OT News

The UK Tory party will split into 2 parties or otherwise internally fall apart before 2026

Aug 30, 12:26 PMJan 6, 11:59 PM

2.95%chance

335651

OptionVotes

YES

3444

831

Will the Wikipedia page titled "Nigger" be renamed to "The N-Word" or otherwise censored before 2030?

Dec 28, 7:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.75%chance

234192

OptionVotes

YES

4668

746

Will Adderall be legalized OTC by end of 2030?

Jan 22, 6:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.76%chance

383017

OptionVotes

YES

2720

781

Will pedophilia become a recognized sexual orientation similar to the others before 2030?

Dec 13, 12:11 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

6.95%chance

15464

OptionVotes

YES

1316

944

Will any spacecraft land or otherwise come to be on at least 3 astronomical bodies before 2040?

Feb 5, 5:02 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

46.09%chance

16448

OptionVotes

YES

1013

944

There will be one LLM/AI that is at least 10x better than all others in 2027

May 1, 12:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.69%chance

12429

OptionVotes

YES

1150

950

By 2075 there will be an OTC product that can change your sexual orientation to whatever you’d like at the time.

Oct 8, 3:57 AMJan 15, 6:59 AM

33.78%chance

1400

OptionVotes

YES

1400

714

Will intelligent physical sexbots be banned or otherwise made illegal to possess or use in the United States by 2100?

Jun 30, 5:35 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.52%chance

10232

OptionVotes

YES

240

189

Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?

Jan 14, 12:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.3%chance

15188

OptionVotes

YES

1119

950

Can EU companies charge 14% exchange rates fee for euro transactions? Resolution as soon as outcome is known. ADD yours

Dec 11, 11:22 PMMay 4, 10:11 PM

437

OptionProbability

the exchange fee will be removed for euro-euro conversions , but without refunding victims

NO, Prague is EU capital and charging exchange rates for Euro to Euro conversions isn't legal - we will learn about the fines ot court orders or other punishments

YES, it's fully legal - no consequences for ATM owners

exchange fee from Euro to Euro is gray area and companies can operate if they have good lawyers - the issue will be settled, and ATM continue operate as is

Other

Will "Put numbers on stuff, all the time, otherwise..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 17, 7:08 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17%chance

133

OptionVotes

YES

1033

821

Will "Reducing LLM deception at scale with self-oth..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 11, 9:53 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

YES

1000

OT News

Prediction markets for OT

Prediction markets for OT

Prediction markets for OT

The UK Tory party will split into 2 parties or otherwise internally fall apart before 2026

Will the Wikipedia page titled "Nigger" be renamed to "The N-Word" or otherwise censored before 2030?

Will Adderall be legalized OTC by end of 2030?

Will pedophilia become a recognized sexual orientation similar to the others before 2030?

Will any spacecraft land or otherwise come to be on at least 3 astronomical bodies before 2040?

There will be one LLM/AI that is at least 10x better than all others in 2027

By 2075 there will be an OTC product that can change your sexual orientation to whatever you’d like at the time.

Will intelligent physical sexbots be banned or otherwise made illegal to possess or use in the United States by 2100?

Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?

Can EU companies charge 14% exchange rates fee for euro transactions? Resolution as soon as outcome is known. ADD yours

Will "Put numbers on stuff, all the time, otherwise..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Reducing LLM deception at scale with self-oth..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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