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Top stories

Putin Honors Soviet WWII Pilots in Alaska After Trump Summit

US Foreign Policy

Putin Honors Soviet WWII Pilots in Alaska After Trump Summit

Authors

25

6 months ago

ADL CEO Greenblatt Criticizes NYC Candidate Mamdani Over Outreach, Citing 'Globalize the Intifada'; CNBC Corrects False Claims; CAIR Seeks NGO Funding Clarity

ADL CEO Greenblatt Criticizes NYC Candidate Mamdani Over Outreach, Citing 'Globalize the Intifada'; CNBC Corrects False Claims; CAIR Seeks NGO Funding Clarity

Authors

6

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Orthodox

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5%chance

918354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2482

1495

Will Ultra-Orthodox Jews be mandatorily conscripted by the IDF by the end of 2028?

Feb 29, 1:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

232852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1145

872

Jordan Peterson becomes an Eastern Orthodox Christian before 2030

Aug 15, 2:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.48%chance

122330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2430

411

Where in the multiverse is "no accident must ever help the detective"?

Apr 12, 11:52 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

111586

OptionProbability

[!] Syzygy's DE-esque take on (X)

Lintagolarion (eg planecrash/we know we once were gods)

Other

Some other decidedly non-Pathfinder setting

Fairly orthodox Paizogolarion (for some era)

Some iteration of "Pathfinder: the Video Game"

Nandwich-style Golarion (eg esurient shadow)

44

30

11

6

3

3

3

Will full communion be established between the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches by the the end of 2028?

Jul 1, 2:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.29%chance

201586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

654

15

Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?

Feb 24, 9:01 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.83%chance

19599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

274

155

Will the next leader of Russia after Putin be Russian Orthodox?

Oct 25, 7:45 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

68.68%chance

9226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

178

131

OU requires hechsher for plain coffee from regular shops by Dec 31, 2026?

Dec 3, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.88%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

998

Will the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the Orthodox Church of Ukraine exist separately until 2030?

Aug 2, 11:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 PM

80.28%chance

499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

38

Will the Russian Orthodox Church restore full communion with the Patriarchate of Constantinople until 2050?

Jul 21, 4:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

66%chance

235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

56

Will the Russian Orthodox Church stop its membership in the World Council of Churches until 2030?

Aug 30, 2:53 PMDec 31, 7:59 PM

15

OptionProbability

Yes, ROC will revoke its WCC membership

Yes, ROC will be expelled from WCC

No, ROC will still be a member church

Other

33

22

22

22

Potential questions for long bet on Robin Hanson Orthodox Jews thesis (500 mana / 100 per great question or comment)

Oct 16, 1:57 AM

00

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