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Prediction markets for Oscar nominations

Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?

Feb 9, 3:48 PMDec 31, 10:01 PM

17.78%chance

9917451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1864

977

Will AI-generated content be nominated for a major award (like the Oscars or Grammys) by the end of 2025

Jul 8, 5:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.49%chance

284753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4824

423

Will Barack Obama be nominated for a Golden Globe or Oscar in the next three years [2024, 2025, and 2026]?

Dec 11, 4:19 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

18.22%chance

271656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

444

Which films will be nominated for an Oscar at the 98th Academy Awards (2026)?

Jan 24, 2:48 AMMar 15, 2:59 AM

9396

OptionProbability

Wicked: For Good

Sinners

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Marty Supreme

Late Fame

The Smashing Machine

Hamnet

The Battle of Baktan Cross

High and Low

Lilo & Stitch

The Way of The Wind

The Phoenician Scheme

The Lost Bus

Long Day's Journey Into Night

The Ballad of a Small Player

Hedda

Materialists

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey

Caught Stealing

Deliver Me From Nowhere

Frankenstein

The Last Disturbance of Madeline Hynde

Mickey 17

In The Hand of Dante

Bugonia

87

86

84

60

50

50

50

45

37

33

30

29

24

24

24

23

22

19

19

19

18

17

17

17

12

Will any movies featuring cryonics be nominated for an Oscar at the 96th, 97th, 98th, or 99th Oscars?

Jul 24, 7:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.75%chance

11232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

260

115

Will AI-generated content be nominated for a major award (like the Oscars or Grammys) by the end of 2026

Jul 8, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.93%chance

7202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

249

40

Will a Chick-fil-A streaming app original production be nominated for an Emmy or Oscar?

Aug 22, 4:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.77%chance

4190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

288

35

Will a movie or short film that is primarily pixel art be nominated for an Oscar in any category before 2032?

Dec 26, 5:18 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.06%chance

8117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

327

164

Will someone named Rigoberto or Rigobert be nominated for an Academy Award / Oscar before April 1st 2032?

Jan 17, 10:08 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM

23.43%chance

781

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

136

Midjourney is credited by name in a movie which is nominated for an Oscar before 4/2028

Apr 21, 3:47 AMApr 1, 6:59 AM

36.65%chance

573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

78

Will Focus Features win Best Picture before April 1st 2031? Currently they have the most Oscar nominations without a win

Dec 14, 4:07 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

80.11%chance

463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

41

Will the Legend of Zelda movie be nominated for an Oscar in any category?

Nov 18, 7:45 AMNov 25, 7:59 AM

36.99%chance

419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

90

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