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Prediction markets for Output Language

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33264

2509

When will AI pass @jim's "agents benchmark"?

Feb 15, 5:30 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

3210943

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2024

2028

Other

2029

2030

78

8

6

2

2

2

1

1

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.5%chance

2010838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15423

3517

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2027?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

87.15%chance

404338

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1984

682

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.66%chance

434022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3633

1265

In what month of year 2026 perl 5.44.0 will be released

Jan 2, 12:26 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM

53930

OptionProbability

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

perl 5.44.0 will not be released in 2026

01

02

03

04

05

41

39

6

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?

Feb 27, 11:31 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

15.34%chance

533171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1805

749

LLM or AI written US Federal Laws before 2027

Feb 25, 1:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.83%chance

18967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

934

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

Will @mayaofspring pass JLPT N1 in December 2026?

May 17, 1:01 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

61.77%chance

3324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1271

787

Will Nintendo use LLM to generate lines for Luigi or Waluigi in any video game before 2033?

Mar 14, 4:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.7%chance

10221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

328

94

Will the Sunshine Protection Act or permanent DST become law by August 28, 2028 (8/28/28)?

Jun 11, 11:09 AMAug 27, 11:59 PM

18.54%chance

387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

74

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