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Prediction markets for Output Language

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33264

2509

When will AI pass @jim's "agents benchmark"?

Feb 15, 5:30 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

3210943

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2024

2028

Other

2029

2030

78

8

6

2

2

2

1

1

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.5%chance

2010838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15423

3517

Thinking Machines' first LLM announcement date

Aug 8, 7:25 PMDec 31, 8:23 PM

146821

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

Before September 2026

Before August 2026

Before July 2026

Before June 2026

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before 2026

Before February 2026

Before March 2026

Before April 2026

Before May 2026

80

73

69

66

60

54

47

41

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2027?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

88.22%chance

394318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2127

662

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.66%chance

434022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3633

1265

Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?

Feb 27, 11:31 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

15.34%chance

533171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1805

749

LLM or AI written US Federal Laws before 2027

Feb 25, 1:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.47%chance

18867

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

972

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

In what month of year 2026 perl 5.44.0 will be released

Jan 2, 12:26 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM

3485

OptionProbability

06

05

07

04

08

03

09

10

11

12

perl 5.44.0 will not be released in 2026

01

02

21

18

17

7

7

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

Will Nintendo use LLM to generate lines for Luigi or Waluigi in any video game before 2033?

Mar 14, 4:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.7%chance

10221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

328

94

Is Nick Cammarata right: LLM will be able to mechanistically audit own circuits and explain ghiblification in 2Y?

Mar 28, 6:07 AMMar 28, 6:05 AM

23.18%chance

8179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

182

55

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