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Prediction markets for Paris

Which architectural team will win the Louvre Museum expansion competition (Paris)?

Oct 10, 11:13 PMMar 31, 11:03 PM

52306

OptionProbability

No winner announced by March 31 2026

Amanda Levete Architects (AL_A)

Architecture Studio + Diller Scofidio Renfro

Dubuisson Architecture + SANAA

Sou Fujimoto Ateliers Paris + Sou Fujimoto Architects

STUDIOS Architecture + Selldorf Architects

32

14

14

14

14

14

Will university fusion continue in Paris until only 1 huge one remain? (Before Nov. 2027)

Nov 6, 9:48 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

6.62%chance

8895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

382

78

Ramzan Kadyrov visits and publicly appears in London, Paris, Berlin, New York or Washington DC before 2032

May 11, 7:15 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

7.78%chance

10652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1602

997

Will Paris be the hub of AI in Europe by the end of 2027?

Oct 27, 2:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.62%chance

15547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

180

What will be the highest temperature in Paris in March 2026? (°C)

Feb 25, 9:52 AMFeb 25, 10:59 PM

7228

OptionProbability

Above 15°C

Above 17°C

Above 19°C

Above 21°C

Above 23°C

Above 25°C

97

94

69

50

50

45

Will "The Paris AI Anti-Safety Summit" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 13, 5:05 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11%chance

6184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

96

Rome-Paris Vactrain by 2070?

Dec 23, 11:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.28%chance

370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

71

Global warming will increase by at least 2.5° in 2050 and crushing the Paris Agreement.

Feb 20, 7:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.84%chance

634

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

141

Which of these countries will ratify the Paris Agreement before 2030?

Jan 3, 9:17 AMJan 5, 11:59 PM

226

OptionProbability

Libya

Yemen

Iran

43

43

37

Paris-London Vactrain by 2070?

Dec 24, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Paris gets a North-South TGV spine by 2050?

Dec 2, 12:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will a commercial non-stop flight between Paris and Bali exist before the end of 2027?

Nov 4, 4:11 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

60

42

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