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Prediction markets for Output Language

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.67%chance

8149972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28379

3002

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.2%chance

17132633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14073

7523

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.39%chance

2112795

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13866

3633

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2027?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

86.76%chance

414345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1937

689

Kimi K4 released in 2026?

Jul 25, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.6%chance

134235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

525

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.89%chance

444068

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3679

1257

Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?

Feb 27, 11:31 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

13.07%chance

543421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2055

707

LLM or AI written US Federal Laws before 2027

Feb 25, 1:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.83%chance

18967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

934

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

Will @mayaofspring pass JLPT N1 in December 2026?

May 17, 1:01 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

61.77%chance

3324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1271

787

Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?

Jun 30, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.16%chance

5144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

Will the Sunshine Protection Act or permanent DST become law by August 28, 2028 (8/28/28)?

Jun 11, 11:09 AMJul 29, 6:58 AM

31%chance

5109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

94

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