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Prediction markets for Pages

Will there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)

Sep 29, 7:00 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

2.35%chance

72114465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15315

596

Will Amanda Askell have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?

Jan 24, 9:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.55%chance

2834265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8247

121

Will the Wikipedia page titled "Nigger" be renamed to "The N-Word" or otherwise censored before 2030?

Dec 28, 7:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.75%chance

234192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4668

746

I remember this market and open this page between May 1-3, 2026?

Aug 3, 9:23 PMMay 4, 9:19 PM

77.14%chance

61083

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1837

544

How long until AI can generate original pages of an "I Spy" style picture book?

Jan 7, 8:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

42.92%chance

17822

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1097

737

Will anyone be removed from "OpenAI o1 Contributions" by 2027, if the page still exists?

Sep 13, 4:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.67%chance

6440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

974

By 2040, will there be a Wikipedia page about a China-India war that started after 2019?

Apr 9, 2:28 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

62.04%chance

8181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155

111

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.06%chance

7158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

258

39

By 2040, will Shakespeare's Wikipedia page say it's likely Thomas North authored at least one play attributed to him?

Sep 9, 4:44 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15%chance

6140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Wikipedia pages about books have useful information on book length (word count) by mid 2028

Apr 29, 8:08 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

26.73%chance

6129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

83

150+ page fanfic romance novel of janus/@repligate with gwern by EOY2028

Apr 24, 7:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.33%chance

316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

93

Will a 100+page book called "Isaak Freeman and the Goblet of Fire" be written by EOY2045?

Sep 24, 7:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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