Ordinary News

Morgan Wallen’s ‘I’m the Problem’ Sells 121,000 Units, Tops Billboard 200 for 12th Week; Billie Eilish #6, Taylor Swift #10

5 months ago

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.87%chance

555495774

OptionVotes

YES

3519

1108

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

8.51%chance

7431502

OptionVotes

YES

32786

3050

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

35.25%chance

9531274

OptionVotes

YES

1439

922

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

1412778

OptionVotes

YES

22391

5186

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11.93%chance

286210

OptionVotes

YES

1201

946

Will there be an EU convention to amend the treaties during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 18, 2:57 PMJun 9, 9:59 PM

44.92%chance

71533

OptionVotes

YES

1584

1422

Scottish Parliament: Will there be an Extraordinary General Election called before the next ordinary general election?

Apr 27, 10:13 PMMay 6, 10:59 PM

3.07%chance

71046

OptionVotes

YES

1093

Will ordinary cinemas in English-speaking countries start showing subtitles for English-language films before 2030?

Mar 9, 11:46 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

87.2%chance

8653

OptionVotes

YES

473

174

What will be true about The Super Mario Galaxy Movie? [Add Answers!]

Nov 10, 3:19 PMNov 11, 3:18 PM

14527

OptionProbability

Released in the United States on April 3, 2026

Yoshi's voice in the English version is >50% grunts/yells/screams/etc original to the movie

Donkey Kong physically appears and says an intelligible word

Bowser is at his ordinary size (no Mini Mushroom or giant form) for at least 35 minutes of runtime

Yoshi's voice in the English version is >50% real words

Yoshi's voice in the English version is >50% reused audio from the games

The word "delve" (or variants) is spoken

In 2030, what will consensus say is the primary cause of the increase in gender dysphoria over the past few decades?

Aug 19, 11:04 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13142

OptionProbability

there was no increase in gender dysphoria after all (it just became more socially acceptable to transition)

still no consensus

Other

Kids mistaking ordinary teenage identity crisis and anxiety for gender dysphoria because of how common that narrative is at the moment

Ordinary Sausage hospitalized for food poisoning by 2030?

Oct 16, 1:13 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35%chance

7107

OptionVotes

YES

136

Can we find evidence for states with indefinite mass(beyond ordinary unstable resonances),

Dec 31, 3:32 PMJan 1, 3:31 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

100

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By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Will there be an EU convention to amend the treaties during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

Scottish Parliament: Will there be an Extraordinary General Election called before the next ordinary general election?

Will ordinary cinemas in English-speaking countries start showing subtitles for English-language films before 2030?

What will be true about The Super Mario Galaxy Movie? [Add Answers!]

In 2030, what will consensus say is the primary cause of the increase in gender dysphoria over the past few decades?

Ordinary Sausage hospitalized for food poisoning by 2030?

Can we find evidence for states with indefinite mass(beyond ordinary unstable resonances),

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