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will human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?

Nov 7, 12:59 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

33.35%chance

2720656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6224

5524

Will over 1000 people live permanently outside Earth's atmosphere by 2050?

Aug 17, 12:33 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

43.37%chance

868457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

950

Will a nation outside of Europe or South America make it to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?

Aug 9, 1:31 PMJul 20, 3:59 AM

12%chance

273924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1868

798

Will the right wing in the United States attempt to "cancel" a candy product outside of M&Ms before 2025

Aug 14, 2:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.64%chance

111899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2023

494

Will humans have developed the infrastructure to extract rare elements from sources outside of Earth by the year 2200?

Jan 25, 2:24 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

92.23%chance

231069

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1462

914

Will a human baby be born outside Earth by 2040?

Mar 4, 3:43 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

26.51%chance

23924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

944

Will an FPV drone be used in the commission of a crime outside of the country of Russia in 2025?

Feb 11, 8:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50%chance

13577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

778

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

35.95%chance

13376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

853

Will "Most smart and skilled people are outside of ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 16, 2:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.99%chance

3305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1269

962

Will there be a soccer game outside of earth’s atmosphere by the end of 2040

Apr 3, 4:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.45%chance

10225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

929

Will "SAE feature geometry is outside the superposi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 25, 4:11 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.46%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

753

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