Out of Home News

Lionel Messi to score at least one goal

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200

The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals

VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions

Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage

USA survives group stage

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300

10+ goals in any match

2+ red cards in any match

2+ European countries reach top 4

Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row

The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals

Goal from last kick of the game

Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal

3+ penalty shootout

Mexico survives group stage

Canada survives group stage

The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner

South American team reaches semi-final

3+ red cards in any match

6+ yellow cards in any match

Red card issued for mouth covering

Team with 0 wins in Group Stage

Black player gets the red card

Player throws captains armband

Bicycle kick attempt

Team scores after being down to 10 men

Both teams score in stoppage time

Player scores against country of birth/heritage

Player bleeding on camera during match

Team loses possession from delay throw-in

15+ minutes of the stoppage time

Champion is unbeaten

USA player gets the red card

Disruption at Iran match

A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.

Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption

Player scores a hat-trick

Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)

Over 289.5 total goals scored*

Over 9.5 own goals scored

Over 10.5 red cards

Spain goes further than France

Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match

Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage

US scores in every single group stage match

Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)

Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match

Bottle thrown on field

Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)

Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer

Team finishes match with 9 players

25+ people arrested at stadium

French-born player scores against France

Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded

3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup

Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)

Goal scored directly from a free-kick

A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament

Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)

Champion is a first place group stage winner

First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved

Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet

Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals

Trump still alive at end of final match

“Puto” chant at match

Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor

Referee falls down

Match has a dedicated moment of silence

Any host places 1st in their group

Curaçao scores a goal

Haaland scores over 3.5 goals

Messi scores a goal at 39 years old

Both players in this photo* play each other in a match

Fan hospitalized for heat related illness

Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined

Trump attends match

Neymar plays in a match

Player dies during World Cup

Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands

An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag

A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)

At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal

Player tears their ACL

Players cleat falls off their foot

Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match

gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury

Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)

Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?

Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan

Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?

Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?

Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick

Cape Verde scores a goal

Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?

Messi to score a free kick

Ronaldo to cry at the world cup

Team loses after leading 2-0

Golden Boot Winner wears Nike branded cleats

World Cup winner to never trail in a match

Penalty shootout goes 6+ rounds

Pride flag at Egypt v Iran match

Austria Pays Its Debt to Algeria? (Austria loses or draws with Algeria AND both teams qualify. Inspired by the 1982 “Disgrace of Gijón”)

Vorzinha concedes a goal by Argentina player in regular play

First team to lead goes through in 24+ knockout matches? (penalties count)

This World Cup Market reaches 500 traders

Gianni Infantino travels more than 50K miles during the tournament by airplane

Short Fuse: The Netherlands - Morocco ends in penalties

Any match is 0-0 going into penalty shootouts

Panenka penalty to be scored

Player scores 8+ goals

Player gets a straight red card in Round of 16

A team scores 4 goals in a knockout round game

A team loses after scoring 3 unanswered goals

Spain scores 3 or more goals against Austria [Short Fuse]

An even number of games go to a shootout

Any team scores 4 unanswered goals in a knockout stage match

Flash Market: No goals in 2nd half stoppage time today (July 3 - last three Rd of 32 games)

More goals scored in 3rd Place Match than in the Final (excluding penalty shootouts)

England v Mexico Match on July 5 rescheduled to a different time? (Currently scheduled 6pm local time)

Mexicans mess with England team before match in the any way (fireworks, beeping, delays)

Paraguay is playing undeniably the Haramball tonight

German Freddy back on the twitter (formerly known as the x) before end of final

In quarterfinals, the alphabetically earlier country wins more games

team that wins bronze has more goals across tournament than both gold and silver

Infantino and Trump sitting next to each other at any match

Player scores 2+ goals in a match (QF)

Player gets 2 yellow cards in a match (QF)

Mbappe scores a non-penalty kick goal (QF)

A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (QF)

USA strikes Iran anytime from start of quarterfianals to ending of them

Trump flies in the Qatari Air Force One to final

Paraguayan Senator Celeste Amarilla goes on another rant about Mbappe before end of final

France, Spain, England & Argentina all go to Half Finales

Mikel Merino finishes the World Cup with more or the same number of goals as Lamine Yamal

