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Pareto News
Prediction markets for Pareto
Prediction markets for Pareto
If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?
Feb 21, 7:29 PM
Jul 2, 6:59 AM
65.58%
chance
2
42
Option
Votes
NO
YES
138
72
Will a major AI alignment office (eg Constellation/Lightcone/HAIST) give out free piksters to alignment ppl by EOY 2027?
Mar 9, 7:51 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
43.06%
chance
1
15
Option
Votes
YES
NO
135
107
Will any of the 2016 Pareto Fellows end up with a MacArthur Fellowship by EOY 2040?
Aug 28, 11:57 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
50%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
100
100
Change my view, Arabic numerals are a pareto improvement on Roman numerals.
Aug 15, 2:00 PM
Aug 16, 3:59 AM
0
0
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