Out of Home News

Lionel Messi to score at least one goal

Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage

USA survives group stage

2+ red cards in any match

Goal from last kick of the game

Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal

Mexico survives group stage

3+ red cards in any match

6+ yellow cards in any match

Red card issued for mouth covering

Team with 0 wins in Group Stage

Black player gets the red card

Bicycle kick attempt

Team scores after being down to 10 men

Both teams score in stoppage time

Player scores against country of birth/heritage

Player bleeding on camera during match

Team loses possession from delay throw-in

Player scores a hat-trick

Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match

Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match

Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)

Team finishes match with 9 players

French-born player scores against France

Goal scored directly from a free-kick

A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament

Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals

“Puto” chant at match

Referee falls down

Any host places 1st in their group

Curaçao scores a goal

Haaland scores over 3.5 goals

Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands

At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal

gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury

Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan

Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick

Cape Verde scores a goal

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200

Canada survives group stage

Trump still alive at end of final match

3+ penalty shootout

Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing

The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals

Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer

Fan hospitalized for heat related illness

20+ penalty goals

Over 9.5 own goals scored

Over 10.5 red cards

Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined

Neymar plays in a match

Trump attends match

Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match

Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet

Players cleat falls off their foot

Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded

Messi scores a goal at 39 years old

Ronaldo to cry at the world cup

A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)

US scores in every single group stage match

Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)

Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?

VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions

South American team reaches semi-final

Champion is unbeaten

Bottle thrown on field

Champion is a first place group stage winner

Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)

2+ European countries reach top 4

Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row

Asian player misses penalty kick

Golden Boot Winner wears Nike branded cleats

Ronaldo gets in referee face

Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match

Any host nation in quarter final

Messi gets a yellow card

Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?

Asian player gets the red card

Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt

Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)

The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner

5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)

Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament

A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.

No red cards issued in the Final match

US goes further than Mexico

Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?

Over 289.5 total goals scored*

Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?

The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner

Freddy attends the final match

Both teams in final have red on their flag

Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)

Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage

Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits

Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick

Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match

Someone escorted off field shirtless

More own goals than red cards in tourney

Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament

Elon Musk attends match

USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further

15+ minutes of the stoppage time

Team loses after leading 2-0

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300

Messi to score a free kick

Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness

A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message

Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved

Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match

Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium

2 UEFA teams in final

Player tears their ACL

Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours

Flares in stands during match in USA

Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor

Spain goes further than France

Laser pointer on goalie during match

Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup

Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match

Goal scored within 1st minute

VAR overturns second yellow card

Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption

Any match is canceled or postponed

The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals

30+ penalty goals

USA player gets the red card

Disruption at Iran match

Betting scandal reported

Canada goes further than US

Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal

6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage

3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup

5+ hat tricks

Team captain gets red card

Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?

Winning team has a foreign manager

Haaland scores on every game he plays

Bald person gets the red card

Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass

Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match

Over 395.5 yellow cards

Both players in this photo* play each other in a match

Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)

A penalty shootout to decide the Final match

Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final

Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match

World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage

Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)

First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved

Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties

Champion is a first time World Cup winner

Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs

Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs

Smoke bomb during match in USA

Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)

Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player

Match has a dedicated moment of silence

Messi scores on every game he plays

Ronaldo does not start

The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists

Player gets spat on during match

25+ people arrested at stadium

Salt Bae attending a match

Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)

Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards

Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo

Freddy shown during a match broadcast

England loses on penalties

Final features a team that has never made it to the final before

Animal (not birdy) is on field during match

An African nation to reach the Semi-finals

ICE makes a capture at the stadium

Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)

Goal scored from own half

Fans invade field during match

Player throws captains armband

Headbutt during match

Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match

King Charles attends match

Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?

Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average

Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)

All 48 teams score at least 1 goal

Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)

Another match with 3+ red cards

Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage

Asia team reaches semi final

Football is coming home?

Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands

All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage

Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament

Player walks off pitch protesting referee

Team wins a match without making a single substitution

Major security incident

Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)

Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?

Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline

German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt

15+ cards in any match

Player bit during match

Trump attends 3 or more games

Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer

Bonnie Blue attending a match

Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot

Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)

Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)

Match is forfeited

Trump dancing at match

The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds

10+ goals in any match

An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag

Team gets removed or disqualified

Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament

USA plays Iran

The Netherlands does not survive group stage

Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal

Team finishes third in group and makes it to final

Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card

Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium

Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)

Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400

Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant

Player shits in the pants during match

Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds

Omar Artan is at a World Cup match

Players / members of team attempt to defect

Confirmed case of Ebola at the match

Ronaldo does jerkin move

A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner

Player dies during World Cup

A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points

Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant

Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)

Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match

Player suffers cardiac arrest

All 3 host countries win the opener

Ronaldo scores before Messi

Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases

Gene Editing Therapies

Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile

Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat

Regenerative Medicine

Brain-Computer Interfaces

Heat pumps and solar panels for heating homes

Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles

Solar panels with 40% efficiency

Bioprinting

Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat

Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases

Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships

Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew

Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)

viable cloned organs using your own DNA as base (i.e. no autoimmune organ rejection)

Human-level AGI

Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars

Space-Based Manufacturing

A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years

Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³

Seafloor Mining Robots

Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer

Quantum Computing Applications

Non-invasive colon cancer screening that is equally or more effective than a Colonoscopy

Graphene semiconductor electronics

Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery

Lunar Bases

Moon base

Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure

Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use

Male pattern baldness treatment that consistently turns Nowood 7 to Norwood 1 (no surgery/grafts)

Major resurgence of lighter than air craft for shipping or consumer travel/leisure

Britain finishes HS2

More than half of all commercial ships built between 2030-2050 have the option to supplement their power burn with wind power (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R6ln7pr5QU)

Photonic computing

Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities

Commercial asteroid mining

Datacenters in space

Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)

Hypersonic commercial passenger travel

Sand Batteries (Polar Night Energy) to store energy for months.

Joywire

Nuclear powered cargo ships

Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors

Fast travel across the globe

Commercial fusion power

AI that produces AAA-level video games via end-user prompts

Medication that adds 30 lbs+ muscle with no major negative health effects

Mars Base

City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks

Nuclear microreactors that can be used anywhere

Nuclear Thermal Rockets

Point-to-Point Suborbital Spaceflight (Regularly Scheduled Passenger Transport)

Cryonics with Successful Revival

Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue

Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)

Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol

Commercial satellite to ground power transmission

Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure

Changing the height of an adult at will

Von Neumann Probe

Orbital Habitats

Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories

Fusion Drives

Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation

Human Mind Uploading

Space-to-Earth power stations

Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light

Direct Cognitive Collaboration

Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities

Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells

A skyhook space structure in LEO

Human sex change at chromosome level

Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months

Changing a person's race at will

Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids

Vacuum Airships

Time travel to the future

Commercial cold fusion

Space Elevator

Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms

Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)

Antimatter bombs

Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)

1% Dyson sphere coverage

Faster then Light Propulsion

Micron Technology (MU)

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

ExxonMobil (XOM)

Lam Research (LRCX)

Applied Materials (AMAT)

Alphabet Class A (GOOGL)

Alphabet Class C (GOOG)

Caterpillar (CAT)

Chevron (CVX)

Broadcom (AVGO)

Costco (COST)

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Walmart (WMT)

Amazon (AMZN)

UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

Coca-Cola (KO)

Merck & Co. (MRK)

Nvidia (NVDA)

Citigroup (C)

Cisco (CSCO)

Morgan Stanley (MS)

Philip Morris (PM)

Goldman Sachs (GS)

Procter & Gamble (PG)

Apple (AAPL)

T-Mobile US (TMUS)

Netflix (NFLX)

Eli Lilly (LLY)

RTX Corporation (RTX)

GE Aerospace (GE)

McDonald's (MCD)

Meta Platforms (META)

Tesla (TSLA)

JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

Bank of America (BAC)

Home Depot (HD)

Oracle (ORCL)

AbbVie (ABBV)

Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

Visa (V)

American Express (AXP)

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)

Mastercard (MA)

Microsoft (MSFT)

Salesforce (CRM)

AppLovin (APP)

Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)

Wells Fargo (WFC)

IBM (IBM)

*Markdown* formatting in comments and elsewhere

Other

ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.