A French player leaves the field injured against Spain (like Mendes and Courtois)

Goal scored in stoppage time (SF)

Over 3.5 goals scored (SF)

Goal scored from a header (SF)

Goal is disallowed for offside (SF)

Team wins by exactly 1 goal (SF)

Mitch McConnell alive for entire final match?

match

Over 4.5 goals in semi finals

Substitute scores in semi finals

Spain ball posession under 55.5% in semi final

Ball hits the woodwork in semi final match

English fans acting unruly before, during or after Argentina match

Both England and Argentina score a goal in the semifinal

Both Teams to Score Argentina/ England in 90minutes plus stoppage time. (Not Extra time)

Match ends in a draw in regular time (F)

Final combined match score is an odd number (F)

Goal is disallowed for offside (F)

Team wins by exactly 1 goal (F)

Match is won in extra-time (F)

Goalkeeper ends match with a clean sheet (F)

Substitute scores a goal (F)

Match ends 0-0 in regular time (F)

Spain first to score (F)

Match is tied at halftime (F)

First yellow card given to Argentina (F)

Player gets 2 yellow cards in a match (F)

Trump touches in any way the Messi at final match/stadium

Argentinian player leaves injured in the final (like Mendes, Courtois and Saliba)

Score 0-0 in first part of extra time

Spain wins

Argentina lose Spain

World Cup team coach resigns or is fired before end of July (after final)

Asian player gets the red card

FIFA’s official total revenue for the 2023-2026 cycle exceed $16.billion

Asian player misses penalty kick

USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further

A penalty shootout to decide the Final match

No red cards issued in the Final match

Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot

An African nation to reach the Semi-finals

5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)

15+ cards in any match

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400

Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick

Goal scored within 1st minute

Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match

Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match

20+ penalty goals

30+ penalty goals

The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner

Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match

Asia team reaches semi final

The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists

Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs

Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament

Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament

Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours

Player bit during match

Bald person gets the red card

Football is coming home?

Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant

Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)

Headbutt during match

Laser pointer on goalie during match

Someone escorted off field shirtless

Player gets spat on during match

Ronaldo gets in referee face

England loses on penalties

More own goals than red cards in tourney

VAR overturns second yellow card

Player walks off pitch protesting referee

Player shits in the pants during match

The Netherlands does not survive group stage

Confirmed case of Ebola at the match

Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing

Trump attends 3 or more games

All 3 host countries win the opener

ICE makes a capture at the stadium

Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness

Smoke bomb during match in USA

Flares in stands during match in USA

Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match

Elon Musk attends match

Betting scandal reported

Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match

All 48 teams score at least 1 goal

Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)

Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)

Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)

Over 395.5 yellow cards

Any host nation in quarter final

US goes further than Mexico

Canada goes further than US

Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)

Goal scored from own half

Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)

Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal

Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)

A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message

Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands

Team captain gets red card

Ronaldo scores before Messi

Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer

All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage

Team gets removed or disqualified

Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards

2 UEFA teams in final

Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup

Any match is canceled or postponed

Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player

Team wins a match without making a single substitution

Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits

Both teams in final have red on their flag

Team finishes third in group and makes it to final

Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal

Final features a team that has never made it to the final before

Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt

Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card

Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds

Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament

Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved

Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match

Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline

Fans invade field during match

Major security incident

Animal (not birdy) is on field during match

Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo

Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium

Match is forfeited

Bonnie Blue attending a match

4+ Corners in Every Group Stage Match

Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break

Salt Bae attending a match

King Charles attends match

Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)

Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match

Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium

Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament

USA plays Iran

Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)

Ronaldo does jerkin move

Trump dancing at match

Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties

A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner

The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds

6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage

Player suffers cardiac arrest

Winning team has a foreign manager

Omar Artan is at a World Cup match

Another match with 3+ red cards

Players / members of team attempt to defect

A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points

Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage

Freddy attends the final match

Freddy shown during a match broadcast

Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room

Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?

Messi gets a yellow card

Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)

Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final

German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt

Messi scores on every game he plays

Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?

Haaland scores on every game he plays

Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant

Champion is a first time World Cup winner

Ronaldo does not start

Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average

Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match

Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs

Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)

World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage

Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?

