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Prediction markets for Pap

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

88.48%chance

336644389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11092

3630

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.75%chance

48190222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7361

4947

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 9:01 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

52.56%chance

8910858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

863

Which of the following parties will be in office on December 31, 2028?

Aug 9, 4:31 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

686265

OptionProbability

CCP (China)

BJP (India)

PAP (Singapore)

CDU (Germany)

United Russia (Russia)

LDP (Japan)

Labour (UK)

DPP (Taiwan)

Republican Party (USA)

Brothers of Italy (Italy)

TDP (Turkmenistan)

AKP (Turkey)

PT (Brazil)

DPK (South Korea)

PSOE (Spain)

PFDJ (Eritrea)

PSUV (Venezuela)

Democratic Party (USA)

Renaissance (France)

Likud (Israel)

SPD (Germany)

Fidesz (Hungary)

Liberal Party (Canada)

97

94

93

83

82

78

69

60

55

50

50

47

45

43

38

38

35

34

32

31

30

29

27

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

59.93%chance

395035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1223

818

Will any country stop using paper currency by end 2029?

Sep 9, 9:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.09%chance

422838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

926

Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2037

Dec 22, 7:04 PMJun 30, 6:59 AM

46.38%chance

161699

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

930

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

56.48%chance

31967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

753

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

71.61%chance

29939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

981

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.49%chance

14583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1340

435

Will "Auditing Games for Sandbagging [paper]" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 12:30 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Citation trends for the AdS/CFT paper

Oct 11, 3:18 PMOct 19, 3:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

50

50

50

50

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