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Prediction markets for Pap

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.32%chance

48290606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7778

4822

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 9:01 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

65.35%chance

10012641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

822

Which of the following parties will be in office on December 31, 2028?

Aug 9, 4:31 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

696537

OptionProbability

CCP (China)

BJP (India)

PAP (Singapore)

CDU (Germany)

United Russia (Russia)

LDP (Japan)

Labour (UK)

PT (Brazil)

DPP (Taiwan)

Republican Party (USA)

Brothers of Italy (Italy)

TDP (Turkmenistan)

AKP (Turkey)

DPK (South Korea)

PSOE (Spain)

PFDJ (Eritrea)

PSUV (Venezuela)

Democratic Party (USA)

Renaissance (France)

SPD (Germany)

Fidesz (Hungary)

Likud (Israel)

Liberal Party (Canada)

97

94

93

83

82

78

69

67

60

55

50

50

47

43

38

38

35

34

32

30

29

28

27

Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2028

Dec 22, 6:14 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

40.39%chance

282442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2037

Dec 22, 7:04 PMJun 30, 6:59 AM

60.92%chance

242190

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.16%chance

141222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1979

153

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

54.89%chance

32992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

721

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

71.61%chance

29939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

981

Will I join a Pen & Paper RPG in 2026?

Dec 31, 8:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.13%chance

10615

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

853

Will "Auditing Games for Sandbagging [paper]" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 12:30 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "A Review of Anthropic's Global Workspace Paper" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 8, 3:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Citation trends for the AdS/CFT paper

Oct 11, 3:18 PMOct 19, 3:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

50

50

50

50

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