5+ hat tricks

Messi scores more goals than Mbappe

Penalty shootout goes 7+ rounds

Any country ranked outside FIFA Top 10 to reach semifinals (as of 6/11)

Over 14.5 own goals scored

Golden Glove Winner wears Senda, Rinat, RG, Voit or Adidas brand glove

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 310

Emmanuel Macron attends match

The Netherlands reaches half-final

16+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals inc. Extra Time (no Penalties)

17+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals - Regular time only!

France becomes finalist

France, Mexico, and Argentina all make it to the quarter finals

Belgium plays against The Netherlands

Of 5 competing continents, Europe has highest survival % in round of 32

16+ Knockout Stage Clean Sheets (0–0 after ET counts as 2)

Short Fuse: Germany scores 3 or more goals against Paraguay

FIFA officially apologizes or announces a general review of the VAR system following Germany’s disallowed goal vs Paraguay

Messi scores a goal in every match Argentina plays in

Overall penalty conversion rate to be 66.67% or higher ( all penalties no matter when)

Norway becomes finalist

Panenka penalty to be bottled

Three straight games going to penalties

Messi scores a goal in penalty shootout

Any team gets to penalty shootout and doesn't score a goal

Player with 9 or more assists

Enock Kabwende shown during broadcast

Announcer says Doctor Congo during 7/1 match broadcast

Any Trump attending BIH v USA match

Lead (or tied lead) goal scorer is on the team that wins the World Cup

World Cup winner won at least 2 games by shootout

A host country reaches the semi-finals

Belgium becomes finalist

Croatia gets a red card against Portugal [Short Fuse]

In knockouts, more teams with red cards WIN their matches

Round of 16 Special: „My vision, my rules“ - Referee sticks to original (no) Penalty, Goal or Red Card decision after On-Field Review

🇦🇷 ARG vs CPV 🇨🇻 – ARG wins both halves and scores more than three times as many goals as CPV

Own goal is scored (Rof16)

Over 1.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (Rof16)

Ronaldo scores a non-penalty kick goal (Rof16)

Team wins by exactly two goals (Rof16)

Mbappe doing the dictator point

Red card in CAN v MAR?

In round of 16, the alphabetically earlier country wins more games

3 continents reach semifinals

France's appeal successfully overturns Michael Olise's yellow card before the quarter-finals kickoff

Player doing lip trill shown in slow motion during final match broadcast on FOX

Trump attending the USA Belgium match

Trump takes credit for USA win within 1 day

Trump mentioned during USA BEL Fox broadcast today

Pitch Invader during USA BEL match today

Frances' tournament ends before Graham Platner drops out of Maine Senate race

"Is the TV broken?": There will be 4 or more On-Field Reviews (OFR) from the Quarterfinals onwards

"Shocking decision, Ref!": Any goal disallowed by VAR in the Quarterfinals AND any goal disallowed by VAR in the Semifinals (according to ESPN)

There will be a single leader in the Golden Boot ranking after the Quarterfinals (no tiebreak applies)

Norway player displays the flu like symptoms during match

Match ends 0-0 in regular time (QF)

Own goal is scored (QF)

Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (QF)

Over 1.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (QF)

Announcer says "Tom Brady" during France v Morocco

Player gets straight red card (QF)

Trump picks team he is supporting to win for the final game

Sam Altman attends final

JD Vance attends final

Morrocans stealing the towels or water bottles during game

Any Morrocan gets the red card

Morocco player picks up a ball during France possession 3+ times

France player picks up a ball during Morocco possession 3+ times

Shirtless player on field during match (QF)

Messi misses another penalty shot - includes shootout (QF-F)

Messi subbed out before the end of a match he played in (QF-F)

[France + Argentina] score more goals than [Spain + England] (SF)

Player scores 2+ goals in a match (SF)

Over 0.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (SF)

Match ends 0-0 in regular time (SF)

All teams score 1+ goals (SF)

Mbappe scores a non-penalty kick goal (SF)

Goal scored within the first 15 minutes (SF)

Own goal is scored (SF)

Player gets a straight red card (SF)

A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (SF)

Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (SF)

Shirtless player on field during match (SF)

Match is won in extra-time (SF)

Yellow card given for simulation (SF)

Harry Kane scores a non-penalty kick goal (SF)

Bellingham gets yellow card (SF)

Both players in this photo* score and/or assist (SF)

Strait of Hormuz open at start of final match?

