Parliament Act News

Will a G7 country announce new quantum legislation within the next 2 months?

Jan 30, 6:26 AMApr 2, 6:18 AM

25.13%chance

446080

OptionVotes

YES

1726

579

Will Alberta leave Canada?

Dec 24, 1:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

104886

OptionProbability

Won’t leave before 2030

2029

2025

2026

2027

2028

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

YES

1134

954

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

Feb 2, 11:37 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

74.48%chance

313641

OptionVotes

YES

1134

936

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.07%chance

101522

OptionVotes

YES

1223

818

Terminally Ill Adults Bill UK (assisted dying)

Feb 7, 2:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31099

OptionProbability

Bill reintroduced in 2026-27 session and passes both Houses

Parliament Act used in second session (2026-27) to pass bill

Bill passes Lords with significant amendments before EOY 2027

Bill receives royal assent before EOY 2027

Bill reintroduced in 2026-27 session but fails again

Bill passes Lords with minimal amendments before EOY 2027

Bill passes Lords but Commons rejects Lords amendments before EOY 2027

Bill stalls in Lords committee stage through EOY 2027

Bill rejected at Lords Third Reading before EOY 2027

Bill receives royal assent this parliamentary session

Next Canadian federal election by April 30th, 2027?

Apr 30, 5:32 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

22.22%chance

61005

OptionVotes

YES

1871

535

Will Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?

Aug 24, 7:17 PMApr 10, 9:59 PM

15%chance

8270

OptionVotes

YES

238

Will a plan to connect Edinburgh to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2045?

May 1, 8:19 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

57.32%chance

697

OptionVotes

YES

Labour initiates legislation to reform or replace Human Rights Act before next election?

Jul 21, 9:50 AMAug 15, 12:00 AM

37.02%chance

585

OptionVotes

YES

130

Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)

Mar 12, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

145

China and Somaliland Sovereignty

Jan 13, 6:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

333

OptionProbability

Somaliland recognised by less than 30 UN members in 2030 / China doesn't recognise

Somaliland recognised by more than 29 and less than 150 UN members in 2030 / China doesn't recognise

Somaliland recognised by more than 149 UN members in 2030 / China doesn't recognise

*China recognises Somaliland*

Parliament Act News

Prediction markets for Parliament Act

Prediction markets for Parliament Act

Prediction markets for Parliament Act

Will a G7 country announce new quantum legislation within the next 2 months?

Will Alberta leave Canada?

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Terminally Ill Adults Bill UK (assisted dying)

Next Canadian federal election by April 30th, 2027?

Will Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?

Will a plan to connect Edinburgh to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2045?

Labour initiates legislation to reform or replace Human Rights Act before next election?

Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)

China and Somaliland Sovereignty

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