI#10: Trump issues an unconstitutional executive order to ban state AI legislation.

Oct 9, 11:09 PMJan 1, 12:08 AM

82.31%chance

353783

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2157

464

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

Feb 27, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.71%chance

302282

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1352

453

Will USPS reject at least 100,000 mail ballots due to Trump's executive order in 2026?

Sep 1, 10:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.88%chance

91472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1947

514

Will Trump reverse Biden's order on making all federally funded research open access?

Nov 22, 7:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.63%chance

5609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1579

633

Will we be able to order our own customizable lab grown living things, by 2035?

Dec 16, 3:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 PM

60.45%chance

14436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

988

971

Will the consistency of the First Order Theory beyond Higher Order Set Theory be determined by EOY 2050?

Jun 20, 3:17 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

39.02%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

800

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