Over 17.5 corners in semi finals

Mbappe & Oyarzabal to record 2+ shots on target in semi final

Gavi shown card in semi final

Otamendi shown card in semi final

Anything occurring to make it historical final

The market creator deems the result of the final to have been swayed by bias from the referee

Two different players with the same jersey number score in the final

Mbappé leads Golden Boot race after 3rd place match & Messi overtakes in Final to win the Award

Mbappé less than 60 mins on the pitch in Consolation Final 3./4.

Sore Losers: Any player or official from the losing team to instantly remove or reject their silver medal after the Final

Own goal is scored (F)

Intruder on field during match (F)

Goal scored in stoppage time (F)

Over 2.5 goals scored (F)

Player scores 2+ goals in a match (F)

Penalty kick missed during regular/extra time (F)

Goal scored from a header (F)

A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (F)

Player gets a straight red card (F)

Penalty kick is given in 2nd half (F)

Argentina last to score (F)

[France + Argentina] score more goals than [Spain + England] (F)

Goal scored within the last 15 minutes (F)

Match ends 1-1 in regular time (F)

Final score is 1-2 or 2-1 (F)

Match ends with penalty shoot-out (F)

Winning team has lower total ball possession (F)

Both teams score 1+ goals in 2nd half (F)

Goal is scored from outside the penalty box (F)

Over 1.5 goals scored (F)

All teams score 1+ goals (F)

First yellow card in 2nd half given to Spain (F)

Goal scored in first 15 minutes of 2nd half (F)

Argentina first to score in 2nd half (F)

No yellow cards given in 1st half (F)

Goal scored within the first 15 minutes (F)

Yellow card given for simulation (F)

Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (F)

Both players in this photo* score and/or assist (F)

Argentina gets a penalty in regular time in the finals

Banner referencing historical territorial dispute visible during final or 3rd place match

"Albiceleste Cardiac Arrest": Argentina scores the game's final goal from 75' onward to win or force extra time (F)

"Pessi's Redemption": Messi scores a penalty and wins the Golden Boot

Javier Milei tweets VLLC or "Viva la libertad carajo" before the winning captain lifts the trophy (F)

The final score in the final is an internet certified funny number e.g. 2-1, 6-7, 6-9, 4-20 (ascending and descending order allowed)

Score 0-0 in second part of extra time

Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases

Gene Editing Therapies

Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat

Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile

Regenerative Medicine

Brain-Computer Interfaces

Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat

Heat pumps and solar panels for heating homes

Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles

Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer

Male pattern baldness treatment that consistently turns Nowood 7 to Norwood 1 (no surgery/grafts)

Solar panels with 40% efficiency

Bioprinting

Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases

Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships

a molecule derived using Alphafold (current or successor models) achieves over $1B of commercial retail sales

Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)

viable cloned organs using your own DNA as base (i.e. no autoimmune organ rejection)

Human-level AGI

Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars

Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³

Seafloor Mining Robots

Space-Based Manufacturing

Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew

Non-invasive colon cancer screening that is equally or more effective than a Colonoscopy

Quantum Computing Applications

Graphene semiconductor electronics

ASI

Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure

Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery

Lunar Bases

Moon base

Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use

More than half of all commercial ships built between 2030-2050 have the option to supplement their power burn with wind power (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R6ln7pr5QU)

Major resurgence of lighter than air craft for shipping or consumer travel/leisure

Britain finishes HS2

Direct Cognitive Collaboration

Photonic computing

A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years

Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities

Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue

Commercial asteroid mining

Datacenters in space

Hypersonic commercial passenger travel

Sand Batteries (Polar Night Energy) to store energy for months.

