Pacing News

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Nov 17, 12:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7%chance

21358835

OptionVotes

YES

5411

1075

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Aug 26, 7:20 PMAug 24, 6:59 AM

6.99%chance

12120999

OptionVotes

YES

3646

274

Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?

Jan 22, 1:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

18.52%chance

5613897

OptionVotes

YES

1766

605

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Mar 16, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

175913

OptionProbability

The existence of Dark Matter explains the anomaly in galaxy rotation curves (85%)

COVID-19 was natural in origin (80%).

The Lost Colony of Roanoke colonists have living decedents (55%)

The Mar Saba letter discovered by Morton Smith and containing excerpts from the "Secret Gospel of Mark" is a modern forgery (25%)

D.B. Cooper survived his parachute jump and escaped (30%)

The Hubble Tension can be resolved without new physics or changes to cosmological models (55%)

JonBenét Ramsey was killed by a member of her family (10%)

Lizzie Borden killed her parents (10%)

Aaron Kosminski was Jack the Ripper (35%)

The Voynich manuscript is a meaningful text (15%)

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

35.49%chance

483349

OptionVotes

YES

1417

1169

Will "this rapid-fire, breakneck pace continue for four full years"?

Feb 4, 9:59 PMNov 5, 10:59 PM

27.63%chance

201909

OptionVotes

YES

1372

129

Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years

Sep 10, 10:38 AMSep 17, 10:59 PM

46.43%chance

91725

OptionVotes

YES

1074

931

Will there be >1 kg of sample material sent to Earth from Mars by 2035?

Sep 12, 6:41 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

65.31%chance

171471

OptionVotes

YES

1504

232

How many tech workers will be laid off in 2026?

May 23, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51370

OptionProbability

>=150K (deceleration scenario, like 2024)

>=225K( sustained current pace; rivals 2023)

>= 300K (acceleration; AI wave intensifies)

>= 400K (new all-time high, crisis territory)

<=150K (cuts collapse, would require a near-halt in H2)

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

Jan 1, 1:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.94%chance

17652

OptionVotes

YES

1088

822

2027 Humanoid 10K: 8-Minute Mile Pace Challenge

Feb 5, 1:14 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

92.25%chance

3245

OptionVotes

YES

345

Will the Lancet Retract the PACE Trial before 2030

Jun 28, 9:27 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

15.86%chance

2133

OptionVotes

YES

230

Pacing News

Prediction markets for Pacing

Prediction markets for Pacing

Prediction markets for Pacing

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?

What will my beliefs about unsolved mysteries be in 2045?

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Will "this rapid-fire, breakneck pace continue for four full years"?

Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years

Will there be >1 kg of sample material sent to Earth from Mars by 2035?

How many tech workers will be laid off in 2026?

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

2027 Humanoid 10K: 8-Minute Mile Pace Challenge

Will the Lancet Retract the PACE Trial before 2030

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