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What organization will top the LLM leaderboards on LMArena at end of 2025? 🤖📊

Jan 6, 5:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57108962

OptionProbability

Google / DeepMind

OpenAI

xAI / Grok

Anthropic / Claude

DeepSeek

Meta / Facebook

Other

79

16

2

1

1

0

0

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Sep 5, 2:45 AMSep 12, 4:59 AM

21822675

OptionProbability

DeepMind

OpenAI

Other

Anthropic

Elon's X.AI company

The US Government (DARPA or Similar Org)

The Chinese Communist Party

DeepSeek

A single individual not listed here

Google Brain

IBM

Microsoft

32

25

16

10

6

4

3

3

1

0

0

0

Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.44%chance

839820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2695

815

Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035

Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

20.78%chance

559461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3422

3106

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

52.36%chance

22432

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10483

9539

Division of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030

Jul 13, 9:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

23.2%chance

51700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3591

1151

Will NASA's Europa Clipper discover organic compounds either in plumes or on the surface?

Oct 18, 1:06 AMOct 15, 3:59 AM

78.62%chance

181191

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1918

521

Will the public know before christmas 2032 that either Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping has received an organ transplant?

Sep 3, 8:45 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

41.49%chance

8608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

842

Will the climate change activists "Last Generation" ("Letzte Generation") be classified as a criminal organization?

Nov 25, 9:13 AMSep 9, 9:59 PM

47.68%chance

18605

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1219

648

Will Sam Altman be CEO of Open AI when Strong AGI is achieved by any organization?

May 7, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.08%chance

16235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

980

Conditional on me dying while signed up with any cryonics organization, will I be revived?

Nov 15, 6:50 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

29.86%chance

17192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

878

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.9%chance

8149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

1092

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