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Apple Sets Sept. 9 ‘Awe Dropping’ Event to Unveil iPhone 17 Lineup

Apple Sets Sept. 9 ‘Awe Dropping’ Event to Unveil iPhone 17 Lineup

111

7 months ago

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.85%chance

17412342820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11659

8923

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

Jan 1, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

120324346

OptionProbability

Any model announced before 2034

Any model announced before 2033

Any model announced before 2032

Any model announced before 2031

Any model announced before 2030

Any open-weights model announced before 2030

Any model announced before 2029

Any model announced by Anthropic before 2030

Any model announced by Google before 2030

Any model announced by OpenAI before 2030

Any model announced by a Chinese lab before 2030

Any model announced before 2028

Any model announced by xAI before 2030

Any model announced by Meta before 2030

Any model announced by SSI before 2030

Gemini 4

GPT-6

Any model announced before 2027

Any model announced before July 1, 2026

Claude 3.5 Opus

Any Claude 5 model

Grok 5

Claude 5 Opus

Gemini 3.5

OpenAI o4

GPT-5.5

DeepSeek-V4

GPT-5

Grok 3

OpenAI o3

Any model announced before 2026

Llama 4

GPT-4.5

Gemini 2.5

Gemini 3

Any Claude 4 model

grok-4

Sonnet 4.5

Kimi K2

GPT-5.1

Claude 4.5 Opus

GPT-5.2

Opus 4.6

GPT-5.4 (x-high fast)

90

88

86

85

81

81

80

73

73

72

65

60

58

56

54

27

24

23

14

13

13

13

13

12

10

10

6

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.46%chance

283283146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6817

3928

How many weeks will the US–Iran war last?

Mar 7, 9:10 AMApr 8, 9:59 PM

328154774

OptionProbability

Above 1 week

Above 2 weeks (Mar 14)

Above 3 weeks (Mar 21)

Above 4 weeks (Mar 28)

Above 6 weeks (Apr 11)

Above 9 weeks (May 2)

Above 13 weeks (May 30)

Above 20 weeks (Jul 18)

Above 35 weeks (Oct 31)

Above 55 weeks (Mar 20, 2027)

Above 80 weeks (Sep 11, 2027)

Above 110 weeks (Apr 8, 2028)

100

100

100

98

93

77

64

45

36

29

17

15

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Nov 8, 11:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.71%chance

10641414

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1402

713

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

Jan 8, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90%chance

1129061

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

33

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

36.31%chance

5711924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

643

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1511432

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

63

54

42

28

9

5

Will Iran's regime fall before end of 2027?

Feb 12, 6:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.65%chance

5210448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

794

Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 7:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.14%chance

587850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

947

Will Cameron R get a girlfriend before..?

Feb 15, 1:28 AMJun 16, 12:24 AM

81910

OptionProbability

He holds his high school diploma

Before jan 1 2027 12am pacific time

Before 12am pacific first day of school 12th grade

41

22

12

Anthropic flips OpenAI before 2027?

Dec 4, 5:18 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

40.15%chance

341215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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