OT News

Who will be in the top five picks of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Jan 20, 10:18 AMApr 24, 3:59 AM

268283

OptionProbability

Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

Arvell Reese, LB/Edge, Ohio State

David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech

Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami

Sonny Styles

Spencer Fano

Caleb Downs

Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami

Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama

Makai Lemon, WR, USC

Keldric Faulk, Edge, Auburn

Cashius Howell, Edge, Texas A&M

Akheem Mesidor, Edge, Miami

Dante Moore, QB, Oregon

Will the Wikipedia page titled "Nigger" be renamed to "The N-Word" or otherwise censored before 2030?

Dec 28, 7:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.75%chance

234192

OptionVotes

YES

4668

746

Will Adderall be legalized OTC by end of 2030?

Jan 22, 6:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.76%chance

383017

OptionVotes

YES

2720

781

Will pedophilia become a recognized sexual orientation similar to the others before 2030?

Dec 13, 12:11 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

6.95%chance

15464

OptionVotes

YES

1316

944

Will any spacecraft land or otherwise come to be on at least 3 astronomical bodies before 2040?

Feb 5, 5:02 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

46.09%chance

16448

OptionVotes

YES

1013

944

There will be one LLM/AI that is at least 10x better than all others in 2027

May 1, 12:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.69%chance

12429

OptionVotes

YES

1150

950

In what order will the position groups be picked in the 2026 NFL Draft?

Jan 5, 2:03 PMApr 25, 11:59 PM

4401

OptionProbability

EDGE

IOL

By 2075 there will be an OTC product that can change your sexual orientation to whatever you’d like at the time.

Oct 8, 3:57 AMJan 15, 6:59 AM

33.78%chance

1400

OptionVotes

YES

1400

714

Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?

Jan 14, 12:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.3%chance

15188

OptionVotes

YES

1119

950

Can EU companies charge 14% exchange rates fee for euro transactions? Resolution as soon as outcome is known. ADD yours

Dec 11, 11:22 PMMay 4, 10:11 PM

437

OptionProbability

the exchange fee will be removed for euro-euro conversions , but without refunding victims

NO, Prague is EU capital and charging exchange rates for Euro to Euro conversions isn't legal - we will learn about the fines ot court orders or other punishments

YES, it's fully legal - no consequences for ATM owners

exchange fee from Euro to Euro is gray area and companies can operate if they have good lawyers - the issue will be settled, and ATM continue operate as is

Other

Will "Put numbers on stuff, all the time, otherwise..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 17, 7:08 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17%chance

133

OptionVotes

YES

1033

821

Will "Reducing LLM deception at scale with self-oth..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 11, 9:53 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

YES

1000

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Who will be in the top five picks of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Will the Wikipedia page titled "Nigger" be renamed to "The N-Word" or otherwise censored before 2030?

Will Adderall be legalized OTC by end of 2030?

Will pedophilia become a recognized sexual orientation similar to the others before 2030?

Will any spacecraft land or otherwise come to be on at least 3 astronomical bodies before 2040?

There will be one LLM/AI that is at least 10x better than all others in 2027

In what order will the position groups be picked in the 2026 NFL Draft?

By 2075 there will be an OTC product that can change your sexual orientation to whatever you’d like at the time.

Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?

Can EU companies charge 14% exchange rates fee for euro transactions? Resolution as soon as outcome is known. ADD yours

Will "Put numbers on stuff, all the time, otherwise..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Reducing LLM deception at scale with self-oth..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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