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Party of One News

    Prediction markets for Party of One

    Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries?

    Mar 25, 1:59 PMAug 8, 1:30 PM
    11528472

    OptionProbability

    J.B. Pritzker

    Gavin Newsom

    Pete Buttigieg

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Josh Shapiro

    Cory Booker

    Kamala Harris

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Amy Klobuchar

    Chris Murphy

    Raphael Warnock

    Deval Patrick

    Gina Raimondo

    J. B. Pritzker

    Jon Ossoff

    Steve Bullock

    Mark Kelly

    Andy Beshear

    Martin O'Malley

    Maura Healey

    Chris Coons

    Jeff Jackson

    Catherine Cortez Masto

    Katie Hobbs

    Tim Walz

    Tina Kotek

    Abigail Spanberger

    Michael Bennet

    Julián Castro

    Beto O'Rourke

    Bill de Blasio

    Jay Inslee

    Eric Swalwell

    Jared Polis

    Ro Khanna

    Roy Cooper

    Cornel West

    Tom Steyer

    Wayne Messam

    Kirsten Gillibrand

    Mitch Landrieu

    Tammy Duckworth

    Tammy Baldwin

    Tim Kaine

    Marianne Williamson

    Wes Moore

    John Fetterman

    Dean Phillips

    Michelle Obama

    Laphonza Butler

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    Steven Kenneth Bonnell II

    66

    48

    31

    24

    22

    18

    16

    16

    10

    9

    9

    7

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    What will happen as a result of the Charlie Kirk assassination?

    Sep 11, 7:17 PMSep 11, 7:13 PM
    23718112

    OptionProbability

    Shooter captured alive before Oct. 1st

    Charlie Kirk receives Presidential Medal of Freedom

    Evan permabanned from Manifold

    Charlie Kirk is the most viewed article on Wikipedia in 2025

    Any left-wing group is legally designated as a "terrorist organization"

    Jimmy Kimmel is reinstated.

    Jimmy Kimmel returns to air on Sinclair stations

    Charlie Kirk dies

    Charlie Kirk remains no longer alive

    government employee fired for personal statements on kirk is reinstated or wins employment/first amendment lawsuit about firing

    Over 1 million combined lifetime student memberships and faith initiatives by Nov 2026

    South Park does an episode that alludes to it

    event with left leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

    Another political assassination (either side)

    At least once person is hospitalized or killed in a violent incident started by someone who thinks they are retaliating for Kirk's death

    Trump initiates a large-scale crackdown on civil liberties in response.

    Any House Democrat is censured for comments on Kirk.

    Search warrant/subpoena executed against a journalist citing social media posts about the shooting

    South Park episode canceled (not delayed)

    BBC does piece on furries that mentions Tyler Robinson

    Trump invokes the Insurrection Act and/or declares martial law.

    The FCC revokes a station’s broadcast license over any misinformation about Kirk.

    Federal bill/EO to restrict/prevent transgender gun ownership

    event with right leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

    A prominent anti-Trump journalist is arrested.

    "Groyper War 3" declared by Nick Fuentes or one of his generals

    Jezebel writer Claire Guinan testifies that she doesn't believe in witchcraft.

    Statue of Charlie Kirk erected in the capitol

    Information reward money paid

    high ranking fed (elected, political appointee, or LEO) acting in an official capacity names a suspect later exonerated

    Actblue specifically is labelled a terrorist organization or shut down

    Kirk or the assassination referenced explicitly in super bowl ad

    arson attack against gender clinic

    At least one furry convention canceled

    Robinson's roommate charged with any crime related to the assassination

    At least 10 people deported because of anti-Charlie Kirk comments

    TPUSA supports a gun control bill

    Any Democratic politician is arrested

    5+ reporters/columnists fired (across any outlets)

    Upcoming issues of Absolute Batman pulled

    Search warrant/subpoena executed against an individual citing social media posts about the shooting

    Federal investigation started into "funders" of "the left"

    Any news organization is shut down

    Any left-wing NGO is shut down

    A member of a prominent left-leaning organization is arrested.

    A furry website is hacked and the users are doxxed

    80s-style moral panic over furries

    Another left-wing group is legally declared a terrorist organization.

    NYT reporter / opinion columnist fired

    "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" ends, or Jimmy Kimmel is fired/resigns

    Seth Meyers fired, or show cancelled.

    Increased stigma towards sexual "deviants" in the US

    Federal bill named in tribute to Charlie Kirk is signed into law

    At least 100 people are arrested on Antifa charges.

    Jimmy Fallon fired, or show cancelled.

    National Guard deployed to anywhere in Utah (explicitly linked to Kirk)

    Kash Patel fired

    South Park canceled

    Discord or Bluesky removed from the App Store or Play Store

    America becomes a one-party GOP state.

