Original News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

95.74%chance

9769576786

OptionVotes

YES

29365

8218

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.14%chance

86132293

OptionVotes

YES

2744

902

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

67.34%chance

12498323

OptionVotes

YES

2014

677

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.56%chance

18677553

OptionVotes

YES

2497

1461

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

33%chance

5711974

OptionVotes

YES

1490

593

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

May 19, 6:02 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

11.61%chance

539955

OptionVotes

YES

2427

154

If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?

Sep 22, 5:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

318436

OptionVotes

YES

1072

965

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

596617

OptionProbability

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Aliens

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Other

Simulation Hypothesis

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

UFOs are magic

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Jan 8, 2:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

226519

OptionProbability

Never or after 1/1/2030

1/1/2026-12/31/2026

1/1/2027-12/31/2027

1/1/2028-12/31/2028

1/1/2029-12/31/2029

Before 2026

Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory?

Jan 24, 12:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.66%chance

301568

OptionVotes

YES

1803

759

Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?

Dec 25, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.87%chance

21620

OptionVotes

YES

1044

842

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

YES

1286

778

Original News

Prediction markets for Original

Prediction markets for Original

Prediction markets for Original

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?

If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory?

Will there be a non-natural origin theory for the next pandemic?

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

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