Origin News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

93%chance

8657703752

OptionVotes

YES

18636

8827

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.25%chance

183266085

OptionVotes

YES

17639

7122

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.71%chance

85130764

OptionVotes

YES

2919

859

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

70.65%chance

10883701

OptionVotes

YES

2145

618

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.92%chance

18076997

OptionVotes

YES

2292

1619

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

Dec 4, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2235068

OptionProbability

1.0-1.2

1.2-1.4

0.8-1.0

1.4-1.6

>=1.6

<0.8

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?

Apr 6, 9:52 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

7.02%chance

9812873

OptionVotes

YES

3833

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

May 19, 6:02 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

22.05%chance

518642

OptionVotes

YES

1890

258

If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?

Sep 22, 5:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

318436

OptionVotes

YES

1072

965

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

515944

OptionProbability

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

Aliens

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

Simulation Hypothesis

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

Other

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

UFOs are magic

Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory?

Jan 24, 12:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.78%chance

271066

OptionVotes

YES

1308

874

Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?

Dec 25, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

66%chance

20570

OptionVotes

YES

1069

792

Origin News

Prediction markets for Origin

Prediction markets for Origin

Prediction markets for Origin

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory?

Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?

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