OptionProbability
Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer
Wolverine - Gulo gulo 🥉🥉
Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait - Laticauda colubrina 🥉
Sonoran Desert Sidewinder - Crotalus cerastes cercobombus
Coyote - Canis latrans
[⚔️Underdog] Sulfur Cave Molly - Poecilia sulphuraria 🥉🥉
Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius
Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus 🥉
House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus
[⚔️Frontrunner] Sea Otter - Enhydra lutris
❌Defeated: Lion - Panthera leo 🥈🥉🥉[beat by Dolphin]
❌Defeated: Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus [beat by Giant Nematode]
❌Defeated: Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Brown Rat]
❌Defeated: Dog - Canis familiaris 🥉🥈 [beat by Leopard seal]
❌Defeated: Cat - Felis catus 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Tiger - Panthera tigris 🥈🥈 [beat by Sulfur Cave Molly]
❌Defeated: Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus 🥉 [beat by Leopard Seal]
❌Defeated: Elephant - Loxodonta africana 🥈🥈[beat by Giant Nematode]
❌Defeated: Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca [beat by Polar Bear]
❌Defeated: Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri 🥉 [beat by Wolverine]
❌Defeated: Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum [beat by Great black-backed gull]
❌Defeated: Orca - Orcinus orca [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis 🥈 [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Hotwheels sisyphus spider - Hotwheels sisyphus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus 🥈 [beat byt Cat]
❌Defeated: Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus 🥈🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Red Fox]
🚫Ineligible: Water bear - Milnesium tardigradum
❌Defeated: Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens 🥉 [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
🚫Ineligible: human [I'm shortening this]
🚫Ineligible: Tardigrade (LFG)
❌Defeated: Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias [beat by Lion]
🚫Ineligible: [This animal was edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Wolf - Canis lupus [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes 🥉🥈 [beat by Giant Pacific Octopus]
❌Defeated: Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus 🥉🥉 [beat by Western Lowland Gorilla]
❌Defeated: Haast's Eagle - Hieraaetus moorei [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima 🥉🥉 [beat by Wolverine]
❌Defeated: Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus [beat by Dog]🥉🥉🥈
❌Defeated: Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana [beat by Cat]
❌Defeated: Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus [beat by Ice Worm]
❌Defeated: Great evening bat - Ia io [beat by Lion]
❌Defeated: Funny valentine spider - Funny valentine [beat by Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian]
❌Defeated: Yi qi dinosaur - Yi qi [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Aha ha wasp - Aha ha [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti [beat by Cat]
❌Defeated: Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Cuban Cockroach - Panchlora nivea [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Panther Chameleon - Furcifer pardalis [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Giant Dragonfly - Meganeuropsis permiana [beat by Red Fox]
❌Defeated: Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini 🥉[beat by Ice Worm]
❌Defeated: Triceratops - Triceratops horridus [beat by Red Volcano Sponge]
❌Defeated: Giant Pterosaur - Quetzalcoatlus northropi [beat by Ping-Pong Tree Sponge]
❌Defeated: Lesser Flamingo - Phoeniconaias minor [beat by Honey Badger]
❌Defeated: Kiwi - Apteryx australis [beat by Dog]
❌Defeated: Red Volcano Sponge - Acarnus Erithacus 🥉[beat by Platypus]
❌Defeated: Ice Worm - Mesenchytraeus solifugus 🥉🥉[beat by Tiger]
❌Defeated: Meerkat - Suricata suricatta 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait]
❌Defeated: Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Tiger]
❌Defeated: Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus 🥉 [beat by Western lowland gorilla]
❌Defeated: Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx 🥉🥈 [beat by Sulfur Cave Molly]
❌Defeated: Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Penguin]
❌Defeated: Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri [beat by Lion]
❌Defeated: Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi 🥈[beat by Brownthroated three-toed sloth]
❌Defeated: New World Screwworm - Cochliomyia hominivorax [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉 [beat by Western lowland gorilla]
❌Defeated: Chinese giant salamander - Andrias davidianus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
