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Prediction markets for Pages

Will there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)

Sep 29, 7:00 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

2.35%chance

72114465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15315

596

Will Amanda Askell have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?

Jan 24, 9:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.65%chance

2416060

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3552

282

Will the Wikipedia page titled "Nigger" be renamed to "The N-Word" or otherwise censored before 2030?

Dec 28, 7:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.75%chance

234192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4668

746

How long until AI can generate original pages of an "I Spy" style picture book?

Jan 7, 8:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

42.92%chance

17822

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1097

737

🧠 When will IdeaRank for people replace PageRank for pages?

Oct 8, 5:01 PMDec 31, 5:58 PM

5510

OptionProbability

January 1, 2026

November 1, 2025

4

3

Will anyone be removed from "OpenAI o1 Contributions" by 2027, if the page still exists?

Sep 13, 4:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.67%chance

6440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

974

How many pages will the fifth volume of Robert Caro's "The Years of Lyndon Johnson" have?

Feb 27, 2:56 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6320

OptionProbability

Above 300

Above 600

Above 900

Above 1200

Above 1500

Above 2000

Above 2500

96

91

75

57

36

26

20

I remember this market and open this page between May 1-3, 2026?

Aug 3, 9:23 PMMay 4, 9:19 PM

54.17%chance

5233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

920

If the ICJ rules Israel is not committing genocide in Gaza, will this appear on Wikipedia's main page within 30 days?

Oct 26, 4:58 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

67.46%chance

9147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

69

By when will the Wikipedia page "Gaza genocide" be deleted or retitled?

Oct 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 3:17 AM

9132

OptionProbability

Before 2045

Before 2040

Before 2035

Before 2030

55

42

34

29

150+ page biography of Nick Cammarata by EOY2026

Feb 17, 10:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.62%chance

175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

150+ page biography of Rona Wang by 2031

Apr 23, 10:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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