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Top stories

Bill Gates Launches $1 Million AI Prize to Speed Alzheimer’s Breakthroughs

Bill Gates Launches $1 Million AI Prize to Speed Alzheimer’s Breakthroughs

Authors

13

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Parkinson

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.14%chance

421858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31528

3172

Will Joe Biden ever be formally diagnosed with Parkinson's?

Jul 8, 6:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.41%chance

206216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2786

359

Biological test for early detection of Parkinson's Disease by 2028

Apr 18, 3:55 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

95.04%chance

153212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3578

649

Will Parkinson's be curable by 2028

Aug 2, 4:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.93%chance

7426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

570

82

Biological test for early detection of Parkinson's Disease before 2031

Apr 25, 4:08 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

95.63%chance

4347

OptionVotes

NO

YES

433

33

Will the FDA approve a disease-modifying treatment for Parkinson's disease before 2029?

Apr 24, 9:48 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

57.64%chance

11292

OptionVotes

NO

YES

167

135

Will Bing diagnose Parkinson's disease in California on May 1 2035?

Mar 8, 5:41 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

79.43%chance

6235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

115

A biomarker test to measure progression for Parkinson's Disease is available in the US before 2029

Apr 25, 4:13 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

71.69%chance

6168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

146

89

Will there be an FDA approved cure for Parkinson's Disease by EOY 2032?

Mar 10, 6:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.12%chance

7113

OptionVotes

NO

YES

262

219

Will there be a treatment to stop Parkinson's progression in at least 10% of US patients by mid 2028

Feb 4, 5:00 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

18.29%chance

390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

71

Will "Parkinson's Law and the Ideology of Statistics" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 6, 3:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31.57%chance

360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

41

Will "Parkinson's Heuristic: The Only Time To Do An..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 14, 3:20 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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