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Prediction markets for Pages

Will there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)

Sep 29, 7:00 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

2.35%chance

72114465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15315

596

Will Amanda Askell have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?

Jan 24, 9:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.57%chance

2834266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8306

120

Will the Wikipedia page titled "Nigger" be renamed to "The N-Word" or otherwise censored before 2030?

Dec 28, 7:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.75%chance

234192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4668

746

Will CAISI have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?

Jul 2, 11:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77%chance

91676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1830

547

How long until AI can generate original pages of an "I Spy" style picture book?

Jan 7, 8:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

46.2%chance

18872

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1147

675

Will Illinois' AI safety bill have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?

Jul 8, 6:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.27%chance

9831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1745

573

Will anyone be removed from "OpenAI o1 Contributions" by 2027, if the page still exists?

Sep 13, 4:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.67%chance

6440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

974

Will hosting a site on GitHub pages cost money before 2027?

Jan 23, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.9%chance

8148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

318

152

Will Larry Page (cofounder of Google) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

May 16, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.86%chance

4104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

56

150+ page biography of Rona Wang by 2031

Apr 23, 10:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

150+ page fanfic romance novel of janus/@repligate with gwern by EOY2028

Apr 24, 7:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.33%chance

316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

93

Will a 100+page book called "Isaak Freeman and the Goblet of Fire" be written by EOY2045?

Sep 24, 7:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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