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Prediction markets for Pap

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

53.15%chance

277452880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6256

2822

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.63%chance

48090212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7394

4937

Which of the following parties will be in office on December 31, 2028?

Aug 9, 4:31 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

585248

OptionProbability

CCP (China)

PAP (Singapore)

BJP (India)

CDU (Germany)

United Russia (Russia)

LDP (Japan)

Labour (UK)

DPP (Taiwan)

Democratic Party (USA)

Brothers of Italy (Italy)

TDP (Turkmenistan)

AKP (Turkey)

PT (Brazil)

Fidesz (Hungary)

Republican Party (USA)

DPK (South Korea)

PSOE (Spain)

PFDJ (Eritrea)

PSUV (Venezuela)

Renaissance (France)

Likud (Israel)

SPD (Germany)

Liberal Party (Canada)

97

93

90

83

82

80

75

60

50

50

50

47

45

45

44

43

38

38

35

32

31

30

24

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

46%chance

384735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

923

Will any country stop using paper currency by end 2029?

Sep 9, 9:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.09%chance

422838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

926

Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2037

Dec 22, 7:04 PMJun 30, 6:59 AM

46.38%chance

161699

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

930

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

56.48%chance

31967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

753

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

71.61%chance

29939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

981

Will Michael Levin have a paper on bioelectricity or related systems which has over 2000 citations, by mid 2031

Jan 25, 11:12 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

49.28%chance

10704

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

986

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

13533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

481

Will "Auditing Games for Sandbagging [paper]" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 12:30 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Citation trends for the AdS/CFT paper

Oct 11, 3:18 PMOct 19, 3:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

50

50

50

50

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