🚫Ineligible: [edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Australopithecus - Australopithecus afarensis [beat by Platypus]
Other
12
11
11
11
11
9
8
8
8
3
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department
Flag desecration prohibition passed
Any vaccines banned for any group of people
J6er pardoned
Sports team invited to the white house
A member of Congress is censured or expelled
The democrats take control of the house of representatives
Significant Rogue AI Incident
Blue wave in 2026 midterm elections
Democrats win Iowa governorship
Republicans lose the house majority in midterms
James Talarico wins Texas senate election
Rob Sand wins 2026 Iowa governor election
Katie Hobbs win 2026 Arizona governor election
@DudleyDOODOO creates over 80 options for this market
Prohibiting or restricting transgender care for adults
Democrats win the early voting race game and win the midterms
Democracy survives
Generative AI becomes permanent part our daily lives permanently
Mass Deportations
Trump is impeached
A major insider trading scandal linked to the US executive branch
Democrats win back the white house in 2028
Giorgia Meloni wins reelection prime minister
Left-wing CPAC alternative launches
RFK Jr impeached
Suffer a fall in public
Nicolas Maduro prosecuted and imprisoned for life
Chuck Grassley dies
Peter Hotez goes to prison
Convergence Magazine (Organizing Upgrade) shut down and cease to exist
@dudleyDOODO creates over 50 options that are either illogical, incomprehensible or too vague to resolve
Another project 2025 launched by Heritage Foundation for GOP 2029 presidency
All pseudo-legal sovereign citizen international tribunals causes all prediction markets as concept to defunct and cease to exist
Drone strike in Mexico by US
Nuclear weapon detonation
AGI achieved
US punitive expedition in Mexico
Starlink satellites damaged by US adversary
A second pope is elected
Republicans win the white house in 2028
Deep funding cuts to NIH, NSF, FDA, CDC, HHS, EPA fully implemented and becomes law
Democrats win trifecta in 2026 midterms
100k humanoid robots manufactured
All pseudo-legal sovereign citizen international tribunals causes all AI technologies and generative ai to defunct and cease to exist
Reiner Fuellmich released from prison
350 million people or more die, according to expert estimates
Another covid-like pandemic
NIH, CDC, FDA, HHS, NSF abolished permanently
Bell tower added at the US Capitol
Pauline Hanson becomes Australia prime minister
Reiner Fuellmich's Nuremberg 2.0 occurs and becomes reality
Science and public health infrastructures dies
All COVID-19 vaccines pulled off market entirely
Abolish vaccine funding entirely permanently
Zach Lahn wins Iowa 2026 governor election
Alice Weidel becomes German chancellor
Climate change infrastructures abolished permanently
MAGA and Trump challenge 2026 midterm GOP losses
A human walks on the Moon
Joe Exotic is released from prison
Nuremberg 2.0 over pandemics becomes reality and occurs
Patriots for Europe controls European parliament and wins majority
It ends with JD Vance becoming president
Antifa dissolves
Post-WW2 international orders die and abolished
AfD controls chancellorship and AfD becomes chancellor
Mark Carney wins 2029 Canada election
Vaccine research and projects permanently abolished
NASA abolished
US captures Daniel Ortega and all other leftist leaders worldwide
Europe of Sovereign Nations controls European parliament and wins majority
Measles vaccines abolished and pulled off market
Adam Schiff goes to prison
Chris Whitty goes to prison
European countries all under far-right regime control
Steve Bannon runs for 2028 president
Probabilistic forecasting dies, extinct, defunct, and cease to exist
Fauci and other scientist experts go to prison
Actblue shut down and cease to exist
All prediction markets defunct and cease to exist permanently
World war 3 and global war launch
Metaculus shut down and cease to exist
Room temperature superconductor discovered
Elon Musk is arrested for treason
China invades Taiwan
US military intervention on Canadian territory
Apple, Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, Perplexity defunct and cease to exist
Latin American countries all under far-right regime control
Ilhan Omar deported
Soros family goes to prison
Tulsi Gabbard is arrested for treason
Coup attempt in the United States
All in person comic con events get cancelled throughout 2020s
Republicans leads in early and mail in voting in midterms
Roberto Vannacci becomes Italy prime minister
Hillary Clinton goes to prison
All international NGOs defunct and cease to exist
Lula's 2026 Brazil election victory overturned and tilted to Bolsonaro
Any part of Greenland becomes de facto US territory (excludes military bases)
