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Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year

Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)

Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time

Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human

Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)

Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes

Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)

Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated

Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)

Solve novel cryptic crossword clues

Name every [metro system] station whose name contains/doesn't contain [letter or letters], with >95% accuracy (excluding weird edge cases like stations with multiple names)

Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time

Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)

Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)

Write a somewhat original, full length, screen-play with a coherent story, with no plot or continuity errors.

Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user

Make correct Truchet tiles

1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human

Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools

Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)

Fold a paper airplane

Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human

Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".

Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.

Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public

Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)

teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson

Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance

Kettle-stitching an antiquarian book - Hilarius Bookbinder

Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed

Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission

independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year

Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)

voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold

Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved

Faster than light travel

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(Proportion of Markets Visible to >100 Users) * (1 if Manifold markets exist and this info is public, 0 otherwise)

Manifold will not exist in Jan 2027 OR Manifold will not primarily center around prediction markets OR Manifold won't make this information public

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