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Prediction markets for OS

When will Google announce that Fuchsia OS will replace Android as the default OS on its consumer phones?

Oct 15, 12:35 PMOct 15, 12:33 PM

101043

OptionProbability

gets cancelled

before 2035

before 2034

before 2031

before 2032

before 2033

before 2030

before 2029

before 2028

before 2027

before 2026

54

47

46

45

45

45

41

36

16

6

4

When in 2026 will OS-World Verified be saturated by AI models?

Dec 22, 1:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

51041

OptionProbability

Jul-Sep 2026

Oct-Dec 2026

Apr-Jun 2026

Jan-Mar 2026

44

29

18

10

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

May 6, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20852

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2028-2029

2029-2030

2044-2045

2030-2031

2031-2032

2026-2027

2024-2025

2025-2026

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

29

23

22

15

5

4

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Microsoft release a new smartphone and mobile OS before 2028?

May 1, 1:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.76%chance

16602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

192

Will Google spin off or sell Android before ‘27 to focus on an OS run exclusively on their own devices?

May 1, 7:54 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.04%chance

6285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

363

28

When there will be OS which able to run proof-carrying programs?

Jan 16, 9:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

2132

OptionProbability

[2028-2030)

≥2030

[2026,2028)

<2026

35

35

26

3

Will M1 Macs receive the longest mainline support of any model since the switch to Mac OS X?

Oct 20, 4:33 AMNov 17, 12:59 PM

85.21%chance

270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

21

Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to the age verification system of ANY OS before 3 July 2028?

May 26, 2:28 PMJul 2, 11:59 PM

62.62%chance

459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

77

Will the Apple Watch Series 8 receive over 5 major OS updates in its lifetime? (Beyond WatchOS 13)

Oct 20, 4:25 AMMay 31, 1:59 PM

58%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

79

63

Which Desktop Computer OS do you prefer to use?

Aug 2, 11:36 PM

70

'OS' computer abbreviation usually means ?

Oct 21, 10:24 AM

300

which OS do u use on your desktop computer?

Mar 24, 10:46 AM

210

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