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Prediction markets for Output Language

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2027?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

88.27%chance

384317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2134

661

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.66%chance

434022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3633

1265

Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025?

Mar 20, 2:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.35%chance

343752

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1245

808

Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026?

Oct 26, 7:07 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.61%chance

483671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1696

644

Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?

Feb 27, 11:31 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

15.34%chance

533171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1805

749

LLM Hallucination: Will an LLM score >90% on SimpleQA before 2026?

Oct 31, 1:56 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.49%chance

233005

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1237

808

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.67%chance

171570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6171

4649

LLM or AI written US Federal Laws before 2027

Feb 25, 1:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.01%chance

17767

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

948

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

Will researchers discover unintended presence or utilization of steganography in LLM outputs by 2026? [Gwern's Idea]

Apr 23, 8:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31%chance

10410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

252

134

Will there be realistic AI generated video from natural language descriptions by the start of 2026?

Jan 17, 5:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.75%chance

7186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112

89

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