Republicans win control of the house
All type of vaccines abolished and pulled off market
Fauci goes to prison
Manifold market shut down and cease to exist
US withdraws from United Nations
Viktor Orban returns as prime minister
GOP, Trump, and MAGA controls all election infrastructures away from state governments
Russia invades all European countries
Barack Obama goes to prison
Nigel Farage becomes UK prime minister
Abolish global health funding and infrastructures
Abolish global vaccine funding and vaccine infrastructures permanently
Mass imprisonment of scientists, public health officials, pandemic officials and others worldwide
Far-right seizes all American universities nationwide
Global far-right alliances abolishes and defuncts generative AI and all AI technology
Global far-right alliances abolishes and defuncts all prediction markets
Anti-AI movement abolishes and defuncts all AI technologies and infrastructures
The Senate eliminates the filibuster
Largest solar flare since Carrington Event
Democracy dies
All left-wing pro democracy and pro science organizations shut down
World Health Organization dissolved and abolished
Far-right seizes all American institutions
All US citizens arrested, detained, and targeted by ICE
Nuclear war
Reform UK wins UK 2029 election
World becomes global far-right regime
Russia invades all NATO countries
Bill Gates goes to prison
All media under right-wing control
North Korea bombs and invades South Korea
Elon Musk buys the 2026 midterm elections
US captures Lula and removes him from office
Supreme Court packing
22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms
Donald Trump reelected President
United States and the world becomes totalitarian dictatorship
All federal and state judges impeached
All Democrats imprisoned
Iran, Russia, North Korea, and China bombs US mainland
Rupert Lowe becomes UK prime minister
Human extinction
US buys Greenland and becomes 52nd state
Democrats permanently locked out of power
Democrats lose the house in 2026 midterm election
All scientists, doctors, pandemic experts, and all other public health officials go to prison
Eagles three-peat
2026 midterm election gets stolen by Trump and GOP and tilted in ruling party's favor
Abolish elections permanently
Russia invades all continents and controls the world globally
All Trump opponents go to prison
Canada becomes 51st state
Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran invades US mainland
Republicans win the early voting race game and win the midterms
Republicans surprisingly win the house in 2026 midterms
Abortion permanently banned nationwide and worldwide
End Russo-Ukranian war in 90 days
Red wave in 2026 midterm elections
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
99
99
99
98
96
95
94
91
73
73
71
63
60
58
50
46
44
44
42
35
34
30
29
28
27
25
25
24
24
24
23
23
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
18
17
17
17
17
17
15
15
14
14
14
13
12
12
12
12
12
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
OptionProbability
Atlanta Braves
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies
Chicago Cubs
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
Houston Astros
San Diego Padres
Seattle Mariners
Cleveland Guardians
Chicago White Sox
Arizona Diamondbacks
Texas Rangers
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
New York Mets
Minnesota Twins
St. Louis Cardinals
Detroit Tigers
Cincinnati Reds
San Francisco Giants
Washington Nationals
Kansas City Royals
Oakland Athletics
Miami Marlins
Pittsburgh Pirates
Los Angeles Angels
Colorado Rockies
90
90
87
86
84
80
80
72
63
56
51
46
46
44
39
25
24
23
22
20
13
13
8
6
5
5
3
3
2
2
OptionProbability
World's First Trillionaire
Measles Outbreak
I do 1 (one) Pull-up
Blue Wave
Big Youtuber Quits
New Smell Invented
Chevy Bolt is a Huge Success
New dinosaur named for tiktok thing
World's 1st Trillionaire No longer a Trillionaire
Dark "Saved by the Bell" Reboot
GTA6 Saves or ruins the economy
Apple Vision Amateur
ad supported medical care
Billionaire Sperm Bank
Beloved actor cast as Elon in biopic
Trump Declares Himself an Olympian
Famous person marries an AI
RFK jr gets himself fired
Waymo Car learns to do donuts
Shadow Biosphere
New Particle
OpenAI Makes GPT Phone
T.Swift Married in Montana
NVDA Down 35% From Peak
"Don't Die" guy does funniest possible thing
95
89
85
83
69
65
60
36
35
34
31
31
28
25
20
19
18
18
13
13
10
9
5
5
3
OptionProbability
A. Death by paperclips, eternal torment of all humans by AI, or similar unalignment catastrophe.
F. AI wipes out most jobs as in D. People not forced into mind-uploads or experience machines. General perception that AI has made life more meaningful/fulfilling&improved the human experience on dimensions other than hedonium maximization.