The ability to look for related markets in the API.

Linkable Comments

Ability to optionally privately enter your expectation of outcome when making a purchase, for the purpose of having a personal calibration curve. Justification: I find that making calibration curves for myself is fun and helps improve my forecasting, and that my calibration curve gets less accurate after a few months if I stop practicing. But the practice takes effort, which could be piggy-backed on the forecasting activity of participating in prediction markets for less effort than doing it seperately.

Reminders. Allow users to set a custom reminder to return to a market.

Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction

Merge duplicate Answers for multiple Answer Questions https://manifold.markets/Honourary/will-manifold-markets-add-a-merge-f

Ability to short multiple choice answers

Retroactively close a market, undoing bets after the new close time. (Reward predictions before the events happened, not betting really quickly after hearing the news.)

Resolve market to probabilities other than market probabilities. Useful for betting on outcomes of other markets.

Short answers on free response questions

Graph showing the pool size of a market over time

A meta-market. Simple exchange that lets you place a bid/sell order for shares of whatever market.

Set a time to stop allowing creation of new free response answers separately from the market close time

We need numerical range questions. Many topics are way more informative when expressed that way, over a Yes No.

Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.

Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)

Ability to include a short message when resolving a market

A "poll" category of market. You can buy as many votes as you want but the payout is unrelated to which answer wins. (Could be zero, could reverse the system so bettors get 4% and the creator gets the balance, or something else.)

Reducing the number of personal questions (eg. "Will I do ...")

Market Indicies, Allowing Multiple Markets to Be Combined Into One and Automatically Weighted with Drag and Drop Type Feature

Show currently placed on market overviews, like https://manifold.markets/markets (it is easy to forget where loans were used)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to not have ability to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow users to edit their comments

In "Your Trades", show each market's M$ pool

Reduced fees for long horizon markets to increase trading volume.

Upload photos with comments. Useful for proof of results and other fun things.

I would like there to be a feature that integrates something like an RSS feed. If key words or phrases about specific event occurs, trading is suspended until the market is either resolved or the RSS notification is tagged as a false positive. As what often happens, the gains of many bettors are wiped out by slow resolutions of markets.

Zoom on the chart

Statements

Kelly

The ability to subsidize markets, putting up money to enhance liquidity and encourage participation, without taking a particular side of the bet. (The thing that the ANTE option on this market is trying to do, just in a more formal and less ad-hoc way, which would also work for YES/NO markets.)

Aggregate your own trades in timeline view (avoid long list).

Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.

Trade fractional mana

When creating a free answer market, add a starting set of answers without betting.

Combinatorial Prediction Markets

Ability to delete comments.

Load pages faster (Android mobile).

More explanation for people who don't know anything about prediction markets.

Mechanism for making decisions (built-in bundle of conditional markets?) with better incentives for betters (not beauty contest)

Filter OUT market categories on the homepage.

Private messages to users

Ability to select multiple categories of markets on the home page.

Trusted users can add category tags to markets that aren't their own

User create their own currency

Zen mode: Hide the probabilities from the user until they decide to buy.

