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Prediction markets for Oruç Reis

Will Jordan Chiles's bronze medal be reinstated?

Aug 11, 9:50 PMAug 31, 4:59 AM

1.33%chance

7552365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8618

116

Which UFC fighters will both remain undefeated and stay on the UFC roster through 2025?

Jun 17, 2:53 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

2422451

OptionProbability

Ilia Topuria

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Movsar Evloev

Malcolm Wellmaker

Jacobe Smith

Azamat Murzakanov

Navajo Stirling

Michael Morales

Andre Lima

Aliaskhab Khizriev

Lerone Murphy

Mansur Abdul-Malik

Torrez Finney

Rafael Estevam

Mario Pinto

Nurullo Aliev

Hyun Sung Park

Farid Basharat

Khamzat Chimaev

Tallison Teixeira

Ian Machado Garry

Bo Nickal

Umar Nurmagomedov

Tatsuro Taira

Muhammad Mokaev

Sharaputdin Magomedov

Payton Talbott

Danny Barlow

Jhonata Diniz

Stewart Nicoll

Clayton Carpenter

Jean Matsumoto

Oumar Sy

Wang Cong

Raffael Cerqueira

Daniel Marcos

Tatiana Suarez

Rei Tsuruya

Mick Parkin

Hyder Amil

Diyar Nurgozhay

92

86

79

76

76

69

66

63

63

60

51

50

50

50

50

50

50

39

36

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will King Charles III of England's reign be long enough for the development of AGI?

Sep 8, 6:44 PMSep 16, 6:59 AM

10.94%chance

645108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2107

738

Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?

May 29, 11:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70.34%chance

394177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1632

414

Will Overwatch 2 reintroduce 6v6 as the main competitive mode?

Jun 28, 10:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.99%chance

133976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

How Long will King Charles reign?

May 7, 7:10 AMMay 7, 8:59 PM

16.52%chance

333367

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1629

773

Will Trump reinstate de minimus before August 29?

Aug 2, 7:37 PMAug 29, 11:59 PM

14.38%chance

172409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2440

410

Will wild polio be reintroduced in the Americas before August 25th, 2029?

Jul 8, 12:38 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM

12.37%chance

131184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1373

888

Will we get rational reinforcement learning before 2027?

May 11, 6:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

32.44%chance

121057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1446

696

Will exoskeleton hiking pants be available to purchase from REI before June 2027?

Apr 25, 5:07 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

28.73%chance

8842

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1575

635

Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) a significant component of publicly known SOTA alignment techniques by 2028

Sep 16, 9:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.13%chance

15490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1236

906

Will the 500 euro note be reissued by 2030?

Jan 12, 5:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.69%chance

25477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

880

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