Joywire

Commercial fusion power

Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors

Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)

Fast travel across the globe

AI that produces AAA-level video games via end-user prompts

Medication that adds 30 lbs+ muscle with no major negative health effects

Nuclear powered cargo ships

City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks

Nuclear microreactors that can be used anywhere

Mars Base

Nuclear Thermal Rockets

Point-to-Point Suborbital Spaceflight (Regularly Scheduled Passenger Transport)

Cryonics with Successful Revival

Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol

Commercial satellite to ground power transmission

Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories

Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure

Human Mind Uploading

Changing the height of an adult at will

Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)

Orbital Habitats

Fusion Drives

Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells

Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation

Space-to-Earth power stations

Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light

Human sex change at chromosome level

Changing a person's race at will

Von Neumann Probe

A skyhook space structure in LEO

Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months

Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities

Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids

Vacuum Airships

Time travel to the future

Commercial cold fusion

Space Elevator

Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms

Antimatter bombs

Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)

Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)

1% Dyson sphere coverage

Faster then Light Propulsion

2h marathon has been officially broken by a human

Neuralink trials have happened with volunteer humans

New Pope after Francis

three or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

Bitcoin has reached $100K at some point

Taylor Swift has been married

Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons

Gold has reached $2500/oz at some point

ETH Ethereum has reached $2800 USD (again)

S&box fully released (Facepunch's new garry's mod like game)

Coyote vs Acme releases or leaks

Ethereum ETH has reached $4000 again

USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)

True Detective Season 5 released

xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month

Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter

publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably

Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport

Destiny is still regularly livestreaming

No humans on the moon since Apollo

Mr Beast has 500M or more subscribers on Youtube

Xi still leader of China

Kingdom Hearts 4 has released

Chat GPT 7 or higher available for public use

Slavoj Zizek still giving public talks

Putin still leader of Russia

Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta

Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan

Palworld is still able to be played through Steam

the game Rust is still receiving regular updates with new content (not just bug / small fixes)

@strutheo is still on Manifold, with the same username

a twitter account has reached 500M followers

Charles still King of UK

Team Fortress 2 is still receiving periodic blog posts / small updates

One Piece manga is still going (original series)

The tenth drop of the pitch drop experiment has fallen

Flo is still the progressive mascot (the actress still working )

At least one of the other prediction market websites has gone out of business

Winner of 2028 election is Democrat

George RR Martin has released the next GoT / ASOIAF book (The Winds of Winter)

Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling

Hytale has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

Nintendo still manufacturing Switch

Apex Legends is still receiving updates and servers are online

The Nintendo Switch successor console has sold at least 65 million units

Total mana bet on Manifold has peaked to 10B in one day at least once

Family Guy has ended

Avatar still has the record for highest worldwide movie gross on BoxOfficeMojo

the Rmax of the top non distributed supercomputer is at least 3000 PFlop/Sec (according to top500.org)

Jared Fogel OR Fetty Wap is out of prison

prong.studio still operational and selling products

Chameleon Twist 3 has released (or another sequel)

Kojima's Physint game has released

Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time

Old School Runescape has released Sailing and at least 1 other new skill

Weak AGI achieved, as indicated by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

there will be a USA federal holiday in August (confirmed happening in 2028 or next year in 2029)

Magic the Gathering card has sold for $1M or more (other than the One Ring!)

Petco will have filed for bankruptcy

Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions

Manifold has sold $40K or more mana in the last 30 days before market close

A second feature length South Park movie has released (like South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut)

at least one spider man movie releases each year

1200 or more official pokemon

Annoying Orange youtube channel is still uploading at least one video a month

Palestine / Israel will have come to an agreement on borders (post Oct 7)

Russia AND ROC are both forbidden from entering the Olympics still

Nintendo ends online play and other online services for Switch (as they did for WiiU and 3DS on April 8th 2024)

Rabbit is still selling R1 (or a sequel product) and it can be purchased by the average consumer

Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician

The New England Patriots have either won a Super Bowl (2024-2027 seasons) or clinched the division (2028)

A North American team has won a Dota 2 International for the first time since 2015

jd vance has been president or wins the election to be one

Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing

X (Twitter) brand has changed again (either back to Twitter or something other than X)

Amazon #1 book is a self-help book

A new official weapon has been added to Team Fortress 2 since after 2017

I'll be dead.

