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Prediction markets for Orders of Magnitude

Q-Day before 2030?

Apr 1, 9:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.22%chance

8988238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

86621

36681

Waymo reaches 2 billion miles with three or fewer at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 1:10 AMJan 2, 2:08 AM

74.88%chance

145394

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1728

580

Will the pre-clinical results on the cancer drug AOH1996 be broadly confirmed by independent team(s)?

Aug 3, 12:23 PMAug 3, 9:59 PM

25.67%chance

303447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1325

806

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

World GDP grows by an order of magnitude in 10 years?

Mar 24, 3:41 PMMar 24, 3:34 PM

8.16%chance

193206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3355

298

Will numbers be unambiguous before 2045?

Dec 3, 7:33 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10.63%chance

132205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2900

345

Will any supercomputer reach 1 zettaFLOP before 2035?

Dec 11, 3:00 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

74.9%chance

242100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

967

940

Will roboticists scale up their compute game before 2027?

Aug 9, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.15%chance

81750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1571

637

Is the natural frequency of abiogenesis at least 1/1 trillion planets per billion years?

Oct 3, 1:33 AMJan 2, 2:29 AM

77.1%chance

8935

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1835

545

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1795

801

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?

Apr 2, 1:06 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

26%chance

23758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1153

907

Will the Full Self Driving revolution be bigger then the Smartphone revolution by at least one order of magnitude?

May 13, 12:30 AMDec 20, 4:59 AM

18.72%chance

11259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

48

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