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Prediction markets for Ordinals

Will the Roman Catholic Church permit the ordination of female priests by 2050?

Apr 27, 8:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.33%chance

497835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1829

1678

Meta cheated at LM Arena to pump Llama-4's score?

Apr 8, 2:23 PMApr 8, 2:15 PM

10.71%chance

226225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2888

346

Will Manifold Markets be blocked in Brazil before 2026?

Sep 20, 4:59 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

6.5%chance

82515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2899

62

Will the Mormon church give the priesthood to women before 2026?

Oct 27, 5:50 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

1%chance

81977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1592

28

Will ordinary cinemas in English-speaking countries start showing subtitles for English-language films before 2030?

Mar 9, 11:46 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

87.2%chance

8653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

473

174

Scottish Parliament: Will there be an Extraordinary General Election called before the next ordinary general election?

Apr 27, 10:13 PMMay 6, 10:59 PM

11.34%chance

6436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

499

74

Will the roman catholic church permit the ordination of trans male priests by 2030?

Jun 19, 6:27 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

11.33%chance

12388

OptionVotes

NO

YES

986

896

Is the Continuum Hypothesis true?

Aug 5, 2:06 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.59%chance

10310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

185

120

First US state to declare independence?

Jun 8, 5:05 PMDec 31, 6:05 PM

5190

OptionProbability

California

Texas

Other

Washington

Wyoming

Florida

Louisiana

Hawaii

Alaska

31

17

11

9

6

6

6

6

6

Will the LDS Church (Mormons) allow woman to perform baptism before 2075?

Jan 26, 12:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.67%chance

9166

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

125

Will the roman catholic church permit the ordination of trans male priests by 2040?

Jun 19, 6:28 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

16.71%chance

5108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

71

Will Guido Putignano win the Ordine al Merito della Repubblica Italiana (OMRI) by EOY2060?

Sep 21, 6:43 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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