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Prediction markets for Pap

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

55.95%chance

195271215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6053

3059

Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted (by 2025)?

Jul 26, 2:17 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

1.05%chance

144115514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

50587

234

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.4%chance

47990058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7184

5003

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?

Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

19.73%chance

807546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2305

320

Will SotA on PaperBench (Code-Dev) surpass 75% in 2025?

Apr 7, 1:59 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM

14.31%chance

117255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12235

2473

Which of the following parties will be in office on December 31, 2028?

Aug 9, 4:31 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

565147

OptionProbability

CCP (China)

PAP (Singapore)

BJP (India)

CDU (Germany)

United Russia (Russia)

LDP (Japan)

Labour (UK)

Fidesz (Hungary)

PSUV (Venezuela)

DPP (Taiwan)

Democratic Party (USA)

Brothers of Italy (Italy)

TDP (Turkmenistan)

AKP (Turkey)

PT (Brazil)

Republican Party (USA)

DPK (South Korea)

PSOE (Spain)

PFDJ (Eritrea)

Renaissance (France)

Likud (Israel)

SPD (Germany)

Liberal Party (Canada)

97

93

90

83

82

80

75

73

60

60

51

50

50

47

45

44

43

38

38

32

31

30

24

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

50%chance

364585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will any country stop using paper currency by end 2029?

Sep 9, 9:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.09%chance

422838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

926

Peer-reviewed paper in 2026 shows mycelial compounds effective against respiratory diseases?

Nov 12, 4:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.82%chance

102493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

721

Will there be a research paper that uses Manifold data and has 100 Google Scholar citations by the end of 2025?

Mar 1, 2:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.81%chance

221785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1910

222

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

13533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

481

Citation trends for the AdS/CFT paper

Oct 11, 3:18 PMOct 19, 3:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

50

50

50

50

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