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Prediction markets for organization

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Sep 5, 2:45 AMSep 12, 4:59 AM

22523754

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

DeepMind

Other

The US Government (DARPA or Similar Org)

Elon's X.AI company

The Chinese Communist Party

DeepSeek

A single individual not listed here

Google Brain

IBM

Microsoft

31

24

18

13

6

3

2

2

1

0

0

0

Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.26%chance

8310037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2833

766

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

26.74%chance

59478

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16553

6041

Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035

Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

20.78%chance

559461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3422

3106

Division of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030

Jul 13, 9:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.05%chance

52982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3409

1209

Will NASA's Europa Clipper discover organic compounds either in plumes or on the surface?

Oct 18, 1:06 AMOct 15, 3:59 AM

81.74%chance

191638

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2116

473

Will the climate change activists "Last Generation" ("Letzte Generation") be classified as a criminal organization?

Nov 25, 9:13 AMSep 9, 9:59 PM

42.54%chance

21783

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

746

Will the public know before christmas 2032 that either Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping has received an organ transplant?

Sep 3, 8:45 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

41.49%chance

8608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

842

Will Sam Altman be CEO of Open AI when Strong AGI is achieved by any organization?

May 7, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.97%chance

17485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1228

821

Conditional on me dying while signed up with any cryonics organization, will I be revived?

Nov 15, 6:50 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

29.86%chance

17192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

878

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.49%chance

10163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

1095

Will "Your Model Organisms Might Be Fried" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 2, 10:06 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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