Ordinary News

Morgan Wallen’s ‘I’m the Problem’ Sells 121,000 Units, Tops Billboard 200 for 12th Week; Billie Eilish #6, Taylor Swift #10

1 year ago

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.86%chance

653719860

OptionVotes

YES

5791

4783

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3%chance

26155752

OptionVotes

YES

60647

2307

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

29.94%chance

10332775

OptionVotes

YES

1351

1104

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

156353

OptionProbability

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11%chance

286231

OptionVotes

YES

1299

934

Which of these new vehicle types will Tesla produce by 2034?

Jan 6, 6:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

704710

OptionProbability

A minibus

A bus

An airplane

A flying car

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

42.64%chance

233700

OptionVotes

YES

4493

3587

Will there be an EU convention to amend the treaties during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 18, 2:57 PMJun 9, 9:59 PM

44.92%chance

71533

OptionVotes

YES

1584

1422

Will ordinary cinemas in English-speaking countries start showing subtitles for English-language films before 2030?

Mar 9, 11:46 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

87.2%chance

8653

OptionVotes

YES

473

174

Ordinary Sausage hospitalized for food poisoning by 2030?

Oct 16, 1:13 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.04%chance

9167

OptionVotes

YES

128

In 2030, what will consensus say is the primary cause of the increase in gender dysphoria over the past few decades?

Aug 19, 11:04 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13142

OptionProbability

there was no increase in gender dysphoria after all (it just became more socially acceptable to transition)

still no consensus

Other

Kids mistaking ordinary teenage identity crisis and anxiety for gender dysphoria because of how common that narrative is at the moment

Can we find evidence for states with indefinite mass(beyond ordinary unstable resonances),

Dec 31, 3:32 PMJan 1, 3:31 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

100

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Prediction markets for Ordinary

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By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Which of these new vehicle types will Tesla produce by 2034?

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Will there be an EU convention to amend the treaties during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

Will ordinary cinemas in English-speaking countries start showing subtitles for English-language films before 2030?

Ordinary Sausage hospitalized for food poisoning by 2030?

In 2030, what will consensus say is the primary cause of the increase in gender dysphoria over the past few decades?

Can we find evidence for states with indefinite mass(beyond ordinary unstable resonances),

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