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Prediction markets for Pap

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.91%chance

48290236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7317

4961

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 9:01 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

68.81%chance

9511449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1278

769

Which of the following parties will be in office on December 31, 2028?

Aug 9, 4:31 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

686265

OptionProbability

CCP (China)

BJP (India)

PAP (Singapore)

CDU (Germany)

United Russia (Russia)

LDP (Japan)

Labour (UK)

DPP (Taiwan)

Republican Party (USA)

Brothers of Italy (Italy)

TDP (Turkmenistan)

AKP (Turkey)

PT (Brazil)

DPK (South Korea)

PSOE (Spain)

PFDJ (Eritrea)

PSUV (Venezuela)

Democratic Party (USA)

Renaissance (France)

Likud (Israel)

SPD (Germany)

Fidesz (Hungary)

Liberal Party (Canada)

97

94

93

83

82

78

69

60

55

50

50

47

45

43

38

38

35

34

32

31

30

29

27

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

49.32%chance

425307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

986

Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2037

Dec 22, 7:04 PMJun 30, 6:59 AM

49.5%chance

191780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.04%chance

141122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1879

176

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

56.48%chance

31967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

753

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

71.61%chance

29939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

981

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper?

Sep 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.5%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

971

Will "Auditing Games for Sandbagging [paper]" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 12:30 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "A Review of Anthropic's Global Workspace Paper" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 8, 3:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Citation trends for the AdS/CFT paper

Oct 11, 3:18 PMOct 19, 3:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

50

50

50

50

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