Market Scanner (like stock screeners)

Playable on Nintendo Switch 2 on release

Pikachu can be caught in-game

Choice of Fire, Water and Grass type starters (or same with secondary typing)

Two matching games released simultaneously

Titles are “Wind(s)” and “Wave(s)”

Features “traditional” turn based battles

Mega Evolution is a feature

At least one previously unused type combination receives a Pokémon

Has 5.0 or higher Metacritic user score 3 months after release (either entry)

At least 100 new Pokemon are introduced

DLC announced before launch date

Pokémon Home compatibility on launch

At least 3 previously unused type combinations receive a Pokémon

Has an online ranked ladder for doubles battles

The Stellar type is present in any way

Eevee receives a new evolution

Returns to a region from a previous main series game

At least 5 previously unused type combinations receive a Pokémon

Paradox Pokémon available before first DLC

Z-Moves are a feature

At least 151 new Pokemon are introduced

Features real time battles similar to Legends ZA

An entirely new Type is introduced

Playable on Nintendo Switch on release

Has any voice acting

Terastallization is a feature

Game is set in European inspired region

A change is made to the existing type effectiveness chart

All Pokemon are in the Game

Dynamax is a feature

Romance mechanics between the player and Pokemon

Released on or before 1st October 2025

Released on or before 1st January 2026

Released on or before 1st April 2026

Released on or before 1st July 2026

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Aliens

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Other

Simulation Hypothesis

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

National Wealth Fund established and granted >=£7.3 billion seed capital

House of Lords hereditary peers prevented from sitting and voting

Voting franchise extended to 16 and 17 year olds

Minimum wage set at level equal to recommendations of the Resolution Foundation

>=40k increase in weekly GP appointments

2030 ban on new petrol and diesel car sales

UK energy independence from fossil fuels

>=1.5 million new homes built

Will any game feature an opening move other than 1. e4 or 1. d4?

Will White win more games than Black?

Will a player who loses a game eventually win the match?

Will there be a streak of 4 or more consecutive draws?

Will the match be decided before Game 14?

Will the match be tied (e.g., 1–1 or 2–2) after the first four games?

Will any game exceed 100 moves?

Will there be 4 or more decisive (non-draw) games in the classical portion?

There will be more decisive games than the previous Championship (5)

Will the match be decided by a margin of 2 or more points in the classical portion?

Will the venue be in Europe?

Will Magnus Carlsen provide official commentary for at least one game? (Stays on any stream for >= 45 minutes)

Will Game 1 or Game 2 be a decisive result (not a draw)?

Will Gukesh win a game immediately following a loss?

Gukesh retains his WC title

Will it be decided by tiebreaks?

The "Home Field" Factor: Will the venue be in either India or Uzbekistan?

Opening food cans

Doing my nails

At least 5 of the above

Washing the dishes/filling and refilling wash machine

Hunting obnoxious insects at home

Cooking food

Cleaning home

Washing, drying and ironing clothes

Buying food on my behalf

Taking my car to the mechanic

Taking my car to refill

Giving me a haircut

Driving my car

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (2022 value: 2.0m)

Customer Service Representatives (2022 value: 2.9m)

Office Clerks, General (2022 value: 2.5m)

Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive (2022 value: 1.8m)

Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks (2022 value: 1.6m)

Retail Salespersons (2022 value: 3.6m)

Fast Food and Counter Workers (2022 value: 3.3m)

Cashiers (2022 value: 3.3m)

Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand (2022 value: 2.9m)

Stockers and Order Fillers (2022 value: 2.8m)

Waiters and Waitresses (2022 value: 2.1m)

Software Developers (2022 value: 1.5m)

Home Health and Personal Care Aides (2022 value: 3.5m)

General and Operations Managers (2022 value: 3.4m)

Registered Nurses (2022 value: 3.1m)

Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners (2022 value: 2.1m)

First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers (2022 value: 1.5m)

PC / Laptop

Home Console

Handheld Console

Augmented / Virtual Reality

Something totally other

Streaming to any device

Smartphone

Holodeck

Arcade Cabinet

Las Vegas (including Paradise)

Sacramento (including West Sacramento)

Somewhere within the San Francisco Bay Area

Somewhere else in California