Parliament Act News

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

Feb 2, 11:37 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

85.92%chance

415204

OptionVotes

YES

1910

754

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

YES

1134

954

Terminally Ill Adults Bill UK (assisted dying)

Feb 7, 2:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51861

OptionProbability

Bill reintroduced in 2026-27 session and passes both Houses

Parliament Act used in second session (2026-27) to pass bill

Bill reintroduced in 2026-27 session but fails again

Bill rejected at Lords Third Reading before EOY 2027

Bill stalls in Lords committee stage through EOY 2027

Bill passes Lords with significant amendments before EOY 2027

Bill receives royal assent before EOY 2027

Bill passes Lords with minimal amendments before EOY 2027

Bill passes Lords but Commons rejects Lords amendments before EOY 2027

Bill receives royal assent this parliamentary session

Next Canadian federal election by April 30th, 2027?

Apr 30, 5:32 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

14%chance

71613

OptionVotes

YES

2479

403

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.2%chance

101587

OptionVotes

YES

1328

753

When will the next UK general election be held?

Dec 16, 12:31 AMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

5535

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2030

Before Jan 2029

Before Jan 2028

Before Jan 2027

Before Jan 2026

Will Crossrail 2 be approved before 2030?

May 1, 8:34 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

32.85%chance

8196

OptionVotes

YES

123

Will a plan to connect Edinburgh to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2045?

May 1, 8:19 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

57.32%chance

697

OptionVotes

YES

Labour initiates legislation to reform or replace Human Rights Act before next election?

Jul 21, 9:50 AMAug 15, 12:00 AM

37.02%chance

585

OptionVotes

YES

130

Will Canada pass Bill C-22 in 2026?

May 20, 7:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.41%chance

573

OptionVotes

YES

162

Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)

Mar 12, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

145

China and Somaliland Sovereignty

Jan 13, 6:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

333

OptionProbability

Somaliland recognised by less than 30 UN members in 2030 / China doesn't recognise

Somaliland recognised by more than 29 and less than 150 UN members in 2030 / China doesn't recognise

Somaliland recognised by more than 149 UN members in 2030 / China doesn't recognise

*China recognises Somaliland*

Parliament Act News

Prediction markets for Parliament Act

Prediction markets for Parliament Act

Prediction markets for Parliament Act

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Terminally Ill Adults Bill UK (assisted dying)

Next Canadian federal election by April 30th, 2027?

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

When will the next UK general election be held?

Will Crossrail 2 be approved before 2030?

Will a plan to connect Edinburgh to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2045?

Labour initiates legislation to reform or replace Human Rights Act before next election?

Will Canada pass Bill C-22 in 2026?

Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)

China and Somaliland Sovereignty

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