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Prediction markets for Palestinian conflict

Will the death toll in the current Israel-Palestinian conflict reach 100,000?

Oct 22, 5:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.36%chance

5619635

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1222

571

End of war Israel-Palestine before 2026

Jul 29, 6:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.55%chance

375766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1622

617

🇮🇱 🇵🇸 What is the most likely future of Israel/Palestine: a one-state or two-state solution?

Nov 13, 7:01 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

755005

OptionProbability

🇮🇱 One-state solution, under the name Israel

🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Two-state solution

🤯 Any other solution that won't use the name Israel and/or Palestine

🇵🇸 One-state solution, under the name Palestine

61

35

3

1

Has Israel used recordings of crying children or distressed women to lure Palestinians out of hiding?

Apr 18, 2:44 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

14.42%chance

311958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

838

Will Mahmoud Khalil be deported from the US or leave it due to harassment by the end of 2025?

Mar 9, 11:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.51%chance

351865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

316

131

Will there be a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal before September 2025?

Jul 28, 3:04 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

26.38%chance

251063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1671

599

Will Indonesia open embassy in Israel before the end of 2025

Apr 11, 4:51 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

18.82%chance

19973

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1749

725

Will South Park season 27 criticize Israel or the United States' support for Israel?

Apr 2, 8:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.69%chance

10249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

994

What led to lasting peace in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

Jul 12, 1:37 PMJan 12, 10:59 PM

311

OptionProbability

Other

The Arab Peace Initiative

The coming of Messiah

81

17

2

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