I. AI soon hits fundamental scaling laws and we go into another AI winter.
G. AI development continues but doesn't change things too much, somehow. Most jobs, even low-level white collar jobs, don't get impacted too hard, as new work is found to replace newly automated work. Labor force participation remains high.
B. Governments and/or other powerful entities use AI as a tool of repression, enabling global techno-totalitarianism along the model of China during Zero Covid or worse.
C. AI doesn't actively want to hurt us, but (possibly aided by transhumanists) they become obsessed with utility maximization and force us all into mind-uploads and/or experience machines to free up resources for more computronium.
H. Humanity coordinates to prevent the development of significantly more powerful AIs.
D. AI wipes out most white-collar jobs within a decade and most blue-collar jobs within a generation; powerful humans and/or AIs at least seriously consider disposing of the "useless eaters" en masse, us being powerless to resist.
E. AI wipes out most jobs as in D. No disposing of the human masses, but general perception that AI has made life less meaningful/fulfilling & significantly worsened the human experience on dimensions other than hedonium maximization.
39
24
16
10
5
3
3
2
1
OptionProbability
death stranding 2 releases
The official name of Elder Scrolls 6 is announced
bitcoin reaches 80k
end of Blue Monday 2025 (jan 15)
Slay the Spire 2 releases on steam early access
Next President is sworn in ( even if it's Biden )
Silksong
mr beast hits 250M subs on youtube
Alec Baldwin case ends
Trump running mate announced
2024 election is called by AP
The Federal Reserve decreases interest rates
Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
Solar panels removed from the White House (again).
tortured poet's department releases
the end of manifest 2024
the start of manifest 2024
julian Assange extradited to usa
spiderman beyond the spiderverse releases
gta 6 releases
Joe Biden passes away or is murdered
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
he outlives inflation in the usa (trailing 12 month CPI increase less than 2% before he dies)
Lantern bioworks Lumina treatment given FDA approval for something
binance cease operating
Windows 12 released
trump found guilty of a crime
the ukraine russia war ends
human walks on the moon again
The last case of Guinea worm in humans
azerbaijian invades armenia
first female president
Ukraine joins NATO
destiny goes on joe rogan
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
96
92
90
90
86
76
57
54
50
50
50
50
41
40
34
23
22
20
20
14
13
12
11
8
5
4
3
3
OptionProbability
Blue wave midterms
Cyber terrorism incident
AI slop completely takes over platforms
More assassinations
Obesity rates dramatically decline
Chain movie theaters close across the country
More governments embrace Bitcoin
Really bad hurricane season
AI bubble pops (but it's not that bad)
Americans become more united
Trump has (another?) stroke
A major merger of streaming services
Solar power doubles
Emo makes a comeback
YouTube surpasses Netflix in paid subscribers
Stagflation
Gen Alpha rebels against digital media
EV sales skyrocket
A new nonpartisan political movement starts
Robot restaurant trend
War with Venezuela
Everyone becomes a hipster
Twitter shuts down
Measles cases triple
75
72
66
66
66
50
50
45
41
41
37
34
34
34
34
26
24
24
24
24
17
17
17
11
OptionProbability
Dog
Blue whale
Platypus
Panda
Homo Sapiens Sapiens
Bat
Pangolin
Wooly mammoth
Passenger Pigeon
Saber tooth tiger
Neanderthal
62
56
50
49
48
44
44
31
23
18
7
OptionProbability
black/brown (coal gasification)
green (renewable electricity + water electrolysis)
gray (steam methane reforming)
white/gold (geologic: stimulated serpentinization or microbial biogeochemistry)
pink (nuclear electricity + water electrolysis)
blue (steam methane reforming + carbon capture)
turquoise (methane pyrolysis)
Other
24
22
20
11
10
5
4
4
OptionProbability
Blue Origin
SpaceX
Neither by December 31, 2032
48
41
11
OptionProbability
Q3 2027
Q4 2027
Q1 2028
Q2 2027
Q2 2028
Q4 2030
Other
Q3 2028
Q3 2029
Blue Moon HLS Cancelled
Q2 2030
Q3 2030
Q4 2028
Q1 2030
Q1 2027
Q1 2029
Q2 2029
Q4 2029
10
10
10
7
7
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
3
3
3
2
OptionProbability
brown
orange
purple
green
blue
red
yellow
17
17
17
17
17
8
6