Build a Bear will have filed for bankruptcy or been bought

NFL has an official expansion team in Europe somewhere

Manifold has collapsed / bankrupt at least once already

Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

China - Taiwan war / invasion begins

Dwarf Fortress ceases active development

doomsday clock is 100 seconds or more from midnight

All 9 current Supreme Court justices from today (Jan 2024) are still serving

There will be a breakthrough in nuclear weaponry

Taylor Swift has been divorced

a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons

Turkey has a higher GDP (PPP) than the United Kingdom

At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power

China has landed a human on the moon

Mana can be donated to charity through Manifold at the same rate (1 cent = 1 mana)

Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use

a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated

someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating

The record for youngest Best Actor Academy Award Broken (Adrien Brody, The Pianist, age 29)

Josh Shapiro is the President-elect of the United States

JB Pritzker is the President-elect of the United States

Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)

Gretchen Whitmer is the President-elect of the United States

Jared Polis is the President-elect of the United States

No humans exist

Manifold Love is still getting updates or community support/events

*Markdown* formatting in comments and elsewhere

Other

ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.

The ability to look for related markets in the API.

Linkable Comments

Ability to optionally privately enter your expectation of outcome when making a purchase, for the purpose of having a personal calibration curve. Justification: I find that making calibration curves for myself is fun and helps improve my forecasting, and that my calibration curve gets less accurate after a few months if I stop practicing. But the practice takes effort, which could be piggy-backed on the forecasting activity of participating in prediction markets for less effort than doing it seperately.

Reminders. Allow users to set a custom reminder to return to a market.

Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction

Merge duplicate Answers for multiple Answer Questions https://manifold.markets/Honourary/will-manifold-markets-add-a-merge-f

Ability to short multiple choice answers

Retroactively close a market, undoing bets after the new close time. (Reward predictions before the events happened, not betting really quickly after hearing the news.)

Resolve market to probabilities other than market probabilities. Useful for betting on outcomes of other markets.

Short answers on free response questions

Graph showing the pool size of a market over time

A meta-market. Simple exchange that lets you place a bid/sell order for shares of whatever market.

Set a time to stop allowing creation of new free response answers separately from the market close time

We need numerical range questions. Many topics are way more informative when expressed that way, over a Yes No.

Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.

Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)

Ability to include a short message when resolving a market

A "poll" category of market. You can buy as many votes as you want but the payout is unrelated to which answer wins. (Could be zero, could reverse the system so bettors get 4% and the creator gets the balance, or something else.)

Reducing the number of personal questions (eg. "Will I do ...")

Market Indicies, Allowing Multiple Markets to Be Combined Into One and Automatically Weighted with Drag and Drop Type Feature

Show currently placed on market overviews, like https://manifold.markets/markets (it is easy to forget where loans were used)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to not have ability to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow users to edit their comments

In "Your Trades", show each market's M$ pool

Reduced fees for long horizon markets to increase trading volume.

Upload photos with comments. Useful for proof of results and other fun things.

I would like there to be a feature that integrates something like an RSS feed. If key words or phrases about specific event occurs, trading is suspended until the market is either resolved or the RSS notification is tagged as a false positive. As what often happens, the gains of many bettors are wiped out by slow resolutions of markets.

Zoom on the chart

Statements

Kelly

The ability to subsidize markets, putting up money to enhance liquidity and encourage participation, without taking a particular side of the bet. (The thing that the ANTE option on this market is trying to do, just in a more formal and less ad-hoc way, which would also work for YES/NO markets.)

Aggregate your own trades in timeline view (avoid long list).

Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.

Trade fractional mana

When creating a free answer market, add a starting set of answers without betting.

Combinatorial Prediction Markets

Ability to delete comments.

Load pages faster (Android mobile).

More explanation for people who don't know anything about prediction markets.

Mechanism for making decisions (built-in bundle of conditional markets?) with better incentives for betters (not beauty contest)

Filter OUT market categories on the homepage.

Private messages to users

Ability to select multiple categories of markets on the home page.

Trusted users can add category tags to markets that aren't their own

User create their own currency

Zen mode: Hide the probabilities from the user until they decide to buy.

