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Prediction markets for Packs

Will “The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom” get an expansion pack?

Dec 9, 9:01 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

3.37%chance

298063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1362

727

Will we have cheap long-distance jet packs by 2030?🔥

Jul 18, 8:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.13%chance

523832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1203

937

Will our friend J. get a 6-pack by his wedding in 14 months?

Aug 7, 5:04 PMOct 31, 5:01 PM

37.37%chance

162923

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1295

772

Does a better packing of 17 squares into a square exist?

Feb 10, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.95%chance

392631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

913

Court packing during Trump administration?

Sep 22, 3:48 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

13%chance

162101

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2587

387

Is this packing of three squares in a circle optimal?

Sep 26, 6:13 PMDec 31, 7:12 PM

96.28%chance

131135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

509

20

Will any OEM be producing LLZO solid-state battery packs at commercial scale (≥1 GWh/year) by December 31, 2027?

Apr 7, 2:56 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

71.31%chance

9689

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

8

Will any OEM be producing LLZO solid-state battery packs at commercial scale (≥1 GWh/year) by December 31, 2029?

Apr 7, 2:56 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

65.52%chance

3361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155

44

Is the best packing of 17 squares inside a square with the sides of precisely the feigenbaum constant?

Dec 21, 6:57 AMDec 1, 9:59 PM

6.76%chance

8291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

441

75

When will a robot assemble flat-pack furniture from printed instructions?

Feb 25, 4:23 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

2181

OptionProbability

>=2036

Jan 2028-Dec 2029

Jan 2026-Dec 2027

Jan 2030-Dec 2031

Jan 2032-Dec 2033

Jan 2034-Dec 2035

22

19

16

16

13

13

How many microcancers is one six pack of beer?

Aug 16, 5:06 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.08%chance

5169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

73

Robotic mule - A pack robot which works on a beach available by mid 2033

Feb 20, 6:46 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

79.12%chance

9161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

215

146

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