OptionProbability
An attendee of the Bilderberg Conference
Will any of the specific options resolve YES before end of market?
Anyone published in Nature or Science
Anyone with over 1m Twitter followers
Anyone with over 100m YouTube views
An official holder of a Guinness world record p/p
Forbes 30 under 30 p/p
An attendee of the World Economic Forum at Davos
Someone with over 100k stackoverflow points
Head of state, any country
Former head of state, any country
US Congressman p/p
Nobel winner
Fields medal winner
Genius grant winner
Any of Fields medal, Nobel, genius grant
Emmy
Oscar
Pulitzer prize
Grammy
Tony award
Any of Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony
Hugo award
Nebula award
Turing award
Any chess GM
Any pro go player in Japan, Korea, china's pro system
Any winner of any award on Wikipedia's list of "Nobels in a field" link below
Anyone who later appears on the FBI most wanted list
Any astronaut, cosmonaut, or taikonaut, etc
Head of a fortune 500 company p/p
One of the Forbes 400 p/p
Roman Catholic pope p/p
Head of a religion w/1mm or more adherents
Any member of a dynastic order such as the Order of the Garter, see link
Any member of skull and bones
Member of the US presidents cabinet p/p
Head of one of the usgov executive departments p/p
Member of the House of Lords p/p
Presidential pardon recipients, USA
TIME person of the year
A European princess or Prince
A member of the British Nobility
A US military general or higher
A member of the MLB, NFL, NHL, or NBA hall of fame
An Olympic gold medalist
Member of the Royal Society
100
43
40
31
29
0