Market Scanner (like stock screeners)

A player will have a 40/40 season

A player will hit for the cycle

A team will complete a triple play

A team will lose 100+ games

A player will record 40+ saves

A team will record a combined no-hitter

A manager will be ejected 5+ times in one season

A player will record 3+ intentional walks in one game

A pitcher will record 10+ strikeouts in three consecutive starts

A team will have 3 players with 30+ home runs

The Dodgers will 3-peat

A player will hit > 62 homeruns

A player will pitch a perfect game

A player will pitch a no hitter

A player will record 300+ strikeouts

A player will record 200+ hits

A team will win 110+ regular season games

A player will record 50+ stolen bases

A player will record a .400+ batting average

A player will hit 4+ home runs in a single game

A player will hit for the triple crown

A player will record a 30-game hitting streak

A player will record 100+ extra-base hits

Will Boots (@OnlyBoot) resolve these 7 stale lines before the Divisional Playoffs conclude?

A single player scores 55+ home runs in the season (2023: 54 by Matt Olson)

A team steals 200+ bases (2023: Reds had 190)

At the end of the season, there's a 50+ win gap between two teams in a division

The MLB dissolves before 2050

A team scores 22+ points in any single game (2023: 1x)

Ohtani is suspended by MLB at any point

A pitcher pitches a perfect game

A team hits 300+ HRs (2023: Braves had 307)

A team reaches the World Series with less than 90 regular season wins (2023: D’Backs had 84)

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Aliens

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Other

Simulation Hypothesis

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

National Wealth Fund established and granted >=£7.3 billion seed capital

House of Lords hereditary peers prevented from sitting and voting

Voting franchise extended to 16 and 17 year olds

Minimum wage set at level equal to recommendations of the Resolution Foundation

>=40k increase in weekly GP appointments

2030 ban on new petrol and diesel car sales

UK energy independence from fossil fuels

>=1.5 million new homes built

Will the venue be in Europe?

Will any game feature an opening move other than 1. e4 or 1. d4?

Will White win more games than Black?

Will the match be decided before Game 14?

Will a player who loses a game eventually win the match?

Will there be a streak of 4 or more consecutive draws?

Will the match be tied (e.g., 1–1 or 2–2) after the first four games?

Will there be 4 or more decisive (non-draw) games in the classical portion?

Will any game exceed 100 moves?

There will be more decisive games than the previous Championship (5)

Will the match be decided by a margin of 2 or more points in the classical portion?

Will Magnus Carlsen provide official commentary for at least one game? (Stays on any stream for >= 45 minutes)

Will Game 1 or Game 2 be a decisive result (not a draw)?

Will Gukesh win a game immediately following a loss?

Will it be decided by tiebreaks?

Gukesh retains his WC title

Will the match begin before November 1, 2026?

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (2022 value: 2.0m)

Customer Service Representatives (2022 value: 2.9m)

Office Clerks, General (2022 value: 2.5m)

Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive (2022 value: 1.8m)

Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks (2022 value: 1.6m)

Retail Salespersons (2022 value: 3.6m)

Fast Food and Counter Workers (2022 value: 3.3m)

Cashiers (2022 value: 3.3m)

Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand (2022 value: 2.9m)

Stockers and Order Fillers (2022 value: 2.8m)

Waiters and Waitresses (2022 value: 2.1m)

Software Developers (2022 value: 1.5m)

Home Health and Personal Care Aides (2022 value: 3.5m)

General and Operations Managers (2022 value: 3.4m)

Registered Nurses (2022 value: 3.1m)

Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners (2022 value: 2.1m)

First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers (2022 value: 1.5m)

Chris Gilmer-Hill, Michigan State House, District 8 (Primary)

Rashida Tlaib, MI-12 (Primary)

Donavan McKinney, MI-13 (Primary)

Robert LeVertis Bell, Kentucky State House, District 43 (General)

YES on Safe Homes St. Paul

Angela Gonzales-Torres, CA-34

Misael Ramos, Austin City Council, District 1 (Runoff)

Cori Bush, MO-01 (Primary)

Dave Zeglen, Ann Arbor City Council, Ward 4 (Primary)

Juliana Bennett, Wisconsin State Assembly, District 76 (Primary)

Oliver Larkin, FL-25 (Primary)

Evan Mackay, Massachusetts State House, District 25 (Primary)

Andrea Parr, Louisville Metro Council, District 9 (General)

Las Vegas (including Paradise)

Sacramento (including West Sacramento)

Somewhere within the San Francisco Bay Area

Somewhere else in California