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Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

May 5, 11:03 AMJan 2, 1:16 AM

5%chance

11057283195

OptionVotes

YES

7014

2095

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Feb 4, 10:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.92%chance

8144171126

OptionVotes

YES

3493

1824

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

Mar 11, 5:11 PMJan 2, 10:00 AM

7.79%chance

4761716626

OptionVotes

YES

5033

1788

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.92%chance

326859763

OptionVotes

YES

7157

3586

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Feb 26, 6:16 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

11.52%chance

209282721

OptionVotes

YES

4337

1310

Will it become illegal to move >$50K/year out of the United States?

Apr 28, 7:34 PMJan 1, 8:33 PM

4.33%chance

2541018

OptionVotes

YES

47011

2129

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2029?

May 22, 9:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

1.42%chance

7840845

OptionVotes

YES

10787

981

Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?

Jul 5, 12:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2.13%chance

7126323

OptionVotes

YES

2991

1557

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Oct 5, 6:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

22.08%chance

129959

OptionVotes

YES

18787

5319

Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?

Apr 7, 2:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.8%chance

345924

OptionVotes

YES

2398

778

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Jul 2, 11:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71040

OptionProbability

Other "loud" outcome

non-hedonic utilitronium

Orgasmium

Matrioshka brains to simulate zillions of ems

initiate vacuum collapse

It will be "quiet" and not significantly alter the rest of the universe.

Paperclips or widgets

Matrioshka brains to simulate torture of everyone who didn't help create it

Literal rats on literal heroin

Wait till carbon white dwarfs cool enough to turn to diamond and then cut them into cool shapes

Conditional on first contact with aliens, will aliens wipe out humanity by 2100?

Jul 27, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.76%chance

11242

OptionVotes

YES

1135

926

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Prediction markets for Oute

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Prediction markets for Oute

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Will it become illegal to move >$50K/year out of the United States?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2029?

Will a nuclear war wipe out humanity by 2030?

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Conditional on first contact with aliens, will aliens wipe out humanity by 2100?

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