    5 swatting attacks reported on (not before) 9/12

    Trump receives a “rally around the flag” bump in approval ratings (net approval increases by more than 3 points in the following two weeks according to silver bulletin)

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    99

    90

    77

    47

    37

    34

    32

    28

    28

    24

    24

    22

    22

    20

    18

    18

    17

    17

    16

    15

    15

    15

    15

    14

    14

    12

    12

    11

    11

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    8

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    6

    5

    5

    5

    1

    0

    0

    0

    Who will win at least one state in the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries?

    Mar 25, 2:30 PMAug 8, 1:30 PM
    12416132

    OptionProbability

    J. D. Vance

    Nikki Haley

    Glenn Youngkin

    Marco Rubio

    Ron DeSantis

    Ted Cruz

    Tucker Carlson

    Pete Hegseth

    Brian Kemp

    Josh Hawley

    Doug Burgum

    Will Hurd

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Marjorie Taylor Greene

    Tom Cotton

    Rick Scott

    Todd Young

    Joni Ernst

    Markwayne Mullin

    Chris Sununu

    Elise Stefanik

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Franciz Suarez

    Mike Johnson

    Greg Abbott

    Byron Donalds

    Chris Christie

    Rand Paul

    Kristi Noem

    Mike Lee

    Kim Reynolds

    Dan Crenshaw

    Katie Britt

    Tim Scott

    Mike Pence

    Donald Trump

    Sarah Huckabee Sanders

    Mike Pompeo

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Liz Cheney

    Matt Gaetz

    72

    27

    23

    23

    14

    13

    12

    12

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    9

    9

    9

    9

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    4

    3

    What will the Party distribution of the next 2 US presidential terms be? (2029-2037) [> 6k Liquidity]

    Jul 29, 11:48 AMMay 31, 9:59 PM
    148511

    OptionProbability

    D-R

    D-D

    R-D

    R-R

    one or more Third Party terms

    Other

    Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection

    Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection

    Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection

    Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection

    26

    25

    22

    17

    3

    3

    1

    1

    1

    1

    What Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election?

    Jul 12, 5:20 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM
    324911

    OptionProbability

    One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK

    5 or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK in a coordinated way

    Weak electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 500 or fewer constituencies

    Strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 100 or fewer constituencies

    The leaders of Reform UK and the Conservative Party announce a merge of the parties

    Very strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives do not run against each other in any constituencies

    One or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party

    3 or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party in a coordinated way

    Richard Tice defects to the Conservative Party

    Nigel Farage defects to the Conservative Party

    100

    39

    29

    25

    24

    15

    14

    14

    12

    9

    How will the 🇬🇧 Liberal Democrats and Green Party co-operate before the next General Election?

    Feb 28, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    71216

    OptionProbability

    Soft electoral pact: parties do not actively campaign in seats where the other stands a strong chance of success

    The parties have issued a joint press statement

    Hard electoral pact: parties do not stand against each other in seats they contest

    The parties have merged into one

    45

    43

    17

    5

    Will there a 3rd party candidate win at least one state in the US presidential election before the US adds a 51st state

    Mar 31, 9:31 PMDec 8, 4:59 AM
    24.21%chance
    9351

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    331

    189

    Will India officially become a One party country/nation before the end of 2030? (Similar to China's political system)

    Jan 24, 4:57 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
    14.71%chance
    7338

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    222

    65

    How many female British PMs will be Tories before another party elects one?

    Apr 22, 1:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    9280

    OptionProbability

    3-4

    4-5

    5-6

    6-7

    7-8

    8-9

    9-10

    10-11

    11-12

    12-13

    84

    14

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    What would be the odds for the following people to win the 2028 US election if nominated by one of the two main parties?

    Mar 11, 4:40 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM
    7117

    OptionProbability

    Donald Trump(Sr)

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Pete Buttigieg

    Tim Walz

    Michelle Obama

    Steven Bonell (Destiny)

    Gavin Newsom

    Ron DeSantis

    Josh Shapiro

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Tim Scott

    Nikki Haley

    Andy Beshear

    Glenn Youngkin

    Kamala Harris

    J.D. Vance

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    67

    61

    60

    57

    56

    53

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    47

    41

    30

    Will at least one country besides South Korea enact Sending Party Network Pays (SPNP) laws/taxes before Jan 1st 2030?

    Dec 6, 11:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    72.6%chance
    875

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    228

    139

    Will the 21st Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party, to be selected in 2027, include at least one woman?

    Mar 27, 3:20 AMJan 27, 3:59 PM
    52.05%chance
    561

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    126

    91

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