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Output Language News

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.62%chance

8132937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22319

3938

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date

Aug 8, 7:45 PMDec 31, 8:44 PM

114955

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

Before September 2026

Before August 2026

Before July 2026

Before June 2026

Before May 2026

Before April 2026

Before March 2026

Before February 2026

Before 2026

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

75

70

66

63

59

55

50

40

34

28

20

15

6

0

0

0

0

Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025?

Mar 20, 2:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.8%chance

394800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2315

434

LLM Hallucination: Will an LLM score >90% on SimpleQA before 2026?

Oct 31, 1:56 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.71%chance

244605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2408

415

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2027?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

88.27%chance

384317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2134

661

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.66%chance

434022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3633

1265

Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026?

Oct 26, 7:07 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.23%chance

503977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1976

572

Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?

Feb 27, 11:31 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

15.34%chance

533171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1805

749

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.66%chance

191588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6173

4649

LLM or AI written US Federal Laws before 2027

Feb 25, 1:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.47%chance

18867

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

972

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) feature natural and convenient speech-to-speech capabilities?

Apr 25, 11:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80.6%chance

10467

OptionVotes

NO